An Aging Giant At The Center of Global Warming: Population Dynamics and Its Effect on CO2 Emissions in China

Managing the aging crisis and mitigating CO 2 emissions are currently two great challenges faced by China. Revealing the complex correlation between aging and CO 2 , and projecting their future dynamics are fundamentally necessary to inform effective strategies and policies toward a low-carbon and sustainable development in China. In this paper, we quantitatively investigated the impacts of population aging, economy, and energy intensity on CO 2 emissions through a STIRPAT model based on balanced provincial panel data from 1995-2019, and employed a cohort model and scenario analysis to project the demographic change and CO 2 emissions till 2050. It is found that CO 2 emissions in China has witnessed a significant growth during 1995-2019, and will exhibit an inverted U-shaped growth till 2050 with its peak appears between 2030-2040. Every 1% increase of aging will exert a 0.69% emission of CO 2 in China. However, a big regional difference was also detected as aging contributed to CO 2 reduction in the eastern region, but stimulated CO 2 emissions in the central and western regions. Policy implications for achieving a low-carbon and aging-oriented sustainable development include the integration of aging into the decision-making of industrial structure upgrading and CO 2 emission reduction in both national and region levels, the promotion of the further transition to low-carbon consumption and green products in the eastern region, and strengthening the deep fusion of aging-oriented industries with local resource and environmental endowment in the central and western regions such as the development of eco-agriculture and green pension industries.