Divergent Responses of Historic Rain-on-Snow Flood Extremes to a Warmer Climate

Divergent Responses of Historic Rain-on-Snow Flood Extremes to a Warmer Climate | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Divergent Responses of Historic Rain-on-Snow Flood Extremes to a Warmer Climate Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Donghui Xu, Mukesh Kumar, L. Ruby Leung This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5743376/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 May, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global warming is expected to shift high-impact flood risks induced by rain-on-snow (ROS). However, decision-makers lack guidance on how impactful events resembling historic ROS extreme floods with destructive consequences would unfold in a warmer climate. Using a kilometer-scale storyline analysis, we examine warming-induced changes in four historically-significant, decision-relevant ROS extreme flood events over the contiguous United States. The runoff of different extreme events shows divergent responses to a warmer climate due to altered water budget. Notably, the basin-wide runoff of 2017-Jan California flood event (2017CA-Jan) increases by ~53%/K. Warming shifts flood generating regimes along the elevation profile. Driven by increasing rainfall and snowmelt, high elevations could experience significantly increased runoff and unprecedented floods in a warmer climate. For 2017CA-Jan, runoff increases at ~162%/K over the regions above 1500 m. Low elevations encounter a shift in the flood regime from ROS-driven to rainfall-dominated due to increasing rainfall and diminished snowmelt. These underscore needs for a warming-adaptive, regime-customized strategy for flood control. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ROSSIsubmitted.pdf Supplementary_Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 May, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5743376","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":403205588,"identity":"2776abf4-6ba3-40c2-94b9-efad7f38186d","order_by":0,"name":"Dalei Hao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA8wNDAkMBxgY2BuAvAKitDBCtfAAMYMBsVoYQFokEojUwnf8YOODBwx35Pkl3x57XGDAYNcP1osHSJ5JbDZIYHhmOHN2XrrxDAOG5JkzCGgxOJDYBjT2MOOG2zlm0jxALQZnDhDQcv5h+w+gFvsNN88Qq+VGYhswxA4nbrjBA9ZiZ3C8gYBfbjxslkgwOJw8sycvDahFIkGynYAWvvPJBz/+qDhs289+9pg0T4WNPT8zfh0w54EIHhAhkUjADhQA1sJgT4KOUTAKRsEoGCEAAOu9RkGRjj3eAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7154-6332","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dalei","middleName":"","lastName":"Hao","suffix":""},{"id":403205589,"identity":"d73e5779-e0a3-4e40-aaf5-eae8bc1c5fba","order_by":1,"name":"Gautam Bisht","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Lab","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gautam","middleName":"","lastName":"Bisht","suffix":""},{"id":403205590,"identity":"fb7c8fa2-5d09-47b1-8978-07fdcb834072","order_by":2,"name":"Donghui Xu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2859-2664","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Donghui","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":403205591,"identity":"045cbe8b-9a5a-4008-bfea-ae25fdd2589a","order_by":3,"name":"Mukesh Kumar","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7114-9978","institution":"University of Alabama","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mukesh","middleName":"","lastName":"Kumar","suffix":""},{"id":403205592,"identity":"ce6f1acf-9b19-4402-87ee-16f241c5e461","order_by":4,"name":"L. 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