Kelvin Waves Influence on Seasonal and Extreme Rainfall in Northern South America

Kelvin Waves Influence on Seasonal and Extreme Rainfall in Northern South America | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Kelvin Waves Influence on Seasonal and Extreme Rainfall in Northern South America Johanna Yepes, Juliana Valencia, Alejandro Builes-Jaramillo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466179/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Kelvin waves (KWs) play a key role in the synoptic variability of the tropics, accounting for up to 37% of the total variance in intraseasonal variability. Previous studies have shown KWs as precursors of extreme hydrometeorological events in the maritime continent. This study characterizes the seasonality of the waves, analyzes the influence of KWs over mean seasonal precipitation and extreme precipitation events over northern South America. Results show that MAM is the season with the highest cumulative events of KWs during the period 1981-2022 with more than 120 events. During MAM, positive (negative) precipitation anomalies predominate over northern South America (Amazon) coinciding with the Wet (dry) phase of the KW. The influence of KWs over Extreme precipitation Events (EPEs) show similar spatial patterns in the different seasons but one remarkable feature show that during Wet KWs: EPEs tend to enhance inland while decreasing offshore. Finally, we selected a flood event in Turbo, Colombia reported on May 9 2007 that was influenced by the passage of a convectively active KW that contribute with enhance low-level westerly flow convergence the previous days of the event. Knowing the influence of these intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation and extreme precipitation events is key for aiding the development of early warining systems and the improvement of weather forecast in the region. Kelvin Waves Extreme Precipitation Intraseasonal Variability Northern South America Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7466179","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":516113100,"identity":"7c65f113-5598-411d-9977-1a0a79f76d55","order_by":0,"name":"Johanna 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Previous studies have shown KWs as precursors of extreme hydrometeorological events in the maritime continent. This study characterizes the seasonality of the waves, analyzes the influence of KWs over mean seasonal precipitation and extreme precipitation events over northern South America. Results show that MAM is the season with the highest cumulative events of KWs during the period 1981-2022 with more than 120 events. During MAM, positive (negative) precipitation anomalies predominate over northern South America (Amazon) coinciding with the Wet (dry) phase of the KW. The influence of KWs over Extreme precipitation Events (EPEs) show similar spatial patterns in the different seasons but one remarkable feature show that during Wet KWs: EPEs tend to enhance inland while decreasing offshore. Finally, we selected a flood event in Turbo, Colombia reported on May 9 2007 that\nwas influenced by the passage of a convectively active KW that contribute with enhance low-level westerly flow convergence the previous days of the event. Knowing the influence of these intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation and extreme precipitation events is key for aiding the development of early warining systems and the improvement of weather forecast in the region.","manuscriptTitle":"Kelvin Waves Influence on Seasonal and Extreme Rainfall in Northern South America","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-25 04:44:36","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466179/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f21d7727-3a19-4c1d-8f08-1224590d8b7e","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 25th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-12T10:50:50+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-25 04:44:36","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7466179","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7466179","identity":"rs-7466179","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}