Projected Range Shift and Genetic  Diversity Loss of Cold-temperate Kelps in the Northeast vs. the  Northwest Atlantic Under Climate Change        

Projected Range Shift and Genetic Diversity Loss of Cold-temperate Kelps in the Northeast vs. the Northwest Atlantic Under Climate Change | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 4 March 2026 V2 Latest version Share on Projected Range Shift and Genetic Diversity Loss of Cold-temperate Kelps in the Northeast vs. the Northwest Atlantic Under Climate Change Authors : Zi-Min Hu 0000-0002-1313-1785 [email protected] , Xiao-Meng Sun , Jorge Assis , Juan Diego Gaitán-Espitia 0000-0001-8781-5736 , Jaruwan Mayakun , Qiang Lin , and Zhixin Zhang 0009-0004-7031-7916 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176857219.92400686/v2 191 views 116 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Intraspecific genetic variability plays a crucial role in species’ capacity to adapt to climate change but it is often overlooked in biodiversity impact projections, particularly for cold-water benthic environments. Here, we used molecular datasets to delimit two genetically divergent lineages within the cold-temperate kelps Saccharina latissima, Laminaria digitata and Alaria esculenta spanning the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic. Building on such genetic insights, we employed ecological niche modelling to generate distribution projections, revealing that lineage-level models provided more realistic projections than species-level approaches. Our results identified sea-surface temperature as the dominant factor shaping kelp distribution ranges. Lineage-level projections revealed contrasting responses with a northward expansion and southern-edge contraction of habitat ranges in kelp species, leading to a net increase in the Northwest and decrease in the Northeast Atlantic. Populations of S. latissima and L. digitata on the south of c. 48°N in the Northwest (e.g. the Canadian Maritimes and Maine) and south of c. 67°N in the Northeast (e.g. France, the UK, and Germany), are projected to lose unique and endemic genetic variation. Unexpectedly, A. esculenta is predicted to lose unique genetic diversity across both Atlantic regions by the 2050s. These striking changes in distribution range and genetic characteristics highlight the necessity to conserving and managing distinct gene pools to avoid regional extinction of cold-temperate kelp forest ecosystems under ongoing climate change. Supplementary Material File (ms-26.1.15.docx) Download 114.81 KB File (table_1.docx) Download 16.01 KB File (table_2.docx) Download 15.45 KB File (table_3.docx) Download 15.27 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 16 January 2026 V2 Version 2 04 March 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords biodiversity conservation decreasing habitat suitability ecological niche differentiation intraspecific lineages kelp forest ecosystem sea-surface temperature Authors Affiliations Zi-Min Hu 0000-0002-1313-1785 [email protected] Yantai University View all articles by this author Xiao-Meng Sun Yantai University View all articles by this author Jorge Assis University of Algarve View all articles by this author Juan Diego Gaitán-Espitia 0000-0001-8781-5736 University of Hong Kong School of Biological Sciences View all articles by this author Jaruwan Mayakun Prince of Songkla University View all articles by this author Qiang Lin South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Zhixin Zhang 0009-0004-7031-7916 South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Funding Information National Natural Science Foundation of China 32371697 Zi-Min Hu Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 191 views 116 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Zi-Min Hu, Xiao-Meng Sun, Jorge Assis, et al. Projected Range Shift and Genetic Diversity Loss of Cold-temperate Kelps in the Northeast vs. the Northwest Atlantic Under Climate Change . Authorea . 04 March 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176857219.92400686/v2 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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