Using Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning to Analyze the Impact of Moroccan Investments in Africa on Trade Flows(2007– 2023)

Using Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning to Analyze the Impact of Moroccan Investments in Africa on Trade Flows(2007– 2023) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Using Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning to Analyze the Impact of Moroccan Investments in Africa on Trade Flows(2007– 2023) Mohamed Bouyarden, Asmaa Faris, Halima Bakala, Mostafa Elhachloufi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8264596/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the impact of Moroccan investments on trade flows with 27 African countries from 2007 to 2023. After data cleaning, 295 observations were analyzed. Weak linear correlations were observed between trade flows and explanatory variables, except for Morocco’s GDP over time and African partner GDP with imports. Four Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architectures were applied to predict exports and imports, evaluated using MSE, MAE, and R 2 . The Deeper MLP achieved the best performance, with African partner GDP (PIBA) identified as the most influential predictor. Exports additionally depended on investment and political factors such as BITs and OFDI. Residual analysis revealed heteroscedas- ticity for exports and bias for imports. Overall, domestic investment drives trade flows, deeper neural networks improve predictions for complex targets, and simpler models provide better generalization, offering practical insights for policymakers and investors. Foreign Direct Investment Morocco Africa Deep Learning Economic Mod- eling Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 02 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 30 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 29 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 17 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 07 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 07 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 02 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8264596","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":561725398,"identity":"6f8080d6-7b7f-41b8-a831-c443d5e6b88b","order_by":0,"name":"Mohamed 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2023)","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-artificial-intelligence","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"diai","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Artificial Intelligence](https://www.springer.com/44163)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Artificial Intelligence","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover 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After data cleaning, 295 observations were analyzed. Weak linear correlations were observed between trade flows and explanatory variables, except for Morocco\u0026rsquo;s GDP over time and African partner GDP with imports. Four Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architectures were applied to predict exports and imports, evaluated using MSE, MAE, and \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e. The Deeper MLP achieved the best performance, with African partner GDP (PIBA) identified as the most influential predictor. Exports additionally depended on investment and political factors such as BITs and OFDI. Residual analysis revealed heteroscedas- ticity for exports and bias for imports. Overall, domestic investment drives trade flows, deeper neural networks improve predictions for complex targets, and simpler models provide better generalization, offering practical insights for policymakers and investors.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Using Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning to Analyze the Impact of Moroccan Investments in Africa on Trade Flows(2007– 2023)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-19 05:36:05","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8264596/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-01-02T09:16:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-30T06:32:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-29T05:54:04+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-24T20:46:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"272245908189111465789043869115035172276","date":"2025-12-20T05:16:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"9895960246609506976075307481649855558","date":"2025-12-19T12:09:00+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"28682402414165600452684770601472903544","date":"2025-12-19T11:35:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"339233375199557822301794836620976187927","date":"2025-12-17T10:53:10+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-17T10:20:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-12-08T04:33:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-08T04:32:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Artificial Intelligence","date":"2025-12-03T00:14:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-artificial-intelligence","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"diai","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Artificial Intelligence](https://www.springer.com/44163)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Artificial Intelligence","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5e3a1ae4-41e8-4191-b00d-b60e268d9e65","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 19th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-13T09:25:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-19 05:36:05","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8264596","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8264596","identity":"rs-8264596","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}