Growth projections of hydrogen electrolysis worldwide with evidence from historical analogs and hindcasting

Growth projections of hydrogen electrolysis worldwide with evidence from historical analogs and hindcasting | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Growth projections of hydrogen electrolysis worldwide with evidence from historical analogs and hindcasting Nik Zielonka, Jenna Greene, Gregory Nemet, Evelina Trutnevyte This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9181103/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Reliably projecting growth of emerging technologies entering the market remains a key challenge for informing policy making on energy and climate change. We demonstrate and validate a new approach to probabilistically project growth of emerging technologies and we apply it to analyze how much hydrogen electrolysis could be installed worldwide until 2100. The new approach combines hindcasting-based evidence that we obtain from testing multiple historical analogs, growth models, and diffusion attributes, like technology capacities at take-off and saturation. For electrolysis, we find that European countries would contribute most to global growth by showing fastest growth rates in the next years. However, as projected growth depends highly on currently planned projects, selected historical analogs, and settings of diffusion attributes, confidence levels vary notably. A few other countries worldwide, specifically Australia, Canada, and Chile, could also contribute strongly to the global growth with large capacities in later years and become hydrogen exporters. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIEmergingTechProjNZJGGNET.pdf Supplementary Information: Growth projections of hydrogen electrolysis worldwide with evidence from historical analogs and hindcasting Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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