Do Budget Deficits Benefit or Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from African Countries Applying a Threshold Analysis

Do Budget Deficits Benefit or Harm Economic Growth? 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Evidence from African Countries Applying a Threshold Analysis Samwel Mwigeka This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5724961/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Economic expansion in recent years has been linked to a sharp increase in budget deficits. It is therefore imperative to cross-check their relationship. The study uses system GMM, quasi maximum likelihood, and bias-corrected dynamic panel estimator for estimation using panel data from 1996 to 2022. The findings show that budget deficits and economic growth have a statistically significant positive association. The study has determined a threshold value through a dynamic panel threshold model in gauging the effect of budget deficits on economic growth. The results indicate a single threshold impact that produced a threshold level of 14.3% thus confirming the prevalence of a non-linear relationship. The findings show that budget deficits significantly harm the upper regime on economic growth and show mean-reverting behavior over the threshold. The results recommend that governments expand their tax base for government revenue by prioritizing strengthening revenue authorities and reducing spending on recurrent budgets. Development Economics Macroeconomics Economic growth budget deficits dynamic panel threshold model system GMM Figures Figure 1 1: Introduction In recent years countries have expanded their expenditures in various sectors to foster economic growth following the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Additionally, nations everywhere aim to preserve sustainable economic growth and macroeconomic stability. In this sense, rising government spending above and beyond government revenue is mostly responsible for growing budget deficits. The global crisis that persisted from mid-year 2007 to early 2009 and the response to COVID-19 also appeared to blow up government spending as governments attempted to comprehend the economic effects of the lockdowns, further aggravating the fiscal imbalance (Okwoche & Nikolaidou, 2022 ; Leshoro, 2022). The two major events motivated the introduction of a stimulus package to rescue the economic crises. In many African and developing nations, a continuous and steadily growing government deficit and debt are major issues (Leshoro, 2022). However, it is believed that budget deficits are not necessarily bad, especially when utilized according to plans. However, recently there have been controversial discussions due to their steady increase in developed and developing nations. Amid the increased pressure on government expenditure which did not correspond to the government revenue created budget deficits in developing countries including African countries. Awolaja and Esefo (2020) have exposed the outcome of various means of financing government budget deficits. When the budget deficit requires borrowing from commercial banks interest rates would rise. The ultimate consequence of higher interest rates will be the flight of private investors. Inflation would most likely result if the deficit is funded by central bank borrowing or money printing. Utilizing external financing is expected to result in currency appreciation due to the foreign exchange inflow, which will worsen the current account balance and reduce exports. The building of external debt stock resulting from the poor utilization of funding from all sources may ultimately lead to a debt crisis. During recessions, governments are urged to run deficits because they will help stabilize the economy, by referring to the Keynesian school of thought, which maintains that budget deficits and economic growth are positively correlated. Conversely, the liberal theory asserts the contrary. The monetarist theory has challenged the Keynesian finance and budget deficit policies because they prioritized debt and taxes. It has been shown that financing budget deficits through taxes affects investment demand and private consumption negatively while funding through debts raises interest rates thus dampening private investments. It is essential to trace the threshold value that might enable policymakers to avoid or minimize the detrimental effects of government deficits. The threshold model for dynamic panel data has been employed that was developed by Seo and Shin ( 2016 ) which was later redefined by Seo et al. ( 2019 ). Among the thresholds set in the national context and others in the country grouping are the following studies: Leshoro (2022) established a deficit threshold of 3% of GDP for South Africa, Iqbal et al. ( 2017 ) found a deficit threshold value of 5.57% of GDP for Pakistan, Slimani (2016) and Adam and Bevan ( 2005 ) established a budget deficit threshold level of 4.8% and 1.5% respectively for particular developing nations. Lastly, the work aims to address any endogeneity and cross-section dependence difficulties because research on Africa has not thoroughly explored the usage of system GMM, quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, and bias-corrected estimator. Determining which of the three philosophical systems is most appropriate for Africa is essential. However, the study's target is to trace out the threshold level of fiscal deficits that will have a favorable impact on economic expansion. The remainder of this document has been structured as follows: The corpus of current literature is discussed in Section 2 . Section 3 presents the model that is based on the underlying theoretical framework of the study. The regression findings are also shown and discussed in Section 4 . Section 5 wraps up and provides some suggestions and conclusion remarks. 2: Literature review 2.1: Theoretical literature The effects of budget deficits on macroeconomic variables are explained by the following schools of thought: the Neo-classical School, the Ricardian Equivalence School, and the Keynesian School. According to the "crowding-in" effect, a budget deficit boosts the economy, conferring to the Keynesian School of thought. The theory posits the role of budget deficits to stimulate aggregate demand ‘‘increases market size’’ in the economy, especially during periods of recessions and depressions. There are several studies whose results support the Keynesian School of thought, among others including the following: Leshoro (2022), Aragaw ( 2021 ), Awolaja and Esefo (2020), Bhari et. al., ( 2020 ), Slimani (2016), Mohanty (2013), Odhiambo et al. ( 2013 ), Buscemi and Yallwe ( 2012 ), Adam and Bevan ( 2005 ), and Al-Khedair (1996). As long as they stay below the threshold and are a temporary occurrence, budget deficits have shown a positive effect on economic growth, according to these literary works. The Ricardian equivalence, this perspective implies that individuals anticipate future tax liabilities and adjust their saving behavior accordingly, ultimately neutralizing the effects of fiscal policy on overall demand. Consequently, any increase in government borrowing is offset by a corresponding increase in private savings, leading to a situation where the net impact on the economy remains unchanged. According to the hypothesis, households consider it when determining how much to invest and save, and they choose to increase their savings to balance out the possible tax increase. Consumption in the economy thus falls, and the economy is unaffected by the rise in government spending financed by a deficit. The findings offering credence to the Ricardian Equivalence theory include the following: (Kelikume, 2016 ; Darrat, 1990; Findlay, 1990 ; and Ostrosky; 1990 ). The neo-classical school of thought holds that budget deficits discourage private investment and raise real interest rates, which impede economic progress. There are fewer funds available for private sector investments, and borrowing becomes more costly as a result of the selling of government bonds, which frequently boosts interest rates and incentivizes the private sector to spend more on bonds. It reduces the amount of output and resource use over time, which is harmful to economic expansion. Some studies offering evidence on the theory include Pamba ( 2022 ); Mwigeka ( 2016 ); Asogwa and Okeke ( 2013 ); Cebula and Cuellar ( 2010 ); Furceri and Sousa ( 2009 ); Krueger ( 2003 ); and Cebula ( 1985 ). 2.2: Empirical literature Leshoro (2022) revealed a nonlinear correlation with a threshold value of -3.6 percent in South Africa's economy using the quarterly dataset (1996Q3 to 2021Q2) with the application of the threshold autoregressive (TAR) techniques and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). With a threshold value of 0.152 percent, Aragaw ( 2021 ) using a dynamic panel threshold analysis found similar results for emerging countries. A threshold value of 5.57 percent of gross domestic product is harmful to Pakistan's economic growth, claim Iqbal et al. ( 2017 ). Sliman et al. (2016) adopted Hansen's (1999) method to determine the threshold effect of fiscal policy on economic growth for forty developing countries from 1990 to 2012. The data observed a double threshold impact, with a budgetary deficit of approximately 4.8% and a fiscal surplus level of 3.2% of GDP. Adam and Bevan ( 2005 ) established evidence of a threshold value of about 1.5 percent of GDP for 45 developing countries, indicating that a fiscal deficit below that level would damage economic growth. Gyasi ( 2020 ) examined the budget deficits' long-term significant effects on the Moroccan economy using the ARDL cointegration approach. The following studies give evidence on the prevalence of the positive short-run effect of budget deficits on economic growth for studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa and Malaysia such as Bhar et al. (2020) and Awolaja and Esefo (2020), respectively. These studies have appeared to be supported by the Keynesian school of thought with an assumption that budget deficits foster economic growth. The Keynesian theory was confirmed by Kanchori (2020), who exposed a high linkage between economic growth and budget deficits for Kenyan data spanning 2001 to 2019. Nayab ( 2015 ) examined Pakistan's economy and the results align with the conclusion from Kanchori (2020). The role of budget deficits in the Eurozone was also studied by Eroğlu et al. ( 2014 ) using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2011Q4, insignificant long-term results were displayed along with a positive short-term impact. Odhiambo et al. ( 2013 ) investigated the impact of budget deficits on Kenyan growth and discovered that they have a positive effect. By utilizing data covering 1990 to 2009 for several BRICS member states using a general method of moments (GMM) technique for dynamic panels, Buscemi and Yallwe ( 2012 ) supported the Keynesian premise. Concurrently, Kimaro et al. ( 2017 ) using the generalized method of moments (GMM) demonstrated a positive connection between government spending and economic growth for Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, Aworinde ( 2013 ) found comparable results regarding the effect of budget deficits on economic performance in twelve (12) African countries using the ARDL and VAR models. Finally, a 2007 study by Bose et al., which used panel data from 30 rising nations to assess the association between public spending and economic growth, showed that budget deficits inhibit economic advancement. Kelikume ( 2016 ) found that interest rates were neutral and insensitive to budget deficits using data for sub-Saharan Africa and the impulse response function (IRF) from the panel VAR. The findings suggest evidence for the Ricardian as unchanged interest rates do not affect investment. Interest rate neutrality also indicated that economic growth was neutral. Rahman ( 2012 ) suggests no evidence of a long-term relationship between budget deficits and economic growth using quarterly data from Malaysia. The prevailing empirical research presents inconsistent results about how the budget deficit threshold affects economic growth due to variations in threshold estimate techniques and the countries included in the sample. The budget deficit threshold effects are reexamined in this paper using a novel estimate technique that permits heterogeneity and a smooth transition of regression coefficients between regimes. A country's or region's level of development dictates the direction of association between budget deficits and economic growth, and regional characteristics have altered the type of association between the variables. 3: Data and Methodology applied in the Study 3.1: Description of Data and Sources The analysis uses data from 30 African countries over 27 years (1996–2022), resulting in 810 observations (i.e., panel data: where T = 27, and N = 30). The countries included have solely been determined by data availability, countries that had little data on the variables under consideration were excluded. The major sources of data include the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The application of panel data has advantages, including shields for biased sample selection, owing to omitted variables, Lucas et.al. (2017). Panel data has increased precision in estimation, controlling for individual effects, modeling heterogeneity across individuals, and modeling dynamic behaviors of individuals (Bond, 2002, and Greene, 2012). 3.2: System GMM Model: Aisen and Hauner (2008) suggest the use of system GMM given its superiority over other models as provides efficient estimation. System GMM expands Difference GMM by estimating simultaneous levels and differences, the two distinctly instrumented equations. More rigorous assessments of the instruments' validity significantly address the issue of weak instruments and offer the possibility of increased efficiency (Aisen and Hauner, 2008). Based on these assumptions, the system GMM estimator proposes using differences \(\:\varDelta\:{d}_{i,t-1}\) as a new set of tools for the lagged dependent variable's levels \(\:{d}_{i,t-1}\) . As a result, it uses a fresh set of internal tools that were unavailable to the earlier GMM estimators (Acemoglu et al., 2008). Arellano and Bover (1995), and further modification by Blundell and Bond (1998) introduced the system GMM as an enhancement of the standard or basic difference GMM estimator. As seen below, it estimates using both levels (original) and difference equations. Level equation: \(\:{y}_{i,t}=\delta\:{y}_{i,t-1}+\alpha\:{x}_{i,t}+{\mu\:}_{i}+{\epsilon\:}_{i,t}\) (1) Differenced equation: \(\:{y}_{i,t}-{y}_{i,t-1}=\delta\:\left({y}_{i,t-1}-{y}_{i,t-2}\right)+\alpha\:\left({x}_{i,t}-{x}_{i,t-1}\right)+\left({\epsilon\:}_{i,t}-{\epsilon\:}_{i,t-1}\right)\) $$\:{\varDelta\:y}_{i,t}=\delta\:{\varDelta\:y}_{i,t-1}+\alpha\:\varDelta\:{x}_{i,t}+\varDelta\:{\epsilon\:}_{i,t}\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:\:$$ 2 Somewhat than subtracting the prior observation from the current or contemporaneous value, the system GMM employs orthogonal deviations. It takes the mean for all observations of a variable and gets subtracted. In contrast to difference GMM estimators, it minimizes information loss because it can be computed for all observations, except for the final one for each individual. In estimating dynamic panel data such as the system GMM estimator, it uses all the difference moment conditions and this extra set of level moment criteria. In achieving the desired outcome, it merges the level and difference equations into a single, larger set of equations (Roodman, 2009). The following is the specification's functional form: Starting with defining the growth rate: $$\:{logGDP\_capita}_{it}-{logGD{P}_{capita}}_{it-4}={\varDelta\:logGD{P}_{capita}}_{it}={gdpgrowth}_{it}$$ 3 Growth rate = \(\:{gdpgrowth}_{it}\) It then follows the system GMM equations at levels Eq. ( 4 ) and at difference Eq. ( 5 ): where \(\:{y}_{it}\) denotes the dependent variable in the country \(\:i\:\) in period \(\:t\) ; \(\:\:{x}_{it}\) is a vector of regressors; \(\:{v}_{it}\) is the error term \(\:{\delta\:}_{i}\) is the country-specific effect, and \(\:{\mu\:}_{t}\) is the time-specific effect that captures global shocks The GDP per capita change in this instance has been measured for four years (all lags are four years, hence the lagged figures for 2000 are derived from 1996). By utilizing the four-year averages of the data, it assures roughly that the short-run cyclical simultaneity between fiscal performance and economic development can be removed as suggested by Adam and Bevan (2003), and Devarajan et al. ( 1996 ). Furthermore, it takes into consideration that growth effects frequently have an unknown lag before being apparent. The system GMM can resolve the endogeneity of some explanatory variables, serial correlation, and heteroskedasticity (Leitao, 2010; Baum et al., 2003 ). Furthermore, using a system GMM estimator significantly lowers the finite sample bias while simultaneously increasing precision (Arellano and Honore, 2001; Blundell et al., 2000). 3.3.1: Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator According to Kripfganz ( 2016 ), if all presumptions are satisfied and the time horizon is brief, the QML estimate may be able to assist in resolving the endogeneity of a lagged explained variable in the employed linear dynamic panel data models. Including time-invariant variables and using full-information maximum likelihood to handle missing data are two benefits of the model: dynamic panel data using maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling. Because it additionally incorporates lagged endogenous regressors, it guarantees the potential to account for confounders and unobserved variables. The following function form represents the setup for the equation to be estimated: \(\:{y}_{it}=\lambda\:{y}_{it-1}+{x}_{it}^{{\prime\:}}\beta\:+{w}_{i}^{{\prime\:}}\delta\:+{\alpha\:}_{i}+{\xi\:}_{t}+{v}_{it}\) (t = 1..., T) (i = 1…, N) Whereby; \(\:{x}_{it}^{{\prime\:}}\) is a vector of sequentially exogenous time-varying variables ( \(\:k\times\:1)\) , \(\:{\:y}_{it}\) is the value of y for an individual \(\:i\) at time \(\:t,\) \(\:\beta\:\) is a \(\:k\times\:1\) vector of unknown coefficients, \(\:{\:w}_{i}^{{\prime\:}}\) is a vector of time-invariant, strictly exogenous variables, \(\:{\xi\:}_{t}\) captures unobserved common factors across units in the panel, \(\:{\alpha\:}_{i}\) is the unobservable time-invariant fixed effect, and \(\:{v}_{it}\) is the time-varying error term (assumed to be independently distributed across \(\:i\) and \(\:t\) . Using Monte Carlo experiments, Phillips ( 2017 ) and Hayakawa et al. ( 2018 ) discovered that quasi-maximum likelihood estimators have significantly fewer biases and, thus, smaller root mean squared errors than difference and system GMM. With strong standard errors and cross-sectional heterogeneity, the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator has shown promise in accounting for serial correlation (Falk et al., 2023 ). Furthermore, it has been shown that by modeling the initial observations of the explained variable as a function of changes in the future values of the exogenous variables for which the coefficients are to be estimated, quasi-maximum likelihood estimation diminishes the issue of Nickel bias (correlation between the lagged dependent variable and the error term) as noted from scholars such as Falk et al., ( 2023 ), and Oliveira et al. ( 2024 ). 3.3.2: Bias-Corrected Method of Moments Estimator In addressing the weak-instrument issue with the GMM approach, the study also uses an alternative model, which is an extension of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators created by Hayakawa and Pesaran (2015) and Hsiao et al. ( 2002 ), among others. Both fixed and random impacts of dynamic panel models can be estimated using this approach. It also includes time-invariant regressors and orthogonality assumptions. Chudik and Pesaran (2017) demonstrated that, in comparison to alternative estimators, a straightforward bias-corrected technique of moments has good power performance and is free from size distortions. The approach works accordingly if the size of panel units tends to endlessness and the temporal horizon is fixed. 3.4: Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model It is unclear how the fiscal deficit affects economic growth, as evidenced by several research that supports the Keynesian hypothesis and others that support the neoclassical theory (negative correlation) (Iqbal et al., 2017 ). Therefore, the existence of a threshold level of budgetary deficits is proposed, which provides the amount of fiscal expansion that can stimulate economic growth. Seo & Shin ( 2016 ) modified Hansen's 1999 model to include dynamic panels. By applying the first difference to the general form of the GMM, Seo and Shin ( 2016 ) created a first difference two-stage least square (2SLS). Seo et al. ( 2019 ) have provided the utmost detailed current form of the dynamic panel threshold technique, that employs a time-efficient bootstrapping mechanism. The GMM system, which tackles endogeneity and simultaneity in the context of the link between explained and explanatory factors, is the foundation of the technique Seo et al. ( 2019 ) and (Hu and Wang, 2024 ). According to Seo et al. ( 2019 ), it is the only threshold technique that permits the treatment of one threshold variable in a model and does not take into consideration multiple thresholds. The current model, created by Seo and Shin ( 2016 ) and then improved by Seo et al. ( 2019 ), has been used by numerous researchers, such as Alam and Anwar ( 2018 ), Gong and Seo ( 2023 ), and Hu and Wang ( 2024 ). This is how it appears: $$\:{y}_{it}=\left(1,{x}_{it}^{{\prime\:}},{c}_{it}^{{\prime\:}}\:\right){\beta\:}_{1}I\left({q}_{it}\le\:\gamma\:\right)+\left(1,{x}_{it}^{{\prime\:}},{c}_{it}^{{\prime\:}}\right){\beta\:}_{2}I\left({q}_{it}>\gamma\:\right)+{\epsilon\:}_{it};\:{\epsilon\:}_{it}={\alpha\:}_{i}+{v}_{it}$$ $$\:n=1,\dots\:,n;\:\:t=1,\dots\:,\:T$$ It can also be expressed as follows; $$\:{y}_{it}=\left\{\begin{array}{c}{\alpha\:}_{i}+{\beta\:}_{1}^{{\prime\:}}{x}_{it}+{v}_{it}\\\:{\alpha\:}_{i}+{\beta\:}_{2}^{{\prime\:}}{x}_{it}+{v}_{it}\end{array}\right.\:\begin{array}{c}{q}_{it}\le\:\gamma\:\\\:{q}_{it}>\gamma\:\end{array}$$ The panel has to be balanced where \(\:\left\{{y}_{it};\:{q}_{it},\:{x}_{it}:1\le\:i\le\:n,\:1\le\:t\le\:T\right\}\) where \(\:{c}_{it}^{{\prime\:}}\) encompasses a vector of control variables, \(\:{x}_{it}\) is the \(\:{k}_{t}\times\:1\) vector of time-varying explanatory variables of interest, which may include the lagged explained variable, and \(\:{y}_{it}\) is a scalar stochastic variable of interest. \(\:{q}_{it}\) is the threshold (transition) variable, γ is the threshold parameter that divides the equation into two regimes with coefficients \(\:{\beta\:}_{1}\) and \(\:{\beta\:}_{2}\) , and \(\:I\left\{\bullet\:\right\}\:\) is an indicator function that can be either equal to 1 or 0 depending on the condition term as applied by Gong and Seo ( 2023 ), and Hu and Wang ( 2024 ). The error term \(\:{\epsilon\:}_{it}\) is made up of two error components: \(\:{v}_{it}\) is a zero mean idiosyncratic random disturbance that is assumed to be identically and independently distributed (iid) of zero mean and constant variance, and \(\:{\alpha\:}_{i}\) is an unobserved individual fixed effect that accounts for time-invariant country-specific characteristics. In fitting data of our interest to the model described above, it generates the following basic model for analysis: $$\:{EG}_{it}=\left(1,{BD}_{it}\right){\beta\:}_{1}I\left({q}_{it}\le\:\gamma\:\right)+\left(1,BD\right){\beta\:}_{2}I\left({q}_{it}\ge\:\gamma\:\right)+\alpha\:{c}_{it}+{\epsilon\:}_{it}\:\:n=1,\dots\:n;\:t=1,\dots\:,T$$ Where \(\:{c}_{it}\) represent other regressors applied in the model, and \(\:\alpha\:\) is the vector of parameters. Noteworthy, it has been shown that in a dynamic panel threshold, the lagged explained variable and explanatory factors are also permissible to be endogenous when endogeneity problems occur. 4: Presentation of the Results and Discussion 4.1: Descriptive analysis of the variables The descriptive output of the skewness statistics shows that most of the variables are favorably positively skewed when foreign direct investment, terms of trade, the consumer price index, and the real interest rate are excluded. Additionally, the distribution of GDP growth, terms of trade, budget deficits, consumer price index, general government debt, real interest rate, foreign direct investment, and government spending on education is considered leptokurtic, according to the results of the kurtosis statistic. Conversely, variables like trade openness and the real exchange rate are regarded as platykurtic since their values are less than three. [ Table I here] 4.2: Correlation matrix analysis The findings in Table 2 show how the explanatory variables and economic growth (GDP growth) are related, as supported by the theories and additional research. Growth and the budget deficit have been demonstrated to be strongly positively correlated. Growth is also significantly positively correlated with trade openness and foreign direct investment. Government investment in education has been found to positively correlate with growth, however, this relationship is not statistically significant. The variables that have shown a negative relationship with growth are the real interest rate, total government debt, consumer price index, real exchange rate, and terms of trade. Additionally, the study's findings demonstrate that the variables to be used do not exhibit multicollinearity. [Table II here] 4.3: Scatter plot diagram In supplementing the above estimation, the study applies a scatter plot for budget deficits against GDP growth our dependent variable. Since the diagrammatic association between the two variables under examination does not reflect a pattern of their direction relationship, whether positive or negative, the scatter plot (Fig. 1) suggests that there is most likely a nonlinear relationship between them. The estimation and the description appear to coincide, based on the dynamic panel threshold model. [Figure 1 here] 4.4: Panel Unit Root Test Analysis The study inspects the possibility of stationarity for the data under consideration, it employs testing methods such as Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) and Harris-Tzavalis (HT) unit root test. The outputs presented in Table 3 advocate that the null hypothesis of the presence of unit root in the variables in levels could be rejected (reject \(\:{H}_{0}\) ) at 1 percent significance level thus demonstrating that the variables are stationary in levels exempt from variables such as the consumer price index. However, it was established to be stationary at the first difference using the LLC unit root test. Furthermore, the H-T unit root test indicated most variables to be stationary at levels on 1 percent level of significance excluding government expenditure on education which was stationary at 10 percent while the consumer price index and exchange rate were stationary at the significant level of 10 and 1 percent respectively after being subjected to the first difference. [Table III here] 4.5: Panel Cointegration Analysis The study employs cointegration tests, such as those developed by Pedron (2004), Persyn and Westerlund (2008), and Kao (1999), to ensure the accuracy of the analysis by looking for long-term correlations between macroeconomic variables. The findings provide compelling evidence against the null hypothesis, which postulated the absence of cointegration among macroeconomic variables, as the p-value for every statistic is below the conventional significance level (0.05 or 5%). According to the findings of the Kao, Pedroni, and Westerlund tests, cointegration results confirm that the variables being studied exhibit a long-term equilibrium. In this instance, the research then looks at any long-term connections between economic growth and the control variables. [Table IV here] 4.6: System GMM, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Bias-corrected Dynamic Panel Estimator Estimation Results and Discussion. The results for the second-order autocorrelation test have appeared to be statistically insignificant, demonstrating the absence of second-order autocorrelation in the disturbance component. The study tests for the legitimacy of instruments using the Sargan and Hansen test, and the statistical results have depicted the appropriate estimates, as statistically significant. The output has shown how well the instrumental variables have a good fit for the estimation. The coefficients for the lagged dependent variables were statistically significant at the 1 and 10 percent significance levels using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and the system GMM respectively. The results demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation between economic growth and budget deficits for the given dataset and chosen countries. All else being equal, a percentage change in the budget deficit is linked to an average rise in economic growth of 0.01 percent at the 1 percent level, as shown in Table 5 with their accompanying estimators. The Keynesian school of thought, which supports the idea that fiscal deficits promote domestic investment and, as a result, enhance economic growth or conditions, is supported by the results in this case. Similar results have been seen in numerous researches. For example, Mohanty (2013) and Buscemi and Yallwe ( 2012 ) found comparable outcomes for the short-run phenomenon for Asian countries, and emerging economies respectively. Also, Al-Khedair (1996) studied the influence of fiscal deficits on growth for industrial countries and concluded that deficits generally enhance growth. According to Awolaja and Esefo (2020), budget deficits seemed to have a short-run positive effect on growth and a long-run negative effect on Sub-Saharan Africa. According to Aragaw ( 2021 ), Bhari et al. ( 2020 ), and Odhiambo et al. ( 2013 ), budgetary deficits stimulated economic growth. Pieces of research have demonstrated that deficits create a destructive long-term impact on economic growth lends credence to the neoclassical school of thought. Neoclassical Keynesian economists contend that budget deficits discourage private investment by raising interest rates and lowering the output of national income. Long-term economic growth appears to be severely hampered by chronically high deficits, according to studies like Awolaja and Esefo (2020), Manamba ( 2017 ), and Dao ( 2013 ). Except for the system GMM, which is not statistically significant, it has been shown that all estimates of real interest rates possess a substantial and negative connection with growth. According to the other estimations, if all other things stay the same, a percentage increase in interest rates will, on average, result in a 0.002 percent decrease in growth. The results coincide with the conventional theoretical explanations in economics. Among other researchers, Khan and Senhadj ( 2001 ) and Buscemi and Yallwe ( 2012 ) had comparable findings. To achieve sustainable economic growth, nations must implement a monetary and fiscal mix with low and comparatively steady interest rates. Interest rates are a key factor in economic development; low interest rates are typically linked to higher investment, boosting output growth. System GMM analysis indicates a negatively statistically significant relationship between growth and the terms of trade (TOT) coefficient. A given percentage rise in terms of trade will result in a 0.01 percent decrease in economic growth, assuming all else is equal. Therefore, to increase productivity and thereby lower imports, the African government must increase both public and private sector investment and form partnerships (public-private partnerships). Unfavorable terms of trade are shown by the acquired data, which suggest that imports are greater than exports to the rest of the globe. However, Mputu ( 2016 ) found that trade terms positively affected the economies of sub-Saharan countries. A drop in TOT indicates a drop in the buying power of exports and, consequently, a drop in the size of a country's trade gains. Additionally, a drop in TOT might make it harder to fund the trade and current account deficits, leading to a large external debt load. In a system GMM, the result indicates that the estimate of the general government debt variable is statistically insignificant despite a converse relationship with economic growth. Government debt and economic growth had a statistically significant negative connection for alternative estimators. For every percentage increase in general government debt, growth is slowed by an average of 0.04 percent, assuming they remain constant. The findings confirm the debt overhang theory, which postulates a nonlinear relationship between debt and growth, by reaffirming that a large and growing public debt is detrimental to the growth process as referred by Okwoche and Makanza ( 2023 ). Government debt has been demonstrated to have a negative short- and long-term relationship with economic growth as explained by Asteriou et al. ( 2021 ) and Attard (2019). Nduricimpa's (2020) research demonstrated that high levels of governmental debt are invariably detrimental to economic growth. According to research by Okwoche and Makanza, ( 2023 ) Odhiambo (2018), Cecchetti et al. ( 2011 ), and Reinhart and Rogoff (2010), government debt is either neutral or encourages economic growth, is also detrimental above a certain GDP level. In this way, the outcomes support the conclusions of the study. For every estimator, the estimates of foreign direct investment have shown a positive correlation with growth, and they all seem to be statistically significant. A percentage rise in foreign direct investment is equivalent to an average increase of 0.02 percentage points in economic growth, assuming all other factors remain constant. Foreign direct investment stimulates growth by applying new knowledge to industry, improving both quantity and quality. Additionally, it enhances investment levels by launching new projects and renewing old ones (improvement of investment capital growth), which boosts production and creates jobs. In both rich and developing nations, it closes the gap between supply and demand for capital investment and guarantees steady economic growth in the host nation. Scholars such as Ayenew ( 2022 ), Nguyen ( 2020 ), Dinh et al. (2019), Yao (2019), and Borensztein et al. ( 1998 ) have all come to similar conclusions that foreign direct investment enhances economic growth. Borensztein et al. ( 1998 ) emphasized key elements for the absorption of foreign direct investments to create a substantial effect on economic growth, including the low cut-off for stock of human capital and adequate capacity to absorb cutting-edge technology. Alfaro et al. ( 2004 ) assert that well-developed financial markets are another crucial component in enhancing the influence of foreign direct investment. The goals of foreign direct investment to the recipient nation among others include technology transfer, competitiveness, export growth, job creation, and human capital development (Ayenew, 2022 ). Foreign direct investment (FDI) enhances a direct inducement on economic growth through capital accumulation and an indirect impact via the spill-over effect, according to Yao (2019). [Table V here] 4.7: Dynamic Panel Threshold Model Estimation The estimates of the study demonstrated that although a budget deficit encourages economic growth, it can also work against it if it exceeds the threshold of 14.3 percent of GDP. When budget deficits surpass the predetermined threshold value level, Table 7 shows the reverting behavior of the control variable coefficients. According to the study, the current threshold level for budget deficits is 14.3 percent; any amount above this barrier has a substantial detrimental impact on growth. Below given the threshold, the dynamic threshold model estimation findings showed that the coefficient's signs resembled those of the previously estimated models. The coefficient of budget deficits is determined to be statistically significant and positively correlates with economic growth. All other things being equal, a 10 percent increase in budget deficits is linked with a 0.07 percent rise in economic growth on average. The consumer price index was the control variable that was shown to be statistically significant and to be negatively correlated with growth in the regime. Economic growth will fall by 0.2 percent for every unit increase in the consumer price index, assuming all other things remain constant. Over the threshold amount, the data demonstrate a negative correlation between budget deficits and economic growth. It indicates that an average 0.13 percent decline in economic growth occurs for every 10 percent increase in budget deficits, provided all other factors remain constant. Indicators of the link between economic growth and the other control variables have also changed as budget deficits have increased beyond the threshold level. The consumer price index and real interest rate were also shown to be statistically significant in the aforementioned regime. [Table VI here] 5: Conclusion The study used a panel dataset from 1996 to 2022 to study the impact of budget deficits on the economic growth of the chosen African countries. All estimators displayed a positively statistically significant relationship between economic growth and budget deficits. Prolonged budget deficits, nevertheless, have been shown in numerous studies to eventually impede economic growth. However, after adopting the dynamic panel threshold model developed by Seo and Shin ( 2016 ) and Seo et al. ( 2019 ), which tackles the potential endogeneity of budget deficits, the results revealed a budget deficit threshold value of 14.3%. Government policymakers should consider determining the threshold of budget deficits in their nation to overcome the negative consequences of such deficits. The economy’s tax base should be widened to align with the increased government expenditure. In attaining sustainable economic growth African governments are required to direct more of their spending to capital projects or income-generating projects rather than recurrent expenditure which is made up of the wage bill and non-income-generating spending which has no substantial positive impact on sustainable economic growth. The régimes should continue making extra efforts to create a favorable atmosphere for the decline in interest rates and prices as have appeared to be negatively related to economic growth. Policymakers should set up policies for attracting more foreign direct investment also public-private partnerships as a mechanism of increasing productivity and sources of government revenue through taxation. The presence of sound macroeconomic policies guarantees the precision of sustainable economic growth in tandem with low and stable inflation rates and unemployment. However, prudent macroeconomic policies emanate from research works, thus the study enhances the role by adding knowledge to the existing literature. The study results offer valuable information to comprehend and take suitable policy measures. Declarations Conflict of interest: The author has no relevant non-financial or financial interests that should be disclosed. Ethical considerations: This article followed all ethical standards for research without direct contact with human or animal subjects. Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any affiliated agency of the author. Author’s contributions: I declare that I am the sole author of this research article. Acknowledgment: The author would like to thank Professor Lin Zhang for the extended comments which have greatly improved the quality of this paper. 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J Developing Areas 50(6):105–120. 10.1353/jda.2016.0145 Kimaro EL, Keong CC, Sea LL, Issue II (2017) Kripfganz S (2016) \:xtdpdqml : Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models in Stata. In Stata Journal (Issue forthcoming, pp.1–22) Kripfganz S (2019) Generalized method of moments estimation of linear dynamic panel- data models, 2020 Stata Conference 14, Stata Users Group Krueger A (2003) Big federal deficits, bigger risks. The New York Times. March 6:A6 Leshoro TLA (2021) Fiscal Deficit-Economic Growth Nexus in South Africa: A Threshold Analysis. Int J Econ Finance Stud 13(2):388–409. 10.34111/ijefs.20212018 Manamba E (2017) Analysis of Budget Deficits and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: A VAR- VECM Approach. J Econ Manage. 10.22367/jem.2017.30.02 Molefe K, Maredza A (2017) Budget deficits and economic growth: A Vector Error Correction modeling of South Africa. 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ISSN 0304–4076 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.03.005 Slimani S, Abbassi E, I and, Tounsi (2016) Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries. Int J Bus Social Res 04. http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/jefs.v4i3.22 Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5724961","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":395221321,"identity":"678a64c6-9d35-49b6-b6b0-ec79b1619a71","order_by":0,"name":"Samwel Mwigeka","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA20lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgYGhgMMcvzsDQzMJGkxluw5QLQWEDjAkLjhRgKRWnRnJDe/+HDGzpjh5hvDzwUVNgz87d0JeLWY3Uhss5xxI1mOcXaOsfSMM2kMEmfObsCv5XZimzHPB2ZjZukcA2netsMMBhK5RGj586E+sU3yjPFvYrU0P2a4cTixR4LHjEhb7j9sY+w5c9xYgietzJrnTBoPYb+cOf74w49j1XL2xw9vvs1TYSPH396LXwsQsElAaA4DEMlDSDkIMH+A0OwPiFE9CkbBKBgFIxAAAG6MTYMMGRW0AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2339-9869","institution":"Ruaha Catholic University from Tanzania","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Samwel","middleName":"","lastName":"Mwigeka","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-28 07:48:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5724961/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5724961/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":72677177,"identity":"6ba9c893-c511-4e65-849b-c88808f8c7c3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-31 06:30:44","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":140788,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSee image above for figure legend\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5724961/v1/8d5073c33aa021ded01f9eea.jpg"},{"id":72678169,"identity":"20a186f7-675a-4b4e-90b1-57bbb5ac9154","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-31 06:46:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":730414,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5724961/v1/d8c81909-9d45-4f87-80dc-e0c1c526037f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDo Budget Deficits Benefit or Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from African Countries Applying a Threshold Analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"1: Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn recent years countries have expanded their expenditures in various sectors to foster economic growth following the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Additionally, nations everywhere aim to preserve sustainable economic growth and macroeconomic stability. In this sense, rising government spending above and beyond government revenue is mostly responsible for growing budget deficits. The global crisis that persisted from mid-year 2007 to early 2009 and the response to COVID-19 also appeared to blow up government spending as governments attempted to comprehend the economic effects of the lockdowns, further aggravating the fiscal imbalance (Okwoche \u0026amp; Nikolaidou, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Leshoro, 2022). The two major events motivated the introduction of a stimulus package to rescue the economic crises.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn many African and developing nations, a continuous and steadily growing government deficit and debt are major issues (Leshoro, 2022). However, it is believed that budget deficits are not necessarily bad, especially when utilized according to plans. However, recently there have been controversial discussions due to their steady increase in developed and developing nations. Amid the increased pressure on government expenditure which did not correspond to the government revenue created budget deficits in developing countries including African countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAwolaja and Esefo (2020) have exposed the outcome of various means of financing government budget deficits. When the budget deficit requires borrowing from commercial banks interest rates would rise. The ultimate consequence of higher interest rates will be the flight of private investors. Inflation would most likely result if the deficit is funded by central bank borrowing or money printing. Utilizing external financing is expected to result in currency appreciation due to the foreign exchange inflow, which will worsen the current account balance and reduce exports. The building of external debt stock resulting from the poor utilization of funding from all sources may ultimately lead to a debt crisis.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDuring recessions, governments are urged to run deficits because they will help stabilize the economy, by referring to the Keynesian school of thought, which maintains that budget deficits and economic growth are positively correlated. Conversely, the liberal theory asserts the contrary. The monetarist theory has challenged the Keynesian finance and budget deficit policies because they prioritized debt and taxes. It has been shown that financing budget deficits through taxes affects investment demand and private consumption negatively while funding through debts raises interest rates thus dampening private investments.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is essential to trace the threshold value that might enable policymakers to avoid or minimize the detrimental effects of government deficits. The threshold model for dynamic panel data has been employed that was developed by Seo and Shin (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) which was later redefined by Seo et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR66\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Among the thresholds set in the national context and others in the country grouping are the following studies: Leshoro (2022) established a deficit threshold of 3% of GDP for South Africa, Iqbal et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e) found a deficit threshold value of 5.57% of GDP for Pakistan, Slimani (2016) and Adam and Bevan (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2005\u003c/span\u003e) established a budget deficit threshold level of 4.8% and 1.5% respectively for particular developing nations.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLastly, the work aims to address any endogeneity and cross-section dependence difficulties because research on Africa has not thoroughly explored the usage of system GMM, quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, and bias-corrected estimator. Determining which of the three philosophical systems is most appropriate for Africa is essential. However, the study's target is to trace out the threshold level of fiscal deficits that will have a favorable impact on economic expansion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe remainder of this document has been structured as follows: The corpus of current literature is discussed in Section \u003cspan refid=\"Sec2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e. Section \u003cspan refid=\"Sec5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e presents the model that is based on the underlying theoretical framework of the study. The regression findings are also shown and discussed in Section \u003cspan refid=\"Sec11\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e. Section \u003cspan refid=\"Sec19\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e wraps up and provides some suggestions and conclusion remarks.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2: Literature review","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1: Theoretical literature\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe effects of budget deficits on macroeconomic variables are explained by the following schools of thought: the Neo-classical School, the Ricardian Equivalence School, and the Keynesian School. According to the \"crowding-in\" effect, a budget deficit boosts the economy, conferring to the Keynesian School of thought. The theory posits the role of budget deficits to stimulate aggregate demand \u0026lsquo;\u0026lsquo;increases market size\u0026rsquo;\u0026rsquo; in the economy, especially during periods of recessions and depressions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThere are several studies whose results support the Keynesian School of thought, among others including the following: Leshoro (2022), Aragaw (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), Awolaja and Esefo (2020), Bhari et. al., (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), Slimani (2016), Mohanty (2013), Odhiambo et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e), Buscemi and Yallwe (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e), Adam and Bevan (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2005\u003c/span\u003e), and Al-Khedair (1996). As long as they stay below the threshold and are a temporary occurrence, budget deficits have shown a positive effect on economic growth, according to these literary works.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Ricardian equivalence, this perspective implies that individuals anticipate future tax liabilities and adjust their saving behavior accordingly, ultimately neutralizing the effects of fiscal policy on overall demand. Consequently, any increase in government borrowing is offset by a corresponding increase in private savings, leading to a situation where the net impact on the economy remains unchanged. According to the hypothesis, households consider it when determining how much to invest and save, and they choose to increase their savings to balance out the possible tax increase. Consumption in the economy thus falls, and the economy is unaffected by the rise in government spending financed by a deficit. The findings offering credence to the Ricardian Equivalence theory include the following: (Kelikume, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e; Darrat, 1990; Findlay, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1990\u003c/span\u003e; and Ostrosky; \u003cspan citationid=\"CR59\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1990\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe neo-classical school of thought holds that budget deficits discourage private investment and raise real interest rates, which impede economic progress. There are fewer funds available for private sector investments, and borrowing becomes more costly as a result of the selling of government bonds, which frequently boosts interest rates and incentivizes the private sector to spend more on bonds. It reduces the amount of output and resource use over time, which is harmful to economic expansion. Some studies offering evidence on the theory include Pamba (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR60\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e); Mwigeka (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e); Asogwa and Okeke (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e); Cebula and Cuellar (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e); Furceri and Sousa (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e); Krueger (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2003\u003c/span\u003e); and Cebula (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1985\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2: Empirical literature\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eLeshoro (2022) revealed a nonlinear correlation with a threshold value of -3.6 percent in South Africa's economy using the quarterly dataset (1996Q3 to 2021Q2) with the application of the threshold autoregressive (TAR) techniques and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). With a threshold value of 0.152 percent, Aragaw (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) using a dynamic panel threshold analysis found similar results for emerging countries. A threshold value of 5.57 percent of gross domestic product is harmful to Pakistan's economic growth, claim Iqbal et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSliman et al. (2016) adopted Hansen's (1999) method to determine the threshold effect of fiscal policy on economic growth for forty developing countries from 1990 to 2012. The data observed a double threshold impact, with a budgetary deficit of approximately 4.8% and a fiscal surplus level of 3.2% of GDP. Adam and Bevan (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2005\u003c/span\u003e) established evidence of a threshold value of about 1.5 percent of GDP for 45 developing countries, indicating that a fiscal deficit below that level would damage economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGyasi (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) examined the budget deficits' long-term significant effects on the Moroccan economy using the ARDL cointegration approach. The following studies give evidence on the prevalence of the positive short-run effect of budget deficits on economic growth for studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa and Malaysia such as Bhar et al. (2020) and Awolaja and Esefo (2020), respectively. These studies have appeared to be supported by the Keynesian school of thought with an assumption that budget deficits foster economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Keynesian theory was confirmed by Kanchori (2020), who exposed a high linkage between economic growth and budget deficits for Kenyan data spanning 2001 to 2019. Nayab (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e) examined Pakistan's economy and the results align with the conclusion from Kanchori (2020). The role of budget deficits in the Eurozone was also studied by Eroğlu et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e) using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2011Q4, insignificant long-term results were displayed along with a positive short-term impact.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOdhiambo et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e) investigated the impact of budget deficits on Kenyan growth and discovered that they have a positive effect. By utilizing data covering 1990 to 2009 for several BRICS member states using a general method of moments (GMM) technique for dynamic panels, Buscemi and Yallwe (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) supported the Keynesian premise. Concurrently, Kimaro et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e) using the generalized method of moments (GMM) demonstrated a positive connection between government spending and economic growth for Sub-Saharan Africa.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurthermore, Aworinde (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e) found comparable results regarding the effect of budget deficits on economic performance in twelve (12) African countries using the ARDL and VAR models. Finally, a 2007 study by Bose et al., which used panel data from 30 rising nations to assess the association between public spending and economic growth, showed that budget deficits inhibit economic advancement.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKelikume (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) found that interest rates were neutral and insensitive to budget deficits using data for sub-Saharan Africa and the impulse response function (IRF) from the panel VAR. The findings suggest evidence for the Ricardian as unchanged interest rates do not affect investment. Interest rate neutrality also indicated that economic growth was neutral. Rahman (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR62\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) suggests no evidence of a long-term relationship between budget deficits and economic growth using quarterly data from Malaysia.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe prevailing empirical research presents inconsistent results about how the budget deficit threshold affects economic growth due to variations in threshold estimate techniques and the countries included in the sample. The budget deficit threshold effects are reexamined in this paper using a novel estimate technique that permits heterogeneity and a smooth transition of regression coefficients between regimes. A country's or region's level of development dictates the direction of association between budget deficits and economic growth, and regional characteristics have altered the type of association between the variables.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3: Data and Methodology applied in the Study","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.1: Description of Data and Sources\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe analysis uses data from 30 African countries over 27 years (1996\u0026ndash;2022), resulting in 810 observations (i.e., panel data: where T\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;27, and N\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;30). The countries included have solely been determined by data availability, countries that had little data on the variables under consideration were excluded. The major sources of data include the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The application of panel data has advantages, including shields for biased sample selection, owing to omitted variables, Lucas et.al. (2017). Panel data has increased precision in estimation, controlling for individual effects, modeling heterogeneity across individuals, and modeling dynamic behaviors of individuals (Bond, 2002, and Greene, 2012).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.2: System GMM Model:\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAisen and Hauner (2008) suggest the use of system GMM given its superiority over other models as provides efficient estimation. System GMM expands Difference GMM by estimating simultaneous levels and differences, the two distinctly instrumented equations. More rigorous assessments of the instruments\u0026apos; validity significantly address the issue of weak instruments and offer the possibility of increased efficiency (Aisen and Hauner, 2008).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBased on these assumptions, the system GMM estimator proposes using differences \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\varDelta\\:{d}_{i,t-1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e as a new set of tools for the lagged dependent variable\u0026apos;s levels \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{d}_{i,t-1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e. As a result, it uses a fresh set of internal tools that were unavailable to the earlier GMM estimators (Acemoglu et al., 2008). Arellano and Bover (1995), and further modification by Blundell and Bond (1998) introduced the system GMM as an enhancement of the standard or basic difference GMM estimator. As seen below, it estimates using both levels (original) and difference equations.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLevel equation:\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{y}_{i,t}=\\delta\\:{y}_{i,t-1}+\\alpha\\:{x}_{i,t}+{\\mu\\:}_{i}+{\\epsilon\\:}_{i,t}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e (1)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDifferenced equation: \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{y}_{i,t}-{y}_{i,t-1}=\\delta\\:\\left({y}_{i,t-1}-{y}_{i,t-2}\\right)+\\alpha\\:\\left({x}_{i,t}-{x}_{i,t-1}\\right)+\\left({\\epsilon\\:}_{i,t}-{\\epsilon\\:}_{i,t-1}\\right)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equ1\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equ1\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e$$\\:{\\varDelta\\:y}_{i,t}=\\delta\\:{\\varDelta\\:y}_{i,t-1}+\\alpha\\:\\varDelta\\:{x}_{i,t}+\\varDelta\\:{\\epsilon\\:}_{i,t}\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:\\:$$\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"EquationNumber\"\u003e2\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSomewhat than subtracting the prior observation from the current or contemporaneous value, the system GMM employs orthogonal deviations. It takes the mean for all observations of a variable and gets subtracted. In contrast to difference GMM estimators, it minimizes information loss because it can be computed for all observations, except for the final one for each individual.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn estimating dynamic panel data such as the system GMM estimator, it uses all the difference moment conditions and this extra set of level moment criteria. In achieving the desired outcome, it merges the level and difference equations into a single, larger set of equations (Roodman, 2009). The following is the specification\u0026apos;s functional form:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eStarting with defining the growth rate:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equ2\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equ2\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e$$\\:{logGDP\\_capita}_{it}-{logGD{P}_{capita}}_{it-4}={\\varDelta\\:logGD{P}_{capita}}_{it}={gdpgrowth}_{it}$$\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"EquationNumber\"\u003e3\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGrowth rate = \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{gdpgrowth}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIt then follows the system GMM equations at levels Eq.\u0026nbsp;(\u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e) and at difference Eq.\u0026nbsp;(\u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e):\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equ4\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{y}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e denotes the dependent variable in the country \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:i\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003ein period \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:t\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e;\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\:{x}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is a vector of regressors; \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{v}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003eis the error term \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\delta\\:}_{i}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the country-specific effect, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\mu\\:}_{t}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the time-specific effect that captures global shocks\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe GDP per capita change in this instance has been measured for four years (all lags are four years, hence the lagged figures for 2000 are derived from 1996). By utilizing the four-year averages of the data, it assures roughly that the short-run cyclical simultaneity between fiscal performance and economic development can be removed as suggested by Adam and Bevan (2003), and Devarajan et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1996\u003c/span\u003e). Furthermore, it takes into consideration that growth effects frequently have an unknown lag before being apparent.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe system GMM can resolve the endogeneity of some explanatory variables, serial correlation, and heteroskedasticity (Leitao, 2010; Baum et al., \u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2003\u003c/span\u003e). Furthermore, using a system GMM estimator significantly lowers the finite sample bias while simultaneously increasing precision (Arellano and Honore, 2001; Blundell et al., 2000).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.3.1: Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAccording to Kripfganz (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e), if all presumptions are satisfied and the time horizon is brief, the QML estimate may be able to assist in resolving the endogeneity of a lagged explained variable in the employed linear dynamic panel data models. Including time-invariant variables and using full-information maximum likelihood to handle missing data are two benefits of the model: dynamic panel data using maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling. Because it additionally incorporates lagged endogenous regressors, it guarantees the potential to account for confounders and unobserved variables. The following function form represents the setup for the equation to be estimated:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{y}_{it}=\\lambda\\:{y}_{it-1}+{x}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\beta\\:+{w}_{i}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\delta\\:+{\\alpha\\:}_{i}+{\\xi\\:}_{t}+{v}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e (t\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1..., T) (i\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1\u0026hellip;, N)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWhereby;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{x}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e is a vector of sequentially exogenous time-varying variables (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:k\\times\\:1)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e,\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\:y}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the value of y for an individual\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:i\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e at time \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:t,\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\beta\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is a \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:k\\times\\:1\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e vector of unknown coefficients, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\:w}_{i}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003eis a vector of time-invariant, strictly exogenous variables, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\xi\\:}_{t}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e captures unobserved common factors across units in the panel, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\alpha\\:}_{i}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the unobservable time-invariant fixed effect, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{v}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the time-varying error term (assumed to be independently distributed across \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:i\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:t\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUsing Monte Carlo experiments, Phillips (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e) and Hayakawa et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e) discovered that quasi-maximum likelihood estimators have significantly fewer biases and, thus, smaller root mean squared errors than difference and system GMM. With strong standard errors and cross-sectional heterogeneity, the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator has shown promise in accounting for serial correlation (Falk et al., \u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFurthermore, it has been shown that by modeling the initial observations of the explained variable as a function of changes in the future values of the exogenous variables for which the coefficients are to be estimated, quasi-maximum likelihood estimation diminishes the issue of Nickel bias (correlation between the lagged dependent variable and the error term) as noted from scholars such as Falk et al., (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), and Oliveira et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.3.2: Bias-Corrected Method of Moments Estimator\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn addressing the weak-instrument issue with the GMM approach, the study also uses an alternative model, which is an extension of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators created by Hayakawa and Pesaran (2015) and Hsiao et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2002\u003c/span\u003e), among others. Both fixed and random impacts of dynamic panel models can be estimated using this approach. It also includes time-invariant regressors and orthogonality assumptions. Chudik and Pesaran (2017) demonstrated that, in comparison to alternative estimators, a straightforward bias-corrected technique of moments has good power performance and is free from size distortions. The approach works accordingly if the size of panel units tends to endlessness and the temporal horizon is fixed.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e3.4: Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIt is unclear how the fiscal deficit affects economic growth, as evidenced by several research that supports the Keynesian hypothesis and others that support the neoclassical theory (negative correlation) (Iqbal et al., \u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Therefore, the existence of a threshold level of budgetary deficits is proposed, which provides the amount of fiscal expansion that can stimulate economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSeo \u0026amp; Shin (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) modified Hansen\u0026apos;s 1999 model to include dynamic panels. By applying the first difference to the general form of the GMM, Seo and Shin (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) created a first difference two-stage least square (2SLS). Seo et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) have provided the utmost detailed current form of the dynamic panel threshold technique, that employs a time-efficient bootstrapping mechanism. The GMM system, which tackles endogeneity and simultaneity in the context of the link between explained and explanatory factors, is the foundation of the technique Seo et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) and (Hu and Wang, \u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAccording to Seo et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), it is the only threshold technique that permits the treatment of one threshold variable in a model and does not take into consideration multiple thresholds. The current model, created by Seo and Shin (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) and then improved by Seo et al. (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), has been used by numerous researchers, such as Alam and Anwar (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e), Gong and Seo (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), and Hu and Wang (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). This is how it appears:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e$$\\:{y}_{it}=\\left(1,{x}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}},{c}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\:\\right){\\beta\\:}_{1}I\\left({q}_{it}\\le\\:\\gamma\\:\\right)+\\left(1,{x}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}},{c}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\right){\\beta\\:}_{2}I\\left({q}_{it}\u0026gt;\\gamma\\:\\right)+{\\epsilon\\:}_{it};\\:{\\epsilon\\:}_{it}={\\alpha\\:}_{i}+{v}_{it}$$\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equb\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equb\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e$$\\:n=1,\\dots\\:,n;\\:\\:t=1,\\dots\\:,\\:T$$\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIt can also be expressed as follows;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equc\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equc\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e$$\\:{y}_{it}=\\left\\{\\begin{array}{c}{\\alpha\\:}_{i}+{\\beta\\:}_{1}^{{\\prime\\:}}{x}_{it}+{v}_{it}\\\\\\:{\\alpha\\:}_{i}+{\\beta\\:}_{2}^{{\\prime\\:}}{x}_{it}+{v}_{it}\\end{array}\\right.\\:\\begin{array}{c}{q}_{it}\\le\\:\\gamma\\:\\\\\\:{q}_{it}\u0026gt;\\gamma\\:\\end{array}$$\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe panel has to be balanced where \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\left\\{{y}_{it};\\:{q}_{it},\\:{x}_{it}:1\\le\\:i\\le\\:n,\\:1\\le\\:t\\le\\:T\\right\\}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{c}_{it}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e encompasses a vector of control variables, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{x}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003eis the \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{k}_{t}\\times\\:1\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e vector of time-varying explanatory variables of interest, which may include the lagged explained variable, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{y}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is a scalar stochastic variable of interest. \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{q}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the threshold (transition) variable, \u0026gamma; is the threshold parameter that divides the equation into two regimes with coefficients \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\beta\\:}_{1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\beta\\:}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:I\\left\\{\\bullet\\:\\right\\}\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is an indicator function that can be either equal to 1 or 0 depending on the condition term as applied by Gong and Seo (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), and Hu and Wang (\u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The error term \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\epsilon\\:}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is made up of two error components: \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{v}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is a zero mean idiosyncratic random disturbance that is assumed to be identically and independently distributed (iid) of zero mean and constant variance, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\alpha\\:}_{i}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is an unobserved individual fixed effect that accounts for time-invariant country-specific characteristics.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn fitting data of our interest to the model described above, it generates the following basic model for analysis:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv id=\"Equd\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equd\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e$$\\:{EG}_{it}=\\left(1,{BD}_{it}\\right){\\beta\\:}_{1}I\\left({q}_{it}\\le\\:\\gamma\\:\\right)+\\left(1,BD\\right){\\beta\\:}_{2}I\\left({q}_{it}\\ge\\:\\gamma\\:\\right)+\\alpha\\:{c}_{it}+{\\epsilon\\:}_{it}\\:\\:n=1,\\dots\\:n;\\:t=1,\\dots\\:,T$$\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWhere \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{c}_{it}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e represent other regressors applied in the model, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\alpha\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is the vector of parameters. Noteworthy, it has been shown that in a dynamic panel threshold, the lagged explained variable and explanatory factors are also permissible to be endogenous when endogeneity problems occur.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4: Presentation of the Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1: Descriptive analysis of the variables\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe descriptive output of the skewness statistics shows that most of the variables are favorably positively skewed when foreign direct investment, terms of trade, the consumer price index, and the real interest rate are excluded. Additionally, the distribution of GDP growth, terms of trade, budget deficits, consumer price index, general government debt, real interest rate, foreign direct investment, and government spending on education is considered leptokurtic, according to the results of the kurtosis statistic. Conversely, variables like trade openness and the real exchange rate are regarded as platykurtic since their values are less than three. [ Table I here]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2: Correlation matrix analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings in Table\u0026nbsp;2 show how the explanatory variables and economic growth (GDP growth) are related, as supported by the theories and additional research. Growth and the budget deficit have been demonstrated to be strongly positively correlated. Growth is also significantly positively correlated with trade openness and foreign direct investment. Government investment in education has been found to positively correlate with growth, however, this relationship is not statistically significant. The variables that have shown a negative relationship with growth are the real interest rate, total government debt, consumer price index, real exchange rate, and terms of trade. Additionally, the study's findings demonstrate that the variables to be used do not exhibit multicollinearity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e[Table II here]\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e4.3: Scatter plot diagram\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn supplementing the above estimation, the study applies a scatter plot for budget deficits against GDP growth our dependent variable. Since the diagrammatic association between the two variables under examination does not reflect a pattern of their direction relationship, whether positive or negative, the scatter plot (Fig.\u0026nbsp;1) suggests that there is most likely a nonlinear relationship between them. The estimation and the description appear to coincide, based on the dynamic panel threshold model. [Figure 1 here]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e4.4: Panel Unit Root Test Analysis\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe study inspects the possibility of stationarity for the data under consideration, it employs testing methods such as Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) and Harris-Tzavalis (HT) unit root test. The outputs presented in Table\u0026nbsp;3 advocate that the null hypothesis of the presence of unit root in the variables in levels could be rejected (reject \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{H}_{0}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) at 1 percent significance level thus demonstrating that the variables are stationary in levels exempt from variables such as the consumer price index. However, it was established to be stationary at the first difference using the LLC unit root test. Furthermore, the H-T unit root test indicated most variables to be stationary at levels on 1 percent level of significance excluding government expenditure on education which was stationary at 10 percent while the consumer price index and exchange rate were stationary at the significant level of 10 and 1 percent respectively after being subjected to the first difference. [Table III here]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e4.5: Panel Cointegration Analysis\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe study employs cointegration tests, such as those developed by Pedron (2004), Persyn and Westerlund (2008), and Kao (1999), to ensure the accuracy of the analysis by looking for long-term correlations between macroeconomic variables. The findings provide compelling evidence against the null hypothesis, which postulated the absence of cointegration among macroeconomic variables, as the p-value for every statistic is below the conventional significance level (0.05 or 5%).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the findings of the Kao, Pedroni, and Westerlund tests, cointegration results confirm that the variables being studied exhibit a long-term equilibrium. In this instance, the research then looks at any long-term connections between economic growth and the control variables. [Table IV here]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e4.6: System GMM, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Bias-corrected Dynamic Panel Estimator Estimation Results and Discussion.\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results for the second-order autocorrelation test have appeared to be statistically insignificant, demonstrating the absence of second-order autocorrelation in the disturbance component. The study tests for the legitimacy of instruments using the Sargan and Hansen test, and the statistical results have depicted the appropriate estimates, as statistically significant. The output has shown how well the instrumental variables have a good fit for the estimation. The coefficients for the lagged dependent variables were statistically significant at the 1 and 10 percent significance levels using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and the system GMM respectively. The results demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation between economic growth and budget deficits for the given dataset and chosen countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll else being equal, a percentage change in the budget deficit is linked to an average rise in economic growth of 0.01 percent at the 1 percent level, as shown in Table\u0026nbsp;5 with their accompanying estimators. The Keynesian school of thought, which supports the idea that fiscal deficits promote domestic investment and, as a result, enhance economic growth or conditions, is supported by the results in this case. Similar results have been seen in numerous researches. For example, Mohanty (2013) and Buscemi and Yallwe (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) found comparable outcomes for the short-run phenomenon for Asian countries, and emerging economies respectively. Also, Al-Khedair (1996) studied the influence of fiscal deficits on growth for industrial countries and concluded that deficits generally enhance growth. According to Awolaja and Esefo (2020), budget deficits seemed to have a short-run positive effect on growth and a long-run negative effect on Sub-Saharan Africa. According to Aragaw (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), Bhari et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), and Odhiambo et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e), budgetary deficits stimulated economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePieces of research have demonstrated that deficits create a destructive long-term impact on economic growth lends credence to the neoclassical school of thought. Neoclassical Keynesian economists contend that budget deficits discourage private investment by raising interest rates and lowering the output of national income. Long-term economic growth appears to be severely hampered by chronically high deficits, according to studies like Awolaja and Esefo (2020), Manamba (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e), and Dao (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcept for the system GMM, which is not statistically significant, it has been shown that all estimates of real interest rates possess a substantial and negative connection with growth. According to the other estimations, if all other things stay the same, a percentage increase in interest rates will, on average, result in a 0.002 percent decrease in growth. The results coincide with the conventional theoretical explanations in economics. Among other researchers, Khan and Senhadj (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2001\u003c/span\u003e) and Buscemi and Yallwe (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) had comparable findings. To achieve sustainable economic growth, nations must implement a monetary and fiscal mix with low and comparatively steady interest rates. Interest rates are a key factor in economic development; low interest rates are typically linked to higher investment, boosting output growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSystem GMM analysis indicates a negatively statistically significant relationship between growth and the terms of trade (TOT) coefficient. A given percentage rise in terms of trade will result in a 0.01 percent decrease in economic growth, assuming all else is equal. Therefore, to increase productivity and thereby lower imports, the African government must increase both public and private sector investment and form partnerships (public-private partnerships). Unfavorable terms of trade are shown by the acquired data, which suggest that imports are greater than exports to the rest of the globe. However, Mputu (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) found that trade terms positively affected the economies of sub-Saharan countries. A drop in TOT indicates a drop in the buying power of exports and, consequently, a drop in the size of a country's trade gains. Additionally, a drop in TOT might make it harder to fund the trade and current account deficits, leading to a large external debt load.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn a system GMM, the result indicates that the estimate of the general government debt variable is statistically insignificant despite a converse relationship with economic growth. Government debt and economic growth had a statistically significant negative connection for alternative estimators. For every percentage increase in general government debt, growth is slowed by an average of 0.04 percent, assuming they remain constant. The findings confirm the debt overhang theory, which postulates a nonlinear relationship between debt and growth, by reaffirming that a large and growing public debt is detrimental to the growth process as referred by Okwoche and Makanza (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR56\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment debt has been demonstrated to have a negative short- and long-term relationship with economic growth as explained by Asteriou et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) and Attard (2019). Nduricimpa's (2020) research demonstrated that high levels of governmental debt are invariably detrimental to economic growth. According to research by Okwoche and Makanza, (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR56\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) Odhiambo (2018), Cecchetti et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e), and Reinhart and Rogoff (2010), government debt is either neutral or encourages economic growth, is also detrimental above a certain GDP level. In this way, the outcomes support the conclusions of the study.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor every estimator, the estimates of foreign direct investment have shown a positive correlation with growth, and they all seem to be statistically significant. A percentage rise in foreign direct investment is equivalent to an average increase of 0.02 percentage points in economic growth, assuming all other factors remain constant. Foreign direct investment stimulates growth by applying new knowledge to industry, improving both quantity and quality. Additionally, it enhances investment levels by launching new projects and renewing old ones (improvement of investment capital growth), which boosts production and creates jobs. In both rich and developing nations, it closes the gap between supply and demand for capital investment and guarantees steady economic growth in the host nation. Scholars such as Ayenew (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), Nguyen (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), Dinh et al. (2019), Yao (2019), and Borensztein et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1998\u003c/span\u003e) have all come to similar conclusions that foreign direct investment enhances economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBorensztein et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1998\u003c/span\u003e) emphasized key elements for the absorption of foreign direct investments to create a substantial effect on economic growth, including the low cut-off for stock of human capital and adequate capacity to absorb cutting-edge technology. Alfaro et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2004\u003c/span\u003e) assert that well-developed financial markets are another crucial component in enhancing the influence of foreign direct investment. The goals of foreign direct investment to the recipient nation among others include technology transfer, competitiveness, export growth, job creation, and human capital development (Ayenew, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Foreign direct investment (FDI) enhances a direct inducement on economic growth through capital accumulation and an indirect impact via the spill-over effect, according to Yao (2019). [Table V here]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e4.7: Dynamic Panel Threshold Model Estimation\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe estimates of the study demonstrated that although a budget deficit encourages economic growth, it can also work against it if it exceeds the threshold of 14.3 percent of GDP. When budget deficits surpass the predetermined threshold value level, Table\u0026nbsp;7 shows the reverting behavior of the control variable coefficients. According to the study, the current threshold level for budget deficits is 14.3 percent; any amount above this barrier has a substantial detrimental impact on growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBelow given the threshold, the dynamic threshold model estimation findings showed that the coefficient's signs resembled those of the previously estimated models. The coefficient of budget deficits is determined to be statistically significant and positively correlates with economic growth. All other things being equal, a 10 percent increase in budget deficits is linked with a 0.07 percent rise in economic growth on average. The consumer price index was the control variable that was shown to be statistically significant and to be negatively correlated with growth in the regime. Economic growth will fall by 0.2 percent for every unit increase in the consumer price index, assuming all other things remain constant.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOver the threshold amount, the data demonstrate a negative correlation between budget deficits and economic growth. It indicates that an average 0.13 percent decline in economic growth occurs for every 10 percent increase in budget deficits, provided all other factors remain constant. Indicators of the link between economic growth and the other control variables have also changed as budget deficits have increased beyond the threshold level. The consumer price index and real interest rate were also shown to be statistically significant in the aforementioned regime. [Table VI here]\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"5: Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe study used a panel dataset from 1996 to 2022 to study the impact of budget deficits on the economic growth of the chosen African countries. All estimators displayed a positively statistically significant relationship between economic growth and budget deficits. Prolonged budget deficits, nevertheless, have been shown in numerous studies to eventually impede economic growth. However, after adopting the dynamic panel threshold model developed by Seo and Shin (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) and Seo et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR66\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), which tackles the potential endogeneity of budget deficits, the results revealed a budget deficit threshold value of 14.3%. Government policymakers should consider determining the threshold of budget deficits in their nation to overcome the negative consequences of such deficits.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe economy\u0026rsquo;s tax base should be widened to align with the increased government expenditure. In attaining sustainable economic growth African governments are required to direct more of their spending to capital projects or income-generating projects rather than recurrent expenditure which is made up of the wage bill and non-income-generating spending which has no substantial positive impact on sustainable economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe r\u0026eacute;gimes should continue making extra efforts to create a favorable atmosphere for the decline in interest rates and prices as have appeared to be negatively related to economic growth. Policymakers should set up policies for attracting more foreign direct investment also public-private partnerships as a mechanism of increasing productivity and sources of government revenue through taxation. The presence of sound macroeconomic policies guarantees the precision of sustainable economic growth in tandem with low and stable inflation rates and unemployment. However, prudent macroeconomic policies emanate from research works, thus the study enhances the role by adding knowledge to the existing literature. The study results offer valuable information to comprehend and take suitable policy measures.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConflict of interest:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe author has no relevant non-financial or financial interests that should be disclosed.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eEthical considerations:\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis article followed all ethical standards for research without direct contact with human or animal subjects.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eDisclaimer\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any affiliated agency of the author.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAuthor\u0026rsquo;s contributions:\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eI declare that I am the sole author of this research article.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgment:\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe author would like to thank Professor Lin Zhang for the extended comments which have greatly improved the quality of this paper.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAdam CS, Bevan DL (2005) Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries. 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Int J Bus Social Res 04. \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttp://dx.doi.org/10.18533/jefs.v4i3.22\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"10.18533/jefs.v4i3.22\" targettype=\"DOI\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Henan University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Economic growth, budget deficits, dynamic panel threshold model, system GMM","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5724961/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5724961/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEconomic expansion in recent years has been linked to a sharp increase in budget deficits. It is therefore imperative to cross-check their relationship. The study uses system GMM, quasi maximum likelihood, and bias-corrected dynamic panel estimator for estimation using panel data from 1996 to 2022. The findings show that budget deficits and economic growth have a statistically significant positive association. The study has determined a threshold value through a dynamic panel threshold model in gauging the effect of budget deficits on economic growth. The results indicate a single threshold impact that produced a threshold level of 14.3% thus confirming the prevalence of a non-linear relationship. The findings show that budget deficits significantly harm the upper regime on economic growth and show mean-reverting behavior over the threshold. The results recommend that governments expand their tax base for government revenue by prioritizing strengthening revenue authorities and reducing spending on recurrent budgets.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Do Budget Deficits Benefit or Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from African Countries Applying a Threshold Analysis","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-12-31 06:30:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5724961/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a3426789-2bfa-470f-b823-9164bf5c04bb","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 31st, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":42111748,"name":"Development Economics"},{"id":42111749,"name":"Macroeconomics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-12-31T06:30:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-12-31 06:30:39","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5724961","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5724961","identity":"rs-5724961","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}