Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) Versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) Levels: Modelling and Therapeutic Strategies

Abstract Current new COVID-19 viruses have already spread in multiple countries and have resulted in over one hundred thousand human infections and over three thousand human deaths worldwide. The possibility of a global pandemic is growing. It appears most of the infection resulted deaths are mainly due to dysfunctions or failures of the lung or multiple organs that could be attributed to host immune system’s hyperinflammatory disorders. In this work, a model is proposed to correlate the Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) levels within a host unit, where a maximum PIRP is exhibited when the PIAPS levels are equal to or around PIAPS equilibrium levels at the pathogen elimination or clearance onset. Based on this model, rational or effective therapeutic strategies at right stages or timing, with right type of agents and right dosages, can be designed and implemented that are expected to effectively achieve maximum PIRP or reduce the mortality.