Too Hot to Give Birth? Temperature Shocks and BirthRates

Too Hot to Give Birth? 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Temperature Shocks and BirthRates Qifan Fu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6834960/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper investigates the demographic consequences of extreme heat by leveragingexogenous variation in temperature across Japanese prefectures. I find that exposureto extreme temperatures during early pregnancy leads to a 0.3 percent decrease in thelogarithmic birth rate. In contrast, there is no detectable effect on labor obstructedrates, indicating that individuals partially adapt by adjusting the timing of conceptionand that early gestational disruptions constitute the primary channel. Heterogeneityanalysis reveals that the fertility losses are disproportionately larger in less developedregions, highlighting how limited adaptive capacity exacerbates climate-induced demographicinequality. JEL Codes: Q54, J13 Extreme temperatures Birth rate Climate Shocks Regional Inequality Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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