Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ and Experts’ R&D Spending Priorities

Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ and Experts’ R&D Spending Priorities | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ and Experts’ R&D Spending Priorities Mattie Toma, Francesco Capozza, Krishna Srinivasan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236718/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Research and development (R&D) is widely regarded as a crucial factor in driving improvements in living standards, health, and life expectancy. Quantifying the social returns to government R&D spending and assessing whether citizens value such spending — two inputs that directly shape R&D budget decisions — are central concerns for researchers and policymakers. In light of recent and substantial reductions in U.S. federal R&D spending, evidence on these inputs is more important than ever. Using surveys of experts (N approx 115) and nationally representative U.S. samples (N = 2,008), our paper provides new evidence on these inputs. We find that 87% of experts judge that the social benefits from increasing U.S. government R&D spending at the margin exceed the costs, with the median expert expecting benefits between $2 - $2.4 per dollar invested. Furthermore, approximately 83% of experts and 81% of citizens support increasing R&D spending. These results imply that increases in U.S. federal government R&D spending are both valuable and politically feasible. Experts systematically underestimate citizens' support for R&D spending, highlighting scope for correcting such misperceptions to improve the alignment between citizens' views and policies. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics Scientific community and society/Scientific community/Funding Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Government Scientific community and society/Scientific community/Policy R&D Government Spending Priorities Government Budget Experts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7236718","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":496773040,"identity":"33035694-0fe7-4e92-98e9-264edb7e0d0b","order_by":0,"name":"Mattie Toma","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCBAjF+ABEsgEhGEjgVM/M2JAAkWc2IF4LVJ4NqoiAFt3288cfPKhgqOMXO/ysmqfmXmIf+7EEhh81DIkzG7BrMTuTDHTYGQYJydlpZrd5jhUntvGkHWDsOcaQOBuHLWYHgFoS2xgkDG4nmN3OYUvIbZNgb2DgbWBInIdLy/nHQC3/QFrSvxXn/INoYfyLT8sNkC0NIC05Zsy5bSAtbAeYQbbgdNiNx4YzEo5JSM6cnVMs/bcvoR7ol4TDMsckjHF6/3zig48/amz4+aXTN36c8S3BWL79mOHDNzU2sjMO4LAGAtDi4AC+iBwFo2AUjIJRQBgAAI1vWEtAgS0YAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"WBS","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mattie","middleName":"","lastName":"Toma","suffix":""},{"id":496773041,"identity":"ff8b9aee-4c30-427b-a7db-f79b6d5fa600","order_by":1,"name":"Francesco Capozza","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Barcelona","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francesco","middleName":"","lastName":"Capozza","suffix":""},{"id":496773042,"identity":"3e4fd8d0-3f19-4605-a4fb-900a34a43594","order_by":2,"name":"Krishna Srinivasan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"UniDistance Suisse","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Krishna","middleName":"","lastName":"Srinivasan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-28 18:55:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236718/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236718/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91818568,"identity":"32176921-a11a-4ec4-bbd4-2510e3b0922d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-22 07:04:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1309890,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"sciencepriorities.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7236718/v1_covered_586520d8-4d91-4e16-9ce8-a04eeeac8385.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ and Experts’ R\u0026amp;D Spending Priorities","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"R\u0026D, Government Spending Priorities, Government Budget, Experts","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236718/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236718/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Research and development (R\u0026D) is widely regarded as a crucial factor in driving improvements in living standards, health, and life expectancy. Quantifying the social returns to government R\u0026D spending and assessing whether citizens value such spending — two inputs that directly shape R\u0026D budget decisions — are central concerns for researchers and policymakers. In light of recent and substantial reductions in U.S. federal R\u0026D spending, evidence on these inputs is more important than ever. Using surveys of experts (N approx 115) and nationally representative U.S. samples (N = 2,008), our paper provides new evidence on these inputs. We find that 87% of experts judge that the social benefits from increasing U.S. government R\u0026D spending at the margin exceed the costs, with the median expert expecting benefits between $2 - $2.4 per dollar invested. Furthermore, approximately 83% of experts and 81% of citizens support increasing R\u0026D spending. These results imply that increases in U.S. federal government R\u0026D spending are both valuable and politically feasible. Experts systematically underestimate citizens' support for R\u0026D spending, highlighting scope for correcting such misperceptions to improve the alignment between citizens' views and policies.","manuscriptTitle":"Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ and Experts’ R\u0026amp;D Spending Priorities","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-22 06:52:32","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236718/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5054fb0f-e191-41b5-b257-d00f71a7415e","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":52770047,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics"},{"id":52770048,"name":"Scientific community and society/Scientific community/Funding"},{"id":52770049,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Government"},{"id":52770050,"name":"Scientific community and society/Scientific community/Policy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-22T06:52:32+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-22 06:52:32","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7236718","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7236718","identity":"rs-7236718","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}