Quantifying national responsibilities for climate change impacts

Quantifying national responsibilities for climate change impacts | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Quantifying national responsibilities for climate change impacts Fei Teng, Tianpeng Wang, Xunzhang Pan, Yann Robiou du Pont, Xiliang Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3945496/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The extent to which damage caused by climate change can be attributed to a particular country or group of countries has become a central debate in climate justice. Thus far, historical emission levels have been used to discern responsibilities for climate change. However, this metric fails to attribute specific climate change damages to the responsible countries, and does not establish a causal link to the scale and distribution of impacts in space and time. To overcome this shortcoming, we quantify the marginal costs each country bears due to the emissions from all other countries. We do so through a country-to-country mapping transparently linking historical emission levels to estimates of costs incurred from climate change impacts, thereby establishing a quantitative basis of direct political relevance. For each country, we derive the net costs as the difference between costs incurred to other countries through its emissions, and those endured as a result of other countries’ emissions. We find that a group of high emitting countries incur net costs to other countries of US$43.7 trillion, increasing by roughly US$500 billion annually. The full implementation of current mitigation pledges would do little to reverse this trend, as costs accumulate over time, long after greenhouse gases are emitted. These findings highlight that the premise behind the current international climate finance framework—which is based on voluntary contributions—is profoundly unjust. We provide quantitative estimates that help underpin a more just framework. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementalMaterials.docx Supplementary Materials Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3945496","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":557324274,"identity":"e79aac31-a21f-49fb-a160-546e5f6d52cb","order_by":0,"name":"Fei 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