Vaccination accelerates the race of a respiratory virus against collective immunity

Vaccination accelerates the race of a respiratory virus against collective immunity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Vaccination accelerates the race of a respiratory virus against collective immunity Igor Rouzine This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7526496/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Respiratory viruses persist in a population, because their rapid evolution allows them to escape recognition by antibodies in previously-infected individuals. To optimize parameters of an effective vaccine against a respiratory virus, an epidemiological model of a population infected with evolving virus is coupled to a model of multi-locus evolution and informed from influenza virus data. The cases of overlapping and non-overlapping effect of consecutive vaccinations are considered. The results predict that vaccination will accelerate viral evolution and increase infection incidence (have negative efficacy), unless one of two scenarios takes place: either antibodies elicited by vaccine are more broadly neutralizing than antibodies to natural infection, or the vaccine vector lies ahead of the dominant virus variant in the evolutionary trajectory. These results suggest that the probabilistic prognosis of virus evolution represents a promising strategy of vaccine improvement complementing the search for broadly-neutralizing vaccines. Biological sciences/Evolution/Population genetics Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases/Viral infection Biological sciences/Immunology/Vaccines Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics vaccination broadly-neutralizing virus evolution model Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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