Evolution Analysis of Global Polysilicon Trade Patterns and Node Resilience Considering Comprehensive Trade Distance

Evolution Analysis of Global Polysilicon Trade Patterns and Node Resilience Considering Comprehensive Trade Distance | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Evolution Analysis of Global Polysilicon Trade Patterns and Node Resilience Considering Comprehensive Trade Distance Jiayan Zeng, Xiangyu Huang, Liuguo Shao, Zhongwei Wang, Yihua Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9632573/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Against the backdrop of the global clean energy transition, polysilicon—as the core feedstock for photovoltaics—occupies a critical nexus in energy security and technological sovereignty. To overcome limitations of unidimensional edge weight specifications in extant network models, this study integrates trade data and GDELT geopolitical event data from 2004–2023, constructing a "comprehensive trade distance" weighted network model fusing trade intensity, export competition strength, and geopolitical relationships. This framework systematically quantifies multidimensional impedance to trade pathways and simulates node resilience evolution under alternative disruption scenarios. The findings indicate that global polysilicon trade exhibits three-phase characteristics—steady growth, rapid expansion, and oscillatory decline—while the network structure demonstrates "breadth extension, depth concentration" evolution. Crucially, node resilience is fundamentally determined by the "evolutionary corridor" formed by the network topology, while geopolitical linkages act as differential modulators. Geopolitical risk does not function as a uniform external pressure but as a node-specific filter that exerts asymmetric correction and perturbation on individual resilience trajectories through bilateral linkages. Supply concentration and geopolitical risk jointly shape the vulnerability distributions among core importers. This study furnishes scientific foundations for supply chain risk quantification and resilience governance in strategic raw material supply chains. Energy Engineering Polysilicon Trade Weighted Directed Complex Network Geopolitical Relationship Index Comprehensive Trade Distance Node Resilience Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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To overcome limitations of unidimensional edge weight specifications in extant network models, this study integrates trade data and GDELT geopolitical event data from 2004\u0026ndash;2023, constructing a \"comprehensive trade distance\" weighted network model fusing trade intensity, export competition strength, and geopolitical relationships. This framework systematically quantifies multidimensional impedance to trade pathways and simulates node resilience evolution under alternative disruption scenarios. The findings indicate that global polysilicon trade exhibits three-phase characteristics\u0026mdash;steady growth, rapid expansion, and oscillatory decline\u0026mdash;while the network structure demonstrates \"breadth extension, depth concentration\" evolution. Crucially, node resilience is fundamentally determined by the \"evolutionary corridor\" formed by the network topology, while geopolitical linkages act as differential modulators. Geopolitical risk does not function as a uniform external pressure but as a node-specific filter that exerts asymmetric correction and perturbation on individual resilience trajectories through bilateral linkages. Supply concentration and geopolitical risk jointly shape the vulnerability distributions among core importers. 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