Networks and Epidemics: Designing network-based intervention strategies from edge-based infection probability

Networks and Epidemics: Designing network-based intervention strategies from edge-based infection probability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Networks and Epidemics: Designing network-based intervention strategies from edge-based infection probability Veronika Halász, Joacim Rocklöv This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5895590/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Epidemics underscore the critical role of human contact networks in shaping the spread of infectious diseases. The transmission varies depending on a range of factors, including the virus characteristics, the type and duration of contact, and whether it occurs indoor or outdoor. However, not only does the probability of transmission differ, but the impact of each transmission event depends on the ability of a single transmission event to transmit the virus to new, previously unaffected, socially segmented groups in society. Effective policy-making should be guided by a nuanced understanding of how infections spread , ensuring that interventions are proportional to the risk they aim to address. In this study, we performed a number of theoretical experiments on generated networks that are structurally similar to real social contact networks. We simulated a fictitious epidemic on different sample graphs and with different contact restrictions, and then compared the trajectories. Based on the observed differences, we identified the contact types whose restriction can have effect in curbing the epidemic. We find that it is particularly worth focusing on the relationships that form a bridge between clusters or communities. By doing so, public health efforts can more successfully balance the dual goals of minimizing transmission and maintaining social and economic stability. Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics/Network topology Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics/Probabilistic data networks Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementary.pdf Spreadingsimulation.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 20 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 21 Feb, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Feb, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Feb, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Feb, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Feb, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Feb, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 11 Feb, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 11 Feb, 2025 Editor invited by journal 05 Feb, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Feb, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Jan, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5895590","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":410529869,"identity":"80b928f8-0e60-4f90-8016-f96fa8a1e022","order_by":0,"name":"Veronika Halász","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Heidelberg University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Veronika","middleName":"","lastName":"Halász","suffix":""},{"id":410529870,"identity":"9e9af400-aa64-4715-91b7-2c38e6ff423e","order_by":1,"name":"Joacim Rocklöv","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Heidelberg University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joacim","middleName":"","lastName":"Rocklöv","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-24 12:23:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5895590/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5895590/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33300-3","type":"published","date":"2026-01-06T15:58:47+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100069983,"identity":"12565ef1-2fa2-45c0-ad21-f3d5b5ae431c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-12 16:15:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":916111,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"11zonzip.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5895590/v1_covered_49cde71c-b796-4020-aaf9-16f7e84a88a9.pdf"},{"id":75465391,"identity":"97ed3b66-ce42-4cec-a515-38081f6eab6d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-05 01:33:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":165698,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementary.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5895590/v1/830a7417275efa747905753e.pdf"},{"id":75465390,"identity":"20dd53b7-e4ce-4e09-9bab-7c65d326fb5c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-05 01:33:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":65424,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Spreadingsimulation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5895590/v1/4ee416af30226d0ce9420a7b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Networks and Epidemics: Designing network-based intervention strategies from edge-based infection probability","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5895590/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5895590/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Epidemics underscore the critical role of human contact networks in shaping the spread of infectious diseases. 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