Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm moderate climate sensitivity

Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm moderate climate sensitivity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm moderate climate sensitivity Mark Zelinka, Timothy Myers, Yi Qin, Li-Wei Chao, Stephen Klein, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7862068/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Earth's energy imbalance exhibits a robust positive trend over the past two decades, reaching a record value in 2023. Both the trend and year-to-year anomalies are primarily attributable to decreased reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of these low-cloud anomalies and their implications for future Earth system evolution are unknown, leading to speculation that the cloud feedback may be larger than expected. Here we quantify the meteorological factors that have driven interannual cloud-radiative anomalies, several of which aligned to cause the extreme global value observed in 2023. These meteorological variations are superposed on a background of decreasing sulfate aerosol concentrations, leading to a robust trend of reduced cloud reflection over the past 22 years. Constraints on cloud feedback and aerosol forcing implied by these observations support previous analyses and reaffirm an equilibrium climate sensitivity near 3°C with a likely (66% confidence) range of 2.7 to 4.1°C. Hence recent observations do not imply that a stronger-than-expected cloud feedback is emerging in nature or that future warming has been underestimated. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7862068","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":535829838,"identity":"0d36cea2-5fbc-4037-9536-f4d12cdbff4e","order_by":0,"name":"Mark 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