Decadal and multispecies coral connectivity modeling for conservation and restoration prioritization in Florida

Decadal and multispecies coral connectivity modeling for conservation and restoration prioritization in Florida | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Decadal and multispecies coral connectivity modeling for conservation and restoration prioritization in Florida Thomas Dobbelaere, Ryan Chabotte, Joana Figueiredo, Daniel M Holstein, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464319/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Coral Reefs → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coral populations are rapidly declining due to global warming and local anthropogenic stressors, with nearly all living corals at risk if temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C. As reversing climate change is no longer feasible, effective local actions are essential to mitigate its impacts and support coral recovery through targeted restoration and protection efforts. Biophysical models that simulate coral larval dispersal at reef-scale resolution are crucial for guiding these actions. However, the high computational cost of such models has limited most studies to a few species and spawning events, lacking insights into interannual and interspecific variability. Here, we used the multi-scale ocean model SLIM to simulate larval dispersal for six key reef-building coral species (Diploria labyrinthiformis, Acropora cervicornis, Pseudodiploria strigosa, Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea cavernosa, and Orbicella faveolata) across Florida's Coral Reef over a 10-year period (2012–2021), incorporating experimentally calibrated larval dynamics. Our results show that connectivity indicators are most strongly correlated among species with similar spawning windows. Notably, the weighted in- and out-degrees exhibited the highest interspecific and interannual correlations. By integrating these metrics into a restoration indicator, we identified large clusters of reefs in the Dry Tortugas and northern Broward-Miami regions with significant restoration potential. The in- and out-degrees displayed limited interannual variability, with most fluctuations observed at outer shelf reefs in the Lower Keys and Dry Tortugas, where the ocean circulation is more variable. By providing long-term connectivity estimates for multiple reef-building species, this study offers valuable insights to inform marine conservation strategies. Florida’s Coral Reef Biophysical modeling Connectivity Interannual and interspecific coral variability Full Text Additional Declarations Competing interest reported. Non-financial interests: J.F. serves as a Topic Editor for Coral Reefs. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Coral Reefs → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 01 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 29 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 22 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 02 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 01 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7464319","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":513318888,"identity":"c5e32e22-70b2-43ae-9539-7ed651627e86","order_by":0,"name":"Thomas Dobbelaere","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Université Catholique de Louvain","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thomas","middleName":"","lastName":"Dobbelaere","suffix":""},{"id":513318889,"identity":"0c4590e1-4d06-455f-af8a-e11338021b8e","order_by":1,"name":"Ryan Chabotte","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nova Southeastern University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ryan","middleName":"","lastName":"Chabotte","suffix":""},{"id":513318890,"identity":"b5f5b2cc-c449-4537-a2c6-bfbd1fb4a8d5","order_by":2,"name":"Joana Figueiredo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nova Southeastern University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joana","middleName":"","lastName":"Figueiredo","suffix":""},{"id":513318891,"identity":"83c0af2c-95c0-416f-8dbd-fdfce3e2d272","order_by":3,"name":"Daniel M Holstein","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stony Brook University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"M","lastName":"Holstein","suffix":""},{"id":513318892,"identity":"359e5f56-a611-4c3d-9ed2-e59667d8ea33","order_by":4,"name":"Emmanuel Hanert","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université Catholique de Louvain","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emmanuel","middleName":"","lastName":"Hanert","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-26 15:08:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464319/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464319/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-025-02790-y","type":"published","date":"2025-12-01T15:57:50+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97724791,"identity":"9a8e4153-a11e-43a3-b4a5-d91b8b2a7358","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 16:13:33","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2504247,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"submission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7464319/v1_covered_a39b0e2c-80c7-4f5b-99c0-f1cc6969068b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"Competing interest reported. 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