Urban sustainable mobility challenge and governance amid depopulation in China

Urban sustainable mobility challenge and governance amid depopulation in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Urban sustainable mobility challenge and governance amid depopulation in China Shiguang Wang, Jinyu He, Rui Ma, Zeyang Cheng, Lili Zheng, Haijian Bai, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7412873/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban shrinkage confronts policymakers with a sustainability dilemma directly at odds with SDG 11: persistent congestion coexists with surplus bus capacity as populations fall. Arbitrary service reductions entrench a car-dependency trap, fuelling a self-reinforcing “shrinkage-congestion” spiral. Using 1 km2 cell data for 298 Chinese cities, we show that nearly half of traffic congestion (55.22% moderate to severe) and 150,921 bus stops are anchored in depopulating tracts. Passive mitigation is strikingly inefficient: each 1000-person/km2 decline yields a mere 1.5 % lagged reduction in congestion probability, underscoring the urgency of proactive, green-bus-oriented governance. Spatial-econometric models reveal non-linear interactions between population density, congestion probability, and bus supply. Maintaining 10-15 bus stops or 15-20 bus routes per km2 ensures low congestion under most population densities. However, beyond 10,000 people/km2 in high-congestion areas, the marginal benefit of adding buses diminishes sharply, making integrated mobility solutions essential. These findings provide a transferable, evidence-based paradigm for sustainable mobility in shrinking cities and a replicable SDG 11.2 implementation framework under depopulation. Scientific community and society/Geography Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Interdisciplinary studies Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7412873","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":502847252,"identity":"21150e9b-6594-4432-939c-c12c644da2c9","order_by":0,"name":"Shiguang 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