Study on Multidimensional Shrinkage Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Cities in the Yellow River Basin

Study on Multidimensional Shrinkage Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Cities in the Yellow River Basin | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Study on Multidimensional Shrinkage Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Cities in the Yellow River Basin Guangrui Xing, Dongfeng Wang, Wanxin Cai This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5210093/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract With economic globalization and the deepening process of industrialization and urbanization, China's urban development has entered a vital transition stage. As one of the most influential rivers in China, the Yellow River Basin (YRB), with ecological protection and high-quality development as China's national strategy, has not yet received sufficient attention for its urban shrinkage. Accordingly, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the shrinkage of cities in the YRB from four dimensions: population, economy, society and space. The entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are to determine the weights, the shrinkage model, the transfer matrix method and the exploratory spatial data analysis method are used to study the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of 62 cities with data in the YRB. The multivariate linear (ML) regression method and the random forest (RF) regression method are used comparatively to explore the influences that affect the formation of the cities in the YRB in terms of growth and shrinkage, as well as their influencing roles. The research results show that: (1) urban shrinkage in the YRB is characterized by spatial differentiation and shows a trend of drastic and concentrated development, with the shrinkage phenomenon becoming more and more significant; the degree of population shrinkage, economic shrinkage and social shrinkage is dominated by slight or moderate; the degree of space shrinkage and comprehensive shrinkage is dominated by high and heavy. (2) The reduction in the number of shrinking cities indicates a diminishing urban shrinkage across all dimensions, with a progressively increasing impact.(3) RF regression is more accurate than ML regression. An in-depth exploration of the characteristics of urban shrinkage and its development dynamics in the YRB from a multidimensional perspective will help to narrow the imbalance of urban development, promote high-quality development, and provide an essential reference to promote the progress of urban shrinkage research on a regional scale. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability urban shrinkage multidimensional spatial-temporal evolution randomized forest regression YRB Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Tables 1 to 3 are available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Tables.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 07 Nov, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 07 Nov, 2024 Editor invited by journal 07 Nov, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Nov, 2024 First submitted to journal 05 Oct, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5210093","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":375713631,"identity":"59dec315-58b2-43bc-976b-880cce753d29","order_by":0,"name":"Guangrui Xing","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Henan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guangrui","middleName":"","lastName":"Xing","suffix":""},{"id":375713632,"identity":"8c8ef352-7953-4c71-91f5-77a550923f09","order_by":1,"name":"Dongfeng Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAqElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCxIePoSwDYrUkGxuTrMVMmjQtBseT2aoLKu4kNrA3b5NgqLlDhJYzj9luzzjzLLGB51iZBMOxZ4S1mN3IP3abt+1wYoNEjpkEY8NhYrQksxXz/gNqkX9DghZm3gaQLTxEarE/85hZmufYYeM2nrRii4RjRGiRbE9m/MxTc1i2n/3wxhsfaojQAgdsICKBBA2jYBSMglEwCvAAALfuOJLNXWvTAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Henan University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dongfeng","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":375713633,"identity":"cacce1c7-1499-4407-addd-cbaed6650d21","order_by":2,"name":"Wanxin Cai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wanxin","middleName":"","lastName":"Cai","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-05 17:53:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5210093/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5210093/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06292-3","type":"published","date":"2025-07-02T15:57:11+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86178919,"identity":"d7c8f865-6452-4179-a11d-b7c9bc183add","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-07 16:11:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2033145,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5210093/v1_covered_099c3115-ac31-4baf-bad3-39f1b4f7e6f9.pdf"},{"id":69220031,"identity":"582a5718-0a6b-4139-b3df-0e04358a3127","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-18 06:59:42","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":24040,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Tables.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5210093/v1/89cc2f64954e7463d24430c7.docx"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eNo competing interests reported.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTables 1 to 3 are available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"Study on Multidimensional Shrinkage Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Cities in the Yellow River Basin","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"urban shrinkage, multidimensional, spatial-temporal evolution, randomized forest regression, YRB","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5210093/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5210093/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWith economic globalization and the deepening process of industrialization and urbanization, China's urban development has entered a vital transition stage. As one of the most influential rivers in China, the Yellow River Basin (YRB), with ecological protection and high-quality development as China's national strategy, has not yet received sufficient attention for its urban shrinkage. Accordingly, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the shrinkage of cities in the YRB from four dimensions: population, economy, society and space. The entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are to determine the weights, the shrinkage model, the transfer matrix method and the exploratory spatial data analysis method are used to study the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of 62 cities with data in the YRB. The multivariate linear (ML) regression method and the random forest (RF) regression method are used comparatively to explore the influences that affect the formation of the cities in the YRB in terms of growth and shrinkage, as well as their influencing roles. 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