Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone of Oromia Region

Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone of Oromia Region | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone of Oromia Region Tolesa Futasa Begna This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6317779/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract ARIMA models were applied in the modeling and forecasting of the monthly rainfall distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone, Ethiopia. This study, therefore, dwells on developing an appropriate model that can be used for forecasting to inform water resource management and agricultural planning. Monthly rainfall data for a period of 120 months from the Oromia Region metrology station were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including trend analysis and stationarity testing. ADF and Phillips-Perron unit root tests supported the stationarity of the rainfall series. The AIC has identified the best fit for the dataset as an ARMA model of order (0,1). ARMA forecasting at order (0,1) showed a relative decrease in rainfall for the forecasted months that could affect agricultural productivity. These findings show that supplemental irrigation is essential for sustainable development in Kelem Woleja Zone. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Rainfall Time series autocorrelation Stationary Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6317779","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":442291698,"identity":"cd859945-4095-459e-952c-975172c4da90","order_by":0,"name":"Tolesa Futasa Begna","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gaGBAYGfn4QO6GACA08DIxgLZIzG0BaDIjVAgSSGw6AKGK02LM3Nn548MdOwvj86sQPDwwY5PnFDhCwhedgs0RiW7KE2Y23myWADjOcOTuBgBaJxAYgYq4zu3F2A0hLgsFtwlqafyT8qZcwnnF28w9itbRJJLAdljDg791GpC1nDrZZJLYdl5C4wbvNIsFAgrBf2NubD9/88adagr//7OabPyps5PmlCWhBAAmwSglilYMA/wFSVI+CUTAKRsFIAgBV8UPv4L9hCwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Dambi Dollo University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tolesa","middleName":"Futasa","lastName":"Begna","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-27 07:08:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6317779/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6317779/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":81713562,"identity":"5a7de4cb-1345-44c6-99e8-75d932a3c3a3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 14:53:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":261660,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ModelingRainfall.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6317779/v1_covered_7bb550ab-ab1f-439d-8168-427178631fd5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone of Oromia Region","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Rainfall, Time series, autocorrelation, Stationary","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6317779/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6317779/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"ARIMA models were applied in the modeling and forecasting of the monthly rainfall distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone, Ethiopia. This study, therefore, dwells on developing an appropriate model that can be used for forecasting to inform water resource management and agricultural planning. Monthly rainfall data for a period of 120 months from the Oromia Region metrology station were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including trend analysis and stationarity testing. ADF and Phillips-Perron unit root tests supported the stationarity of the rainfall series. The AIC has identified the best fit for the dataset as an ARMA model of order (0,1). ARMA forecasting at order (0,1) showed a relative decrease in rainfall for the forecasted months that could affect agricultural productivity. These findings show that supplemental irrigation is essential for sustainable development in Kelem Woleja Zone.","manuscriptTitle":"Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Distribution in Kelem Wolega Zone of Oromia Region","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-22 04:09:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6317779/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d65afb3e-649b-4763-9580-9256629856b0","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":47088231,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science"},{"id":47088232,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-04-30T14:53:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-22 04:09:43","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6317779","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6317779","identity":"rs-6317779","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}