Building integrated risk matrices from species distribution models: The risk of hemlock woolly adelgid to Ontario, Canada.

Building integrated risk matrices from species distribution models: The risk of hemlock woolly adelgid to Ontario, Canada. | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 7 April 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Building integrated risk matrices from species distribution models: The risk of hemlock woolly adelgid to Ontario, Canada. Authors : Cameron Cornelsen 0009-0003-2975-9838 [email protected] , Chris MacQuarrie , and Sandy Smith Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177558334.41221349/v1 140 views 61 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract The invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) was recently detected in Ontario and threatens the province’s eastern hemlock forests. A novel risk matrix was created from species distribution model-based predictions of climatic suitability and host abundance data to predict future HWA establishment and impact in Ontario. We found that HWA can infest townships across southwestern Ontario, but the low proportion of eastern hemlock will limit its impact. Under a low emissions climate change scenario, most eastern hemlock in the province will be threatened by mid-century. The combination of host abundance and climatic suitability values from species distribution models was an effective method to model cumulative risk posed by invasive species using readily available datasets. The preparation of such models allowed the presentation of data in a manner interpretable and applicable to forest managers and invasive pest management practitioners. Supplementary Material File (manuscript.docx) Download 1.22 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 07 April 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords hemlock woolly adelgid integrated pest management invasion ecology maxent risk modeling species distribution modeling Authors Affiliations Cameron Cornelsen 0009-0003-2975-9838 [email protected] University of Toronto View all articles by this author Chris MacQuarrie Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre View all articles by this author Sandy Smith University of Toronto View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 140 views 61 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Cameron Cornelsen, Chris MacQuarrie, Sandy Smith. Building integrated risk matrices from species distribution models: The risk of hemlock woolly adelgid to Ontario, Canada.. Authorea . 07 April 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177558334.41221349/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. 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