Carbon emission reductions due to high-temperature stress are insufficient to offset carbon sequestration losses

Carbon emission reductions due to high-temperature stress are insufficient to offset carbon sequestration losses | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Carbon emission reductions due to high-temperature stress are insufficient to offset carbon sequestration losses Changqing Jing, Yuqing Shao, Tim Van de Voorde, Rafiq Hamdi, Xiuliang Yuan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5598772/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of high-temperature stress (HS) events in terrestrial ecosystems, impacting both carbon sequestration through photosynthesis and carbon emissions through respiration. However, the net effect of HS on ecosystem carbon balance remains unclear. This study identifies, global HS thresholds for gross primary productivity (GPP) and terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) using a novel impact-based approach (i.e., high-temperature severely limits and adversely affects photosynthesis and respiration). We found that GPP is more susceptible to HS than TER, with HS-driven carbon emission reductions not being sufficient to offset the carbon sequestration losses in recent decades (observations and CMIP6 show offsets of only 30% and 47%, respectively). Projected future scenarios show contrasting outcomes: under SSP1-2.6, HS events are expected to decrease in frequency and intensity relative to historical levels, yet total net carbon sequestration reduction due to HS is projected to be twice that under SSP5-8.5. These findings highlight the urgency of optimal climate adaptation strategies. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem ecology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.docx Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5598772","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":392505416,"identity":"27992518-1d17-479d-a795-12a199d4a30c","order_by":0,"name":"Changqing 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