Assessing future climate change impacts on habitat distribution of threatened plant species in the Lower Ouémé Valley Biosphere Reserve (RB-BVO) in Benin

Assessing future climate change impacts on habitat distribution of threatened plant species in the Lower Ouémé Valley Biosphere Reserve (RB-BVO) in Benin | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing future climate change impacts on habitat distribution of threatened plant species in the Lower Ouémé Valley Biosphere Reserve (RB-BVO) in Benin Gildas Bignihin Noudéhouénou Ekpangbo, Innocent Nofodo Gbaï, Etienne Dossou, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7318348/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate variability and change are currently among the greatest development challenges facing our planet. These climatic phenomena have significant impacts on plant resources, with noticeable effects such as shifts in the phenological stages of plant species and reductions in the range of their habitats. This study examines the impact of future climate variability on the distribution of suitable habitats for threatened plant species listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List within the RB-BVO. The methodological approach involved collecting climate data and species occurrence records. Future climate trends were analyzed using Khronostat 1.01 software and Excel spreadsheets. Additionally, simulations of the potential effects of future climate variability on suitable habitats for plant species by 2055 and 2099 under the RCP4.5 scenario were conducted using the Maxent model. The results indicate rainfall instability and significant monthly increases in temperature (a difference of 2°C between 2020 and the projected peak). These changes will likely extend heat periods within the RB-BVO region, affecting the distribution of habitats for the 16 identified threatened species. These include two endangered species ( Aphania senegalensis and Pterocarpus erinaceus ), nine vulnerable species ( Afzelia africana, Albizia ferruginea, Khaya senegalensis, Millettia warneckei, Nesogordonia papaverifera, Pierreodendron kerstingii, Pseudospondias microcarpa, Pterygota macrocarpa, and Ricinodendron heudelotii ), and four near-threatened species ( Chrysophyllum albidum, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Irvingia gabonensis , and Milicia excelsa ). Projections for 2055 and 2099 under the RCP4.5 scenario show a reduction in suitable habitats for the conservation of these threatened species within the RB-BVO, with habitat losses estimated at 32.55% by 2055 and 44.47% by 2099. The implementation of a management and conservation plan for these threatened species in response to climate variability is therefore essential for the reserve. Climate variability climate scenario threatened species Mono Biosphere Reserve Benin Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7318348","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":542164974,"identity":"ce4df974-7c13-4d72-a450-5474cbd4b97b","order_by":0,"name":"Gildas Bignihin Noudéhouénou Ekpangbo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Laboratoire de Biogéographie et Expertise Environnementale, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, République du Bénin","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gildas","middleName":"Bignihin 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Benin","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate variability, climate scenario, threatened species, Mono Biosphere Reserve, Benin","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7318348/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7318348/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate variability and change are currently among the greatest development challenges facing our planet. These climatic phenomena have significant impacts on plant resources, with noticeable effects such as shifts in the phenological stages of plant species and reductions in the range of their habitats. This study examines the impact of future climate variability on the distribution of suitable habitats for threatened plant species listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List within the RB-BVO. The methodological approach involved collecting climate data and species occurrence records. Future climate trends were analyzed using Khronostat 1.01 software and Excel spreadsheets. Additionally, simulations of the potential effects of future climate variability on suitable habitats for plant species by 2055 and 2099 under the RCP4.5 scenario were conducted using the Maxent model. The results indicate rainfall instability and significant monthly increases in temperature (a difference of 2\u0026deg;C between 2020 and the projected peak). These changes will likely extend heat periods within the RB-BVO region, affecting the distribution of habitats for the 16 identified threatened species. These include two endangered species (\u003cem\u003eAphania senegalensis\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003ePterocarpus erinaceus\u003c/em\u003e), nine vulnerable species (\u003cem\u003eAfzelia africana, Albizia ferruginea, Khaya senegalensis, Millettia warneckei, Nesogordonia papaverifera, Pierreodendron kerstingii, Pseudospondias microcarpa, Pterygota macrocarpa, and Ricinodendron heudelotii\u003c/em\u003e), and four near-threatened species (\u003cem\u003eChrysophyllum albidum, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Irvingia gabonensis\u003c/em\u003e, and \u003cem\u003eMilicia excelsa\u003c/em\u003e). Projections for 2055 and 2099 under the RCP4.5 scenario show a reduction in suitable habitats for the conservation of these threatened species within the RB-BVO, with habitat losses estimated at 32.55% by 2055 and 44.47% by 2099. The implementation of a management and conservation plan for these threatened species in response to climate variability is therefore essential for the reserve.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Assessing future climate change impacts on habitat distribution of threatened plant species in the Lower Ouémé Valley Biosphere Reserve (RB-BVO) in Benin","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-11 16:14:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7318348/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0c19144f-ed03-4310-b2cb-d0517f700d30","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-01T10:17:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-11 16:14:02","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7318348","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7318348","identity":"rs-7318348","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}