The determinants of forest area in Brazil: Ethanol production, exports of crops and livestock, and asymmetric impact of temperature change

The determinants of forest area in Brazil: Ethanol production, exports of crops and livestock, and asymmetric impact of temperature change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The determinants of forest area in Brazil: Ethanol production, exports of crops and livestock, and asymmetric impact of temperature change Slim Ben Youssef This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8304199/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper evaluates the long-run impact of fuel ethanol production, exports of crops and livestock, and the asymmetric impact of temperature change on the forest area in Brazil. We use the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model and annual data between 1990 and 2022. An increase in ethanol production or in exports of crops and livestock importantly reduces the forest area in Brazil, in the long-run. We demonstrate that while positive temperature change does reduce forest area in the long-run, falling temperatures do not guarantee the regeneration of lost forests. A temperature change increase of 1°C leads in the long term to a significant and very worrying reduction in the forest area of Brazil, of almost 9.8%. Some policy recommendations are drawn: i) To reduce GHG emissions, Brazil should encourage R&D and innovation in energy efficiency and renewable energy (e.g., solar, wave), especially in second-generation or third-generation biofuels production, through appropriate competitive credits and subsidies; ii) Brazil should encourage agricultural research to increase agricultural yields and the use of aeroponics for vegetable culture or smart agriculture, because this will lead to less pressure on agricultural lands and therefore on deforestation; iii) A strategy to preserve or even to recover the Brazilian Amazon forest should be established combined with a strategy for developing green tourism. Jel classifications: C22; F18; O13 ; O54 ; Q15 ; Q23 ; Q54. Forestry Agricultural Economics & Policy Renewable Resources Environmental Policy Econometrics Forest area Temperature change Ethanol production Exports of crops and livestock Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag Brazil Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8304199","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":556745905,"identity":"c84d88a7-7e37-47d4-af6c-b09892eba3b0","order_by":0,"name":"Slim Ben Youssef","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdsYGBiCCATk5wlqYUbUYGwMJKJ8NlxaEErCWxAZCWuSbmVs3MO6wyTM43mP88UeFQXo//+HnDxjbtskzyPcewKbF4DBj2w3GM2nFBmfOmEnznDHInTkjzbCBse22YQMbXwJWLcwgLW2HEzfcyDEDsv/kbrjBwwjSwtjAxmOA3WFgLf9BWow//vxnkG5//gxYiz0uLQxgh7UdAGkxkOBtMEgwYMgBa0nEpQXsl8QzyYkzzxwrk+Y5ZmA440aa4YyEc7eT29hysDusvf3ZjY877BL7jjdv/vijxkCev//wgw8fym7b9jOfwe4wEAAFjMIBdBFcMYmwroGQilEwCkbBKBixAAAUsmaF83MU2AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4297-3367","institution":"University of Manouba","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Slim","middleName":"Ben","lastName":"Youssef","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-08 06:24:46","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8304199/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8304199/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97895929,"identity":"add77c7f-101e-4246-8811-9b01b1bbae8a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-10 15:35:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":484123,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"BrazilTCEPECLfinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8304199/v1_covered_1e572f58-f1e2-471b-a1ec-180a53533099.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe determinants of forest area in Brazil: Ethanol production, exports of crops and livestock, and asymmetric impact of temperature change\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Forest area, Temperature change, Ethanol production, Exports of crops and livestock, Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag, Brazil","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8304199/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8304199/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper evaluates the long-run impact of fuel ethanol production, exports of crops and livestock, and the asymmetric impact of temperature change on the forest area in Brazil. 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