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by claude@2026-06, 2026-06-24
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This paper develops a climate- and niche-aware spatial conservation planning framework using reinforcement learning routines implemented in the software CAPTAIN, aimed at improving protected-area allocation under limited resources. Applied to European crop wild relatives (186 taxa across five focal crops, and then 1,140 taxa in a broader checklist), the framework prioritizes regions by accounting for climate-driven range shifts and representation of environmentally distinct populations (niche coverage) rather than relying on current distributions alone. Compared with a baseline model, it changed priority areas substantially and, among other metrics, reduced the number of non-protected species by 64%, increased average protected distribution range by 43%, and raised mean niche coverage from 75.8% to 84.5%; a stated caveat is that results depend on the chosen modeling approach and data for niches and range shifts. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.
Abstract
Despite substantial global commitments to expand protected-area networks, the strategic allocation of limited resources remains challenging. Spatial conservation planning helps identify priority regions that maximise conservation benefits per unit area. Yet, they also tend to neglect two fundamental aspects of conservation: climate-driven range shifts and the representation of environmentally distinct populations within species. Here, we propose a continental-scale conservation planning framework that explicitly accounts for both processes through novel routines implemented in the conservation planning software CAPTAIN. We apply this framework to European crop wild relatives (CWR), for which niche coverage is a focal priority, as it underpins their potential to support agricultural adaptation to future environmental stressors through breeding programs. Comparative analyses on a subset of 186 CWR associated with five focal crops show that accounting for range shifts and niche coverage leads to substantially different conservation priorities from those obtained with a baseline model based on current distributions only. These additions reduced the number of non-protected species by 64%, increased the average protected distribution range by 43%, increased mean niche coverage from 75.8% to 84.5% and reduced the number of species with less than half of their niche protected from 35 to 10. Applied to a more comprehensive checklist of 1,140 European CWRs, the final framework identifies continental-scale priority areas representing 93.5% of these taxa and includes 94.4% of its critically endangered species. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating both temporal dynamics and within-species environmental representation when designing conservation strategies under climate change. Repository The repository will be made publicly accessible after publication at doi: https://10.5281/zenodo.19855597
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Abstract
Despite substantial global commitments to expand protected-area networks, the strategic allocation of limited resources remains challenging. Spatial conservation planning helps identify priority regions that maximise conservation benefits per unit area. Yet, they also tend to neglect two fundamental aspects of conservation: climate-driven range shifts and the representation of environmentally distinct populations within species. Here, we propose a continental-scale conservation planning framework that explicitly accounts for both processes through novel routines implemented in the conservation planning software CAPTAIN. We apply this framework to European crop wild relatives (CWR), for which niche coverage is a focal priority, as it underpins their potential to support agricultural adaptation to future environmental stressors through breeding programs. Comparative analyses on a subset of 186 CWR associated with five focal crops show that accounting for range shifts and niche coverage leads to substantially different conservation priorities from those obtained with a baseline model based on current distributions only. These additions reduced the number of non-protected species by 64%, increased the average protected distribution range by 43%, increased mean niche coverage from 75.8% to 84.5% and reduced the number of species with less than half of their niche protected from 35 to 10. Applied to a more comprehensive checklist of 1,140 European CWRs, the final framework identifies continental-scale priority areas representing 93.5% of these taxa and includes 94.4% of its critically endangered species. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating both temporal dynamics and within-species environmental representation when designing conservation strategies under climate change.
Repository The repository will be made publicly accessible after publication at doi: https://10.5281/zenodo.19855597
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
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