Assessing the Effects of Population Ageing and the Digital Economy on Consumption in Henan, China: An ARDL Approach

Assessing the Effects of Population Ageing and the Digital Economy on Consumption in Henan, China: An ARDL Approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing the Effects of Population Ageing and the Digital Economy on Consumption in Henan, China: An ARDL Approach Yantong Guo, Hayyan Nassar Waked This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876214/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Introduction: The interaction of the Digital Economy (DE), Consumption (CO), and Population Ageing (PA) is of great significance in addressing economic development, enhancing people's livelihoods, and promoting social harmony in Henan, China. Aim: This paper aims to analyze thecausal relationship of PA and DE toward CO, to identify strategies to leverage the digital economy to address the economic challenges posed by ageing and to enhance consumption. Method: The study transforms annual data using Eviews for quarterly time series data from 2006 to 2023, constructs a digital economy index through the entropy method. It applies the ARDL model to explore both short-and long-run dynamics among the variables. Findings: This study reveals that population ageing consistently reduces consumption both immediately and over time,while the digital economy initially suppresses consumption but its negative effect gradually weakens. The findings highlight the need for proactive ageing policies and accelerated digital adoption to sustain consumption growth amid demographic and technological changes. Conclusion: Enhancing digital literacy and infrastructure for the elderly enhances their participation in the digital economy and stimulates Consumption. It recommends focusing on sectors where elderly Consumption is expected to grow and promoting tailored financial products for the Aging population to encourage spending in alignment with the Development Plan for the Elderly in Henan Province under the 14th Five-Year Plan. Originality and Value: The study provides insights into regional strategies for adapting to demographic shifts.It supports policy formulation aimed at promoting inclusive digital development and boosting consumption among the ageing population in Henan. Digital Economy Consumption Population Ageing ARDL Model Henan Province Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 20 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 12 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6876214","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":473534693,"identity":"e9370d10-8e75-4eb2-9bb7-8e2238e3ac68","order_by":0,"name":"Yantong Guo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCcYGhgSGf3L87I2NDz+QoOWAsWTP4WZjCeK0gMkDiQY30tsEeIjRIT+7uU3i4Y47CZIzH7YB9dvJ6TYQ0MI452CzQeKZZ3n80oltDwoYko3NDhDQwiyR2PggsY25WHJ2YruBBNCF2whpYZNIbDgA1JK44ebBNgkeYrTwQGw5nLjhBiORWiQkEoF+aUsDBnIiMJANiPCL/Iz0Z5I/22yAUXn84cMPFXZyBLWgAQPSlI+CUTAKRsEowAEAm3hFrLhTZ8gAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Huanghe jiaotong university","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yantong","middleName":"","lastName":"Guo","suffix":""},{"id":473534696,"identity":"a52fab47-51db-4a18-9236-5c0b84fec83a","order_by":1,"name":"Hayyan Nassar Waked","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"City University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hayyan","middleName":"Nassar","lastName":"Waked","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-12 03:53:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876214/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876214/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85083653,"identity":"6fd30b02-62dc-4b0d-be09-5048b1c28fca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-20 18:27:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":535102,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AssessingtheEffectsofPopulationAgeingandtheDigitalEconomyonConsumptioninHenanChinaAnARDLApproach.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6876214/v1_covered_d08e65cc-062f-4067-a833-42a31a02dbdb.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Assessing the Effects of Population Ageing and the Digital Economy on Consumption in Henan, China: An ARDL Approach","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"review-of-economics-of-the-household","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"reho","sideBox":"Learn more about [Review of Economics of the Household](http://link.springer.com/journal/11150)","snPcode":"11150","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11150/3","title":"Review of Economics of the Household","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Digital Economy, Consumption, Population Ageing, ARDL Model, Henan Province","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876214/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876214/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIntroduction: \u003c/strong\u003eThe interaction of the Digital Economy (DE), Consumption (CO), and Population Ageing (PA) is of great significance in addressing economic development, enhancing people's livelihoods, and promoting social harmony in Henan, China.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAim:\u003c/strong\u003e This paper aims to analyze thecausal relationship of PA and DE toward CO, to identify strategies to leverage the digital economy to address the economic challenges posed by ageing and to enhance consumption.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethod: \u003c/strong\u003eThe study transforms annual data using Eviews for quarterly time series data from 2006 to 2023, constructs a digital economy index through the entropy method. It applies the ARDL model to explore both short-and long-run dynamics among the variables.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFindings:\u003c/strong\u003e This study reveals that population ageing consistently reduces consumption both immediately and over time,while the digital economy initially suppresses consumption but its negative effect gradually weakens. The findings highlight the need for proactive ageing policies and accelerated digital adoption to sustain consumption growth amid demographic and technological changes.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion:\u003c/strong\u003e Enhancing digital literacy and infrastructure for the elderly enhances their participation in the digital economy and stimulates Consumption. 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