Multiple waves of COVID-19: A pathway model approach

Multiple waves of COVID-19: A pathway model approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multiple waves of COVID-19: A pathway model approach Giovani Vasconcelos, Nathan L. Pessoa, Natan B. Silva, Antônio M. S. Macêdo, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2003313/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract A generalized pathway model, with time dependent parameters, is applied to describe the mortality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries that exhibit multiple waves of infections. The pathway approach adopted here is formulated explicitly in time, in the sense that the model’s growth rate for the number of deaths or infections is written as an explicit function of time, rather than in terms of the cumulative quantity itself. This allows for a direct fit of the model to daily data (new deaths or new cases) without the need of any integration. The model is applied to COVID-19 mortality curves for ten selected countries and found to be in very good agreement with the data for all cases considered. From the fitted theoretical curves for a given location, relevant epidemiological information can be extracted, such as the starting and peak dates for each successive wave. It is argued that obtaining reliable estimates for such characteristic points is important for studying the effectiveness of interventions and the possible negative impact of their relaxation, as it allows for a direct comparison of the time of adoption/relaxation of control measures with the peaks and troughs of the epidemic curve. COVID-19 epidemic wave growth model public health Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Minor revisions 13 Oct, 2022 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Sep, 2022 Reviewers invited by journal 11 Sep, 2022 Editor assigned by journal 02 Sep, 2022 First submitted to journal 26 Aug, 2022 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2003313","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":135820072,"identity":"c02f36df-e36c-4497-8160-20fec724280f","order_by":0,"name":"Giovani Vasconcelos","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-5960","institution":"Universidade Federal do Parana","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Giovani","middleName":"","lastName":"Vasconcelos","suffix":""},{"id":135820073,"identity":"95afac79-7070-45b8-9d67-4132847618c3","order_by":1,"name":"Nathan L. 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