Retrospective mortality analysis of hereditary ataxia in the United States (2000–2020) and forecast to 2050 using ARIMA

Retrospective mortality analysis of hereditary ataxia in the United States (2000–2020) and forecast to 2050 using ARIMA | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Retrospective mortality analysis of hereditary ataxia in the United States (2000–2020) and forecast to 2050 using ARIMA Muhammad Junaid Iqbal, Fiza Wali, Laraib Israr, Noor Ullah Khan, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7613752/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Hereditary ataxias are rare, life-limiting disorders of the cerebellum. Contemporary, population-level mortality patterns in the United States remain incompletely characterized. We quantified national trends in mortality associated with hereditary ataxias and examined differences by sex, race, census region, and urbanization. We analyzed 2000–2020 U.S. mortality data from CDC WONDER (Multiple Cause of Death). Cases were identified by ICD-10 codes G11 for hereditary ataxias. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated per 100,000 using the 2000 U.S. standard population with 95% CIs. Trends were assessed with joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC). Forecast until 2050 was assessed through ARIMA with sensitivity analysis using linear regression. National AAMR increased significantly across 2000–2020. Increases were observed in both sexes, with persistently higher rates among males. Relative increases were largest among Black or African American individuals and in the West census region; patterns were directionally consistent across urbanization categories and increase in mortality was observed in forecast also. Sensitivity analyses yielded qualitatively similar trends, with wider uncertainty in strata. Mortality associated with hereditary ataxias rose in the United States from 2000 to 2020, underscoring growing clinical and public health needs in cerebellar disease. Improved phenotyping and coding, earlier diagnosis, and registry linked surveillance could refine estimates and inform service planning. Health sciences/Diseases Health sciences/Medical research Health sciences/Risk factors Cerebellar Ataxia Spinocerebellar Ataxias Friedreich Ataxia Ataxia Telangiectasia Mortality ARIMA Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementaryFile1.docx SupplementaryFile2.docx SupplementaryFile3.docx SupplementaryFigure1.jpg SupplementaryFigure2.png SupplementaryFigure3.png SupplementaryFigure4.png SupplementaryFigure5.png SupplementaryFigure6.png SupplementaryFigure7.jpg SupplementaryFigure8.jpg SupplementaryFigure9.jpg SupplementaryFigure10.jpg Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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