Spatiotemporal Trends of Land Surface Temperature and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensification Across India

Spatiotemporal Trends of Land Surface Temperature and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensification Across India | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatiotemporal Trends of Land Surface Temperature and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensification Across India Shahid Mirza, Rohini Lakshman Bhawar, Sunil R Patil This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7551275/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment → Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Dense population, rapid urbanization, and industrialization make India a highly vulnerable country to the consequences of global warming. This study examines past 25 years (2000–2024) spatiotemporal trends of diurnal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and analyses the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensities across the country, and for 50 major cities, respectively, including the influence of zonal biogeography. The significance of the LST trends is statistically confirmed by using the Mann–Kendall test and zonal heterogeneity is analysed by using ANOVA. The study covers total span of 25 years (2000–2024) which is classified in two periods, pre-COVID-19 years (2000–2019) and including the post-COVID-19 years (2000–2024). In the period, 2000–2019, the mean LST variability range of (minimum to maximum) has substantially widened by 7.8°C (2.3°C) for day-time (night-time). The LST change during the COVID-19 period has significantly hindered, change in day-time and night-time LST for May month is 0.18°C and 0.04°C, respectively, whereas, during 2020–2024 it has become − 1.24°C and − 0.2°C, respectively. In general, the zones follow the country-level LST trends for 2000–2019 as well as for 2020–2024 periods, with variable LST change rates. The highest annual day-time LST growth (+ 0.15 year − 1 ) is observed for the Desert (DES) zone, whereas the highest night-time LST rise (+ 0.07 year − 1 ) is observed for the Western Ghats (WG). Notably, the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya (HTH) zones exhibit negative LST growth rate (-0.08 and − 0.09 for day- and night-time, respectively). Further, SUHI analysis indicates that the cities within the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Semi-Arid Region (SAR), Deccan Plateau (DP), and Western Coastal Region (WCR) zones are found to be largely impacted by SUHI intensification, ranging between 2–5°C (4–7°C) for day-time (night-time). Cities in the rest of the zones experience SUHI values in the range of 1–3°C (4–5°C) for the day-time (night-time). Interestingly, even trivial SUHI values of DES cities (1–3°C for day-time) could be consequential, as the zonal LST are extremely high. The SUHI analysis also indicates that the night-time SUHI values are consistently higher and more relevant than the day-time. The study points out the requirement of urgent policy intervention and mitigation measures. Land Surface Temperature Urban Heat Island India Biogeographic zones Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupportingInformation.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Accepted 04 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 18 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 18 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 16 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 15 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 01 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7551275","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":553426775,"identity":"44328dfe-cae1-41a0-a7b8-3e915fc3c7ba","order_by":0,"name":"Shahid Mirza","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shahid","middleName":"","lastName":"Mirza","suffix":""},{"id":553426776,"identity":"9a504a94-0937-4e8d-af17-3cfabc70e46a","order_by":1,"name":"Rohini Lakshman Bhawar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Savitribai Phule Pune 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India","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emas","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Monitoring and Assessment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10661)","snPcode":"10661","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10661/3","title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Land Surface Temperature, Urban Heat Island, India, Biogeographic zones","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7551275/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7551275/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDense population, rapid urbanization, and industrialization make India a highly vulnerable country to the consequences of global warming. This study examines past 25 years (2000\u0026ndash;2024) spatiotemporal trends of diurnal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and analyses the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensities across the country, and for 50 major cities, respectively, including the influence of zonal biogeography. The significance of the LST trends is statistically confirmed by using the Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall test and zonal heterogeneity is analysed by using ANOVA. The study covers total span of 25 years (2000\u0026ndash;2024) which is classified in two periods, pre-COVID-19 years (2000\u0026ndash;2019) and including the post-COVID-19 years (2000\u0026ndash;2024). In the period, 2000\u0026ndash;2019, the mean LST variability range of (minimum to maximum) has substantially widened by 7.8\u0026deg;C (2.3\u0026deg;C) for day-time (night-time). The LST change during the COVID-19 period has significantly hindered, change in day-time and night-time LST for May month is 0.18\u0026deg;C and 0.04\u0026deg;C, respectively, whereas, during 2020\u0026ndash;2024 it has become \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1.24\u0026deg;C and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.2\u0026deg;C, respectively. In general, the zones follow the country-level LST trends for 2000\u0026ndash;2019 as well as for 2020\u0026ndash;2024 periods, with variable LST change rates. The highest annual day-time LST growth (+\u0026thinsp;0.15 year\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e) is observed for the Desert (DES) zone, whereas the highest night-time LST rise (+\u0026thinsp;0.07 year\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e) is observed for the Western Ghats (WG). Notably, the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya (HTH) zones exhibit negative LST growth rate (-0.08 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.09 for day- and night-time, respectively). Further, SUHI analysis indicates that the cities within the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Semi-Arid Region (SAR), Deccan Plateau (DP), and Western Coastal Region (WCR) zones are found to be largely impacted by SUHI intensification, ranging between 2\u0026ndash;5\u0026deg;C (4\u0026ndash;7\u0026deg;C) for day-time (night-time). Cities in the rest of the zones experience SUHI values in the range of 1\u0026ndash;3\u0026deg;C (4\u0026ndash;5\u0026deg;C) for the day-time (night-time). Interestingly, even trivial SUHI values of DES cities (1\u0026ndash;3\u0026deg;C for day-time) could be consequential, as the zonal LST are extremely high. The SUHI analysis also indicates that the night-time SUHI values are consistently higher and more relevant than the day-time. The study points out the requirement of urgent policy intervention and mitigation measures.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spatiotemporal Trends of Land Surface Temperature and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensification Across India","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-05 06:51:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7551275/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Accepted","date":"2026-03-04T15:32:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-18T08:56:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-18T05:18:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-16T17:30:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-21T07:51:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"18062703440039058115793338050568163064","date":"2026-01-21T07:46:00+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"125227541653080609610908114118910923845","date":"2026-01-20T03:44:10+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"302869396576193243315456061090816630603","date":"2026-01-19T07:17:17+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"330831423430756160154682130483446119733","date":"2026-01-19T05:05:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"328294509851802566403585618231442033954","date":"2026-01-19T03:33:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-19T03:23:07+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-01-15T08:57:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","date":"2025-12-01T12:49:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emas","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Monitoring and Assessment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10661)","snPcode":"10661","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10661/3","title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f128bc62-9138-4c84-a96d-9cea731cd0d6","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 5th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-23T16:06:51+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7551275","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-026-15153-z","journal":{"identity":"environmental-monitoring-and-assessment","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment"},"publishedOn":"2026-03-16 15:59:31","publishedOnDateReadable":"March 16th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-05 06:51:02","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s10661-026-15153-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-026-15153-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7551275","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7551275","identity":"rs-7551275","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}