Prioritizing Heat Adaptation Measures across Indian Cities: A Benefit-Cost Analysis

Prioritizing Heat Adaptation Measures across Indian Cities: A Benefit-Cost Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Prioritizing Heat Adaptation Measures across Indian Cities: A Benefit-Cost Analysis Sacha Takacs, Niels Souverijns, Nicholas Jones, Asmita Tiwari, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5618553/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in npj Urban Sustainability → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Although deaths and economic losses from extreme heat are rising globally, heat stress remains a ”hidden hazard” due to measurement and valuation challenges. In India, cities are implementing Heat Action Plans, combining cooling measures like urban greening and cool roofs with health interventions such as early warning systems and shifting work hours. However, there is limited understanding of which actions are most effective. Using high-resolution climate modeling, we developed heat risk maps for Lucknow, Chennai, and Surat. We further modeled health and economic losses under a ‘no intervention’ scenario and estimated adaptation strategies’ costs and benefits. Our results show that, by 2050, heat-related deaths could rise by one-third, and productivity losses could affect 2-4% of the economic output. Among adaptations, early warning systems show the greatest return on investment (50:1), while urban greening has a strong benefit-to-cost ratio (3:1), highlighting the need to prioritize these strategies in Indian cities and beyond. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Health sciences/Health care/Health policy Health sciences/Health care/Health services Health sciences/Health care/Public health Social science/Economics Social science/Environmental studies Benefit-cost analysis public health labor productivity climate change heat-stress Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in npj Urban Sustainability → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 10 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 10 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 06 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 06 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Dec, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Dec, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Dec, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Dec, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 20 Dec, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 17 Dec, 2024 First submitted to journal 10 Dec, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5618553","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":391410275,"identity":"ce05ee8f-6575-497f-b578-17e626bfd6dc","order_by":0,"name":"Sacha 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However, there is limited understanding of which\r\nactions are most effective. Using high-resolution climate modeling, we developed\r\nheat risk maps for Lucknow, Chennai, and Surat. We further modeled health\r\nand economic losses under a ‘no intervention’ scenario and estimated adaptation\r\nstrategies’ costs and benefits. Our results show that, by 2050, heat-related deaths\r\ncould rise by one-third, and productivity losses could affect 2-4% of the economic\r\noutput. 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