Trends and forecasts of extreme rainfall in small, medium and large towns in Burkina Faso: a non-parametric statistical analysis and Holt-Winters Smoothing Method (West Africa)

Trends and forecasts of extreme rainfall in small, medium and large towns in Burkina Faso: a non-parametric statistical analysis and Holt-Winters Smoothing Method (West Africa) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Trends and forecasts of extreme rainfall in small, medium and large towns in Burkina Faso: a non-parametric statistical analysis and Holt-Winters Smoothing Method (West Africa) YAMEOGO Joseph This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4514962/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate extremes have become an important issue in recent years, leading to renewed scientific interest in the topic. However, few studies have focused on the analysis of precipitation extremes in large, medium, and small towns in Burkina Faso, a Sahelian country in West Africa. This study aims to analyse trends and future projections of rainfall extremes in small, medium, and large cities in Burkina Faso. To this end, rainfall data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency of Burkina Faso (NMABF) over the period 1991-2020 at monthly time steps. The stations selected were Boromo for the small town of Boromo, Saria for the medium-sized town of Koudougou, and Bobo-Dioulasso for the city of Bobo-Dioulasso. The precipitation data were then entered into the Rclimdex software to produce precipitation indices. The extreme rainfall indices were analysed using descriptive statistics, linear regression, innovative graphical trends, and futures projections. The study shows that there is strong variability and an increasing monotonic trend in the extreme precipitation indices over the period 1990-2020. However, in the city of Koudougou, the trends are nonmonotonically increasing. The study also shows that the forecast based on the Holt-Winter additive model shows that extreme precipitation indices will increase in the study cities. However, the duration indices will decrease more in the city of Koudougou. innovative graphical trend additive Holt-Winter model extreme rainfall indices Burkina Faso Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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