A framework for determining precipitation deficit thresholds for triggering hydrological droughts

A framework for determining precipitation deficit thresholds for triggering hydrological droughts | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A framework for determining precipitation deficit thresholds for triggering hydrological droughts Huiming Han, Chun Fu, Siyang Yao, Yezhong Liu, Gang Li, Chaochao Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5228520/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Hydrological droughts (HDs) often follow meteorological droughts (MDs), meaning that MDs can be a precursor to HDs. This relationship suggests that monitoring meteorological conditions can be an effective way to predict and issue early warnings for potential HDs. However, the development of effective early warning models has been constrained by a limited understanding of the complex dynamics of drought propagation and the absence of reliable indicators. To address this gap, We present a framework that identifies key meteorological conditions leading to HDs by improving event matching and warning indicators. This approach, which is evaluated through an analysis of HD thresholds in the upper basin of Poyang Lake, China. First, drought events are matched using propagation rules to filter out HDs not caused by precipitation deficits. Next, we identify the meteorological conditions that trigger HDs and calculate the relevant precipitation deficit indicators. Finally, we construct a precipitation deficit threshold model for HDs using a copula function to determine the thresholds that trigger various levels of HD. The results reveal several types of propagation from MDs to HDs, with one-to-one propagation being the most common. Probabilistic models effectively capture the relationship between precipitation deficit conditions and HD characteristics. Precipitation deficit thresholds rise with increasing HD levels. This framework enables managers to reduce potential HD damage by monitoring precipitation conditions and taking proactive measures. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate change adaptation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Drought propagation Precipitation deficit threshold Meteorological drought Hydrological drought Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5228520","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":369391429,"identity":"258234b0-05e9-4950-918f-d93fa9801b65","order_by":0,"name":"Huiming Han","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanchang university","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Huiming","middleName":"","lastName":"Han","suffix":""},{"id":369391430,"identity":"a40c643b-49af-4fa5-911e-8d956a5ce04d","order_by":1,"name":"Chun Fu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYg8cHARo6fvfnAgQ8/iNTCOKMizViy51jiwZk9RNrEzHPmcOKGGznGhznYiFE+I/fgB942ZsaGAzkfDjPwMMjzix0g4LCec8kSkm1sQD1nNxwusGAwnDk7gYCW9h4zBsM2HqCe3g2HZ/AwJBjcJqSlmceMIbFNAqiH58FhHjZitIBsOXDGAKiHh4FILT1njCUbKhJAegyAgSxB2C+GM3IMP/8x+F+///7jxx8+/LCR55cmpKUBlS+BXzkIyBNWMgpGwSgYBSMeAAAnLEZafTbTVgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Nanchang university","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chun","middleName":"","lastName":"Fu","suffix":""},{"id":369391431,"identity":"0f383653-dfb7-44b9-a4c5-85131bc6e6f3","order_by":2,"name":"Siyang Yao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Siyang","middleName":"","lastName":"Yao","suffix":""},{"id":369391432,"identity":"9666d4f7-e7c5-45d6-a58b-0ab135f6a609","order_by":3,"name":"Yezhong Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanchang university","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yezhong","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":369391433,"identity":"49e54e95-b1ce-46a5-a0a5-96db8dcde147","order_by":4,"name":"Gang Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanchang university","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gang","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":369391434,"identity":"78b8e502-9642-4744-a58a-584395de78ed","order_by":5,"name":"Chaochao Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chaochao","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-09 02:08:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5228520/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5228520/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87501847,"identity":"a12f447a-0041-4a8b-a8a6-585b5124780a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-24 14:02:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":989411,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"revisedmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5228520/v1_covered_0708ddf5-30a2-48a1-88a6-a1723918620b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A framework for determining precipitation deficit thresholds for triggering hydrological droughts","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Drought propagation, Precipitation deficit threshold, Meteorological drought, Hydrological drought","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5228520/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5228520/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eHydrological droughts (HDs) often follow meteorological droughts (MDs), meaning that MDs can be a precursor to HDs. This relationship suggests that monitoring meteorological conditions can be an effective way to predict and issue early warnings for potential HDs. However, the development of effective early warning models has been constrained by a limited understanding of the complex dynamics of drought propagation and the absence of reliable indicators. To address this gap, We present a framework that identifies key meteorological conditions leading to HDs by improving event matching and warning indicators. This approach, which is evaluated through an analysis of HD thresholds in the upper basin of Poyang Lake, China. First, drought events are matched using propagation rules to filter out HDs not caused by precipitation deficits. Next, we identify the meteorological conditions that trigger HDs and calculate the relevant precipitation deficit indicators. 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