Agricultural Injury Severity Prediction Using Integrated Data-Driven Analysis: Global Versus Local Explainability Using SHAP

Abstract Despite the agricultural sector’s consistently high injury rates, formal reporting is often limited, leading to sparse national datasets that hinder effective safety interventions. To address this, our study introduces a comprehensive framework leveraging advanced ensemble machine learning (ML) models to predict and interpret the severity of agricultural injuries. We use a unique, manually curated dataset of over 2,400 agricultural incidents from AgInjuryNews, a public repository of news reports detailing incidents across the United States. We evaluated six ensemble models, including Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, AdaBoost, HistGradientBoosting, and Random Forest, for their accuracy in classifying injury outcomes as fatal or non-fatal. A key contribution of our work is the novel integration of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), specifically SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to overcome the “black-box” nature of complex ensemble models. The models demonstrated strong predictive performance, with most achieving an accuracy of approximately 0.71 and an F1-score of 0.81. Through global SHAP analysis, we identified key factors influencing injury severity across the dataset, such as the presence of helmet use, victim age, and the type of injury agent. Additionally, our application of local SHAP analysis revealed how specific variables like location and victim’s role can have varying impacts depending on the context of the incident. These findings provide actionable, context-aware insights for developing targeted policy and safety interventions for a range of stakeholders, from first responders to policymakers, offering a powerful tool for a more proactive approach to agricultural safety. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This study was funded and supported by Injury Prevention Research Center and The Iowa Initiative for Artificial Intelligence at University of Iowa. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Footnotes This manuscript is an medRxiv preprint and has been submitted for possible publication in a peer reviewed journal. Please note that this has not been peer-reviewed before and is currently undergoing peer review for the first time. Subsequent versions of this manuscript may have slightly different content. Data Availability All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors