Energy Efficiency Implications of the Iran Conflict on Thailand’s Agri-Food Supply Chains: A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of ASEAN

Energy Efficiency Implications of the Iran Conflict on Thailand’s Agri-Food Supply Chains: A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of ASEAN | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Short Report Energy Efficiency Implications of the Iran Conflict on Thailand’s Agri-Food Supply Chains: A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of ASEAN Yuanyuan Li, Chen Chen Yong, Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408802/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Iran, US, and Israel conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted global energy markets, raised energy costs and affecting agricultural supply chains. This study employs a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to simulate a − 10% efficiency contraction in Thailand’s coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors, a proxy for the energy price shock. We quantify the impact on output, value added, employment, and export multipliers across domestic, regional, and global layers. Results show that the domestic output multiplier for Thai food products declines from 3.4456 million USD to 3.4290 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand, indicating lower domestic energy efficiency. Spillovers are largest in Lao PDR and Cambodia, with output multipliers declining by 0.0666 and 0.0412 million USD, respectively. Export multipliers to major global markets also contract, with Lao PDR’s exports to East Asia declining by 0.0073 million USD. These findings reveal a three-tier transmission mechanism: domestic, regional and global, which increases the energy intensity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) entire food supply chain through geopolitical energy shocks. Policy impacts include node target energy transformation, regional strategic buffering and adaptive trade policies. Energy efficiency Iran conflict Agri-food supply chains Input-output analysis ASEAN Thailand 1.⁠ ⁠Introduction In retaliation for the military conflict, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz when Iran was hit by a joint military strike by the United States and Israel after February 28, 2026. About 20% of the world's oil trade and some liquefied natural gas (LNG) need to be transported through this strait, according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2025) and the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2026). Most of the oil transported through this waterway is sold to the Asian market, so the conflict has caused a series of shocks to the Asian market (EIA, 2025). Among them, Thailand is the most severely affected, because Thailand, as a net importer of crude oil, relies on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the World Bank (2024) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB, 2023). After the conflict, the energy market has had huge fluctuations: for example, energy prices have soared; crude oil prices have skyrocketed; natural gas shortages have pushed up the cost of nitrogen fertilizers (Wang & Cheng, 2025 ); agriculture is highly dependent on diesel-powered machinery, natural gas fertilizers and refrigerated supply chains, so energy price shocks are extremely sensitive (Pelletier et al., 2011 ); rising energy costs will not only increase production costs, but also indirectly damage food security, such as through the biofuel market and other related channels (Taghizadeh-Hesary et al., 2019 ). According to data from the Asian Development Bank ( 2023 ), Thailand, as a central hub in the ASEAN food trade network, has a deeply integrated regional value chain. This paper uses data from the Asian Development Bank's Multi-Regional Input-Output Database (ADB-MRIO), covering eight ASEAN member states (Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam), but focuses on Laos and Cambodia for three main reasons. First, the food trade in these two countries is closely linked to Thailand: Laos imports approximately 70% of its fuel and over 60% of its processed food ingredients from Thailand; Cambodia imports approximately 65% ​​of its fuel and 55% of its intermediate food products from Thailand (Asian Development Bank, 2023 ; World Bank, 2024). Second, both countries lack domestic energy resources and are almost entirely dependent on fuel imports from Thailand, which exacerbates the trade transmission effect. Third, as shown in Table 1, they experienced the largest declines in output, value added, and employment multipliers. The export multiplier is a key mechanism for the role of global transmission in this study. It is defined as the ratio of a country's exports to the destination area to the country's final demand. Under the framework of our multi-regional input-output model (MRIO), the export multiplier comes from the \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}W}\) term of the Leontief inverse matrix, which reflects how changes in the final demand for Thai food stimulate exports from ASEAN countries to the rest of the world. When the energy shock increases Thailand's production costs, it reduces the competitiveness of ASEAN food exports, leading to lower export multipliers to major destinations such as East Asia, Europe, and North America. This contraction reflects an increase in energy intensity in global food trade, as the same number of exports now requires more energy input. Therefore, the export multiplier constitutes the global layer of our three-level transmission mechanism, linking local energy shocks with international trade. The spread of this shock is not limited to Thailand and its immediate neighbors. ASEAN economies have been deeply integrated into the global grain trade, and about 70–80% of their agricultural exports are used in extra-regional markets (ADB, 2023). Therefore, the energy-driven interruption of Thailand's food processing sector can be further spread through the international supply chain, shrinking the export multiplier (exports generated by final demand per unit) to major destinations such as East Asia, Europe and North America, and increasing the energy intensity of global food trade. This global layer has completed the three-layer transmission mechanism of our investigation. Although there are enough studies showing the impact of energy on agriculture (Taghizadeh-Hesary et al., 2019 ), few people explore how this impact affects energy efficiency in ASEAN and the entire geographical region through multi-regional food supply chains. Nguyen et al. ( 2024 ) found that Malaysia and Thailand have the greatest impact on energy prices in Southeast Asia. This paper uses the MRIO model (Nguyen et al., 2020 ) to simulate the 10% efficiency contraction of Thailand's coke, refined oil and nuclear fuel sectors, which is the agent of the soaring energy costs caused by the conflict in 2026 and the closure of Hormuz, and analyzes the output, added value, employment and export multipliers. The change reveals a three-layer transmission mechanism: Thailand's loss of domestic efficiency, regional spillover to ASEAN economies, and global trade interruption. 2.⁠ ⁠Methodology 2.1 Data Sources All data comes from the Multi-Regional Input-Output Database of the Asian Development Bank (ADB-MRIO, 2024). The database provides a unified transnational transaction matrix of trade links between eight ASEAN member countries and the rest of the world. Choosing 2024 as the benchmark year avoids the instability caused by the reorganization of the geopolitical pattern after the COVID-19 pandemic and carries out a detailed overview of the internal consistency of the production and trade structure in the region. 2.2 Sectoral Definitions and Multi‑Regional Framework We focus on Thailand’s food, beverages, and tobacco sector, the core of its agri‑food processing industry. All multipliers are calculated for a 1 million USD increase in final demand for Thai food products. Following Nguyen et al. ( 2020 ), the Leontief inverse matrix \(\:{\rm\:B}={(\:{\rm\:I}-{\rm\:A})}^{-1}\:\) is partitioned into three layers: $$\:{\rm\:B}=\left[\begin{array}{ccc}{B}_{{\rm\:T}{\rm\:T}}&\:{B}_{{\rm\:T}{\rm\:A}}&\:{B}_{{\rm\:T}W}\\\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}{\rm\:T}}&\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}{\rm\:A}}&\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}W}\\\:{B}_{WT}&\:{B}_{WA}&\:{B}_{WW}\end{array}\right]$$ where T = Thailand, A = ASEAN, W = rest of the world. · Multiplier effects ( \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:T}{\rm\:T}},\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}{\rm\:A}}\) ): domestic output from own final demand. · Spillover effects ( \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}{\rm\:T}}\) , \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:T}{\rm\:A}}\) , \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}W}\) , \(\:{B}_{WA})\) : output generated in one country by final demand changes in another. · International feedback effects : home‑country output from partner countries using home‑country inputs. These correspond directly to our three‑layer transmission: · Domestic impacts in Thailand ( \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:T}{\rm\:T}})\) · Regional spillovers to ASEAN ( \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}{\rm\:T}})\) · Export multipliers from \(\:{B}_{{\rm\:A}W}\) for global transmission. As highlighted in the introduction, export multipliers measure how much exports from ASEAN to the rest of the world are generated per unit of final demand for Thai food products. 2.3 Shock Simulation To simulate the energy price increase from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we apply a − 10% efficiency contraction to the direct input coefficients of the coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors in Thailand. This contraction raises production costs for all energy‑using sectors, including food processing. The − 10% magnitude is a stylized representation of a moderate energy cost increase, consistent with typical energy price shock scenarios (Nguyen et al., 2024 ). The shock propagates through production networks, raising input costs for energy-intensive industries such as food processing, transport, and storage. We compare baseline multipliers (2024 ADB‑MRIO and NESDC tables without shock) against shock‑scenario multipliers to trace energy‑driven cost‑push inflation from Thailand through ASEAN to global markets. 3. Results This shock has led to a decline in output, value added, and employment multipliers in all ASEAN countries, with Laos and Cambodia being the most affected. Table 1 . Output, value added, and employment multipliers under baseline and –10% shock scenarios (Sources: ADB-MRIO 2024) (Values per 1 million USD increase in final demand for agri‑food products) Country Output (USD million) Value added (USD million) Employment (persons) Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario Thailand 3.4456 3.429 1.3659 1.3623 140 140 Lao People's Democratic Republic 1.03 0.9634 0.3837 0.3568 40 38 Cambodia 0.5287 0.4875 0.1974 0.1809 20 18 Indonesia 0.1277 0.1194 0.0528 0.0495 5 4 Malaysia 0.2005 0.1918 0.0882 0.0847 9 8 Philippines 0.1379 0.1303 0.0558 0.0528 5 5 Singapore 0.1119 0.1086 0.051 0.0497 4 4 Viet Nam 0.1007 0.0968 0.039 0.0374 4 4 Brunei Darussalam 0.0907 0.0883 0.0423 0.0413 4 4 a All data are derived from the ADB‑MRIO 2024 database (ADB, 2024). The shock multiplier is based on a –10% efficiency contraction in the coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors. Value-added and employment data for Thailand are from the same source. Table 2(a) Baseline scenario. Export multipliers by destination under baseline and –10% efficiency shock scenarios (Values in USD million per 1 million USD increase in final demand for agri‑food products; sources: ADB-MRIO 2024) Destination Lao People's Democratic Republic Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Viet Nam Brunei Darussalam Southeast Asia 0.0524 0.0255 0.0057 0.0049 0.0041 0.0024 0.0032 0.0033 Central Asia 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 South Asia 0.0148 0.0081 0.0022 0.0033 0.0024 0.0017 0.0019 0.0013 Europe 0.0455 0.0249 0.0068 0.0105 0.0073 0.0066 0.0048 0.005 Oceania 0.0098 0.0054 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0012 0.0013 0.0009 Rest of World 0.0504 0.0268 0.0069 0.0091 0.0073 0.0053 0.0049 0.0035 South America 0.0028 0.0014 0.0004 0.0007 0.0005 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 North America 0.0407 0.0232 0.0063 0.0089 0.0068 0.0047 0.0041 0.0036 East Asia 0.0913 0.0494 0.0125 0.0179 0.013 0.0092 0.0099 0.0072 Table 2(b ) –10% shock scenario . Export multipliers by destination under baseline and –10% efficiency shock scenarios (Values in USD million per 1 million USD increase in final demand for agri‑food products; sources: ADB-MRIO 2024) Destination Lao People's Democratic Republic Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Viet Nam Brunei Darussalam Southeast Asia 0.0477 0.0231 0.0053 0.0046 0.0038 0.0023 0.0030 0.0032 Central Asia 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 South Asia 0.0137 0.0074 0.0021 0.0032 0.0023 0.0017 0.0018 0.0013 Europe 0.0421 0.0228 0.0064 0.0100 0.0070 0.0065 0.0046 0.0049 Oceania 0.0091 0.0050 0.0021 0.0021 0.0021 0.0012 0.0012 0.0009 Rest of World 0.0458 0.0242 0.0064 0.0086 0.0068 0.0051 0.0046 0.0034 South America 0.0026 0.0013 0.0004 0.0007 0.0005 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 North America 0.0376 0.0212 0.0059 0.0084 0.0065 0.0045 0.0039 0.0035 East Asia 0.084 0.045 0.0116 0.017 0.0122 0.0088 0.0094 0.007 a The shock simulates a 10% efficiency contraction in Thailand’s coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors. 3.1 Domestic energy efficiency impacts of the Iran conflict Based on the ADB-MRIO 2024 database (ADB, 2024), the estimated baseline output multiplier for Thailand’s Food sector is 3.4456 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand (Table 1). When the efficiency of energy sectors –10%, the multiplier declines to 3.4290 million USD, a reduction of 0.0166 million USD (Table 1). Declining domestic energy efficiency means rising energy costs and decreasing unit end-demand output, requiring more energy to maintain the same food production. 3.2 Spillover effects from Thailand to ASEAN economies The energy shock propagates through regional production networks and reduces output multipliers across all eight ASEAN countries (Table 1). The economies with the largest declines in output multipliers among those closely linked to Thai agriculture included Lao PDR: output multiplier falls from 1.0300 to 0.9634 million USD (- 0.0666 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand); Cambodia: output multiplier decreases from 0.5287 to 0.4875 million USD (- 0.0412 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand); Other ASEAN countries show smaller declines, ranging from 0.0033 to 0.0120 million USD. Value-added multipliers follow a consistent pattern. In Lao PDR, a 1 million USD increase in final demand generates 0.3837 million USD of GDP under the baseline, but only 0.3568 million USD after the shock (a reduction of 0.0269). Cambodia’s value-added multiplier declines from 0.1974 to 0.1809 million USD (a reduction of 0.0165). Employment multipliers also contract: Lao PDR drops from 40 persons to 38 persons per 1 million USD (- 2 persons), Cambodia from 20 persons to 18 persons (- 2 persons). Other countries show smaller declines or no change. These differential effects confirm that the intensity of energy shocks varies among core hub countries because fixed logistical demands (cross-border transport, refrigeration) persist even with declining production. 3.3 Transmission of the Iran conflict to global markets via ASEAN trade The Iran-induced shock further reduces export multipliers to destinations beyond the region (Table 2). Per 1 million USD of final demand: Lao PDR’s exports to East Asia fall from 0.0913 to 0.0840 million USD (-0.0073); Cambodia’s exports to Europe fall from 0.0249 to 0.0228 million USD (-0.0021); Viet Nam’s exports to North America fall from 0.0041 to 0.0039 million USD (- 0.0002). Viet Nam is highlighted here because, unlike Lao PDR’s and Cambodia’s, its decline is not due to heavy dependence on Thai inputs but rather to its role as a competitor of Thailand in agricultural exports (e.g., rice, coffee, seafood). The energy shock raises production costs in Viet Nam indirectly through higher fuel prices, but its supply chains are less integrated with Thailand’s food sector. Similarly, Malaysia is mentioned because, as a net energy producer, its output multiplier decline is small (- 0.0087 million USD) and differs from the pattern of import-dependent economies. These examples illustrate that the transmission mechanism varies according to each country’s energy and trade structure. Similar declines are observed across other extra-regional destinations. For example, Lao PDR’s exports to Southeast Asia decline from 0.0524 to 0.0477 million USD (-0.0047), Cambodia’s exports to East Asia decline from 0.0494 to 0.0450 million USD (-0.0044), These reductions reflect how a geopolitical shock in the Middle East (Iran conflict) cascades through Thailand’s agri-food system, then to ASEAN regional supply chains, and finally to global markets. Supply chain responses, such as rerouting shipments, increasing storage, and substituting inputs, typically raise transportation distances and energy use per unit of traded output, further diminishing global energy efficiency. 3.4 Three-layer transmission mechanism from the Iran conflict to global energy efficiency The results reveal a clear three-layer transmission mechanism: Domestic layer (Thailand): output multiplier by 0.0166 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand, indicating direct domestic energy efficiency loss. Regional layer (ASEAN): spillovers to Lao PDR and Cambodia with largest output, value added, and employment multiplier declines, increasing regional energy intensity. Global layer (Extra-regional markets): export multipliers to all major destinations contract, with the largest reduction observed in East Asia‑bound trade (e.g., Lao PDR’s - 0.0073 million USD). 4.⁠ ⁠Discussion 4.1 From the Iranian conflict to Thailand: domestic energy efficiency declines The Iranian conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have raised global oil prices, directly affecting Thailand's net importer, where 50% of its oil passes through the strait. Our shock simulation - the efficiency of Thailand's energy sector shrinks by -10%, reduces the output multiplier of Thailand's food sector from 3.4456 to 3.429 million USD per 1 million USD in final demand. This decrease of 0.0166 million USD foreshadows a direct loss of domestic energy efficiency: higher energy costs reduce additional output per unit of final demand. Thailand's weakness stems from its role as an ASEAN food processing center. The supply chain is concentrated, and it relies heavily on imported fuels. 4.2 From Thailand to ASEAN: Regional Overflow The impact spreads from Thailand to neighboring countries through trade and supply chains. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Cambodia experienced the largest decline: output multipliers decreased by 0.0666 and 0.0412 million USD, respectively; added value decreased by 0.0269 and 0.0165 million USD; and 2 workers were employed. These countries rely on Thailand to provide 60–70% of their fuel and processed food inputs and lack domestic energy buffers (World Bank, 2024). In contrast, Indonesia and Malaysia, which are net energy producers, the output multipliers have a smaller decline (0.0083–0.0087 million USD). Vietnam's output multipliers small decline (0.0039 million USD) reflects its competitive agricultural processing capacity and reduced dependence on Thai investment (ADB, 2023). This asymmetrical spillover confirms that the energy impact of the core hub increases the energy intensity of the region. 4.3 From ASEAN to the Global Market: Global Communication The shock further contracted the export multiplier from ASEAN to out-of-regional destinations. The Lao People's Democratic Republic's exports to East Asia decreased by 0.0073 million USD, Cambodia's exports to Europe decreased by 0.0021 million USD, and Vietnam's exports to North America decreased by 0.0002 million USD. Similar declines have occurred in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Oceania and other parts of the world. These cuts illustrate how the geopolitical shock of the Middle East entered the ASEAN supply chain through Thailand's agri-food system and ultimately increased the energy intensity of global food trade. Supply chain response, rerouting goods, increasing storage, and replacing inputs usually increase the transportation distance and energy use per unit of transaction output. 4.4 Policy impact: distinguish by layer The three interventions correspond to the three levels and suggest that the applicability varies throughout ASEAN. First, ⁠Node target energy transformation (mainly for Thailand). The disconnection between Thailand's food processing node and the volatility of fossil fuels is the most direct way to prevent the spread of energy efficiency loss. The ASEAN Secretariat (2023) supports such initiatives. The policy is designed for Thailand as a central hub, but this concept of identifying and strengthening key nodes can be extended to other ASEAN countries with similar centralized supply chains. Second,⁠ ⁠the regional strategic buffer zone (applicable to all ASEAN). Sharing fertilizer inventory and regional cold storage networks will stabilize the food processing of the whole region. The ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE, 2020 ) called for the strengthening of regional energy connectivity and joint emergency response mechanisms. The policy also applies to all ASEAN members. Third,⁠ ⁠Adaptive trade policies (especially for members who rely on imports). Diversified input procurement and development of alternative processing centers reduce the risk of concentration. Wang and Cheng ( 2025 ) show that diversification enhances resilience. ADB (2023) emphasizes proactive supply chain diversification. This policy is most in line with the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Cambodia and other ASEAN economies that depend on imports, while energy-sufficient member countries (Malaysia and Indonesia) may prioritize different measures. Together, these interventions solve the three-layer transmission mechanism: Thailand's loss of domestic efficiency (policy 1), regional spillover to neighboring economies (policy 2) and global trade disruption (policy 3). 4.5 Restrictions Limitations include fixed technical coefficients in MRIO, the stylized − 10% shock magnitude, and the backward‑looking nature of input‑output data. This study has several limitations inherent to the MRIO approach. First, the model assumes fixed technical coefficients, meaning that production technology and trade patterns do not adjust to energy price changes in the short run. Second, the − 10% shock magnitude is a stylized representation of energy cost increases; actual price effects may vary by fuel type and time horizon. Third, input‑output tables are inherently backward‑looking and may not fully capture forward‑looking adaptive behaviors or structural changes that occur after the reference year. 5.⁠ ⁠Conclusion This study demonstrates that the 2026 Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz induced energy price shocks, reducing energy efficiency in Thailand’s food sector and generating substantial spillovers across ASEAN and global trade partners. Using the multiplier decomposition framework of Nguyen et al. ( 2020 ), we show: Domestic multiplier effects in Thailand decline by 0.0166 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand. Regional spillovers in Lao PDR and Cambodia decline by 0.0666 million USD and 0.0412 million USD, respectively. Global transmission effects contract export multipliers, with Lao PDR’s East Asian exports declining by 0.0073 million USD. The research results prove that the chain reaction triggered by geopolitical energy shocks is important for enhancing energy efficiency at the national, regional, and global levels. A multi-level resilience strategy is more beneficial to ASEAN's sustainable food supply chain. Declarations Author Contribution Li involves in paper writing and analysis. Yong contributes to idea development, methodology, paper refinement and supervision. Abdul Bahri contributes to paper revision. Funding Declaration : The study was funded by an International Grant (grant no. IF078-2022) from the Singapore Food Agency. References ACE. (2020). ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020. ASEAN Centre for Energy. Asian Development Bank. (2023). ASEAN and Global Value Chains: Locking in Resilience and Sustainability. Asian Development Bank. Asian Development Bank. (2024). Key Indicators Database – Asian Development Bank. https://kidb.adb.org/globalization/current Association of Southeast Asian Nations Secretariat. (2023). ASEAN Key Figures 2023 . ASEAN Secretariat. https://www.aseanstats.org/publication/akf-2023/ International Energy Agency. (2026). Oil Market Report – March 2026 . IEA Publications. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026 Nguyen, D. B., Nong, D. T., Simshauser, P., & Pham, H. (2024). Economic and supply chain impacts from energy price hikes in Southeast Asia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 84, 929–940 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.025 Nguyen, Q. T., et al. (2020). Analysis of bilateral input-output trading between Vietnam and China. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7 (6), 157–172. Pelletier, N., Audsley, E., Brodt, S., Garnett, T., Henriksson, P., Kendall, A., Kramer, K. J., Murphy, D., Nemecek, T., & Troell, M. (2011). Energy intensity of agriculture and food systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 36(1), 223–246. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-081710-161014 Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E., & Yoshino, N. (2019). Energy and food security: Linkages through price volatility. Energy Policy, 128, 796–806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.043 U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2025, June 16). Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint. U.S. Department of Energy. Retrieved April 11, 2026, from https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504 Wang, Y., & Cheng, P. (2025). Supply chain upstream shocks and downstream concentration in the new energy sector: Balancing diversification and centralization. Energy Economics, 145, 108510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108510 World Bank Group. (2024). Open Knowledge Repository. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/982e03f5-79ab-4b81-857a-4820f3c4eef7 Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9408802","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Short Report","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":624699451,"identity":"a893ec9c-3872-43a9-8f1c-5b1c168fbfb9","order_by":0,"name":"Yuanyuan Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Malaya","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuanyuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":624699454,"identity":"80965539-3815-457c-8971-f89a1508a3e7","order_by":1,"name":"Chen Chen Yong","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACGzApQYqWNNK1HCZBC3/7GcPHBb/OJ65tYD54m4dhW2IDIS0SZ3KMjWf23U7cdoAt2ZqH4TZhLQYSPGbSvD0gLUAGKVrOAbXwfyNBC8+PAyBb2IjTInEmrdiYtyHZeNthNmPLOQa3jQlq4W8/vPExzx872W3Hmx/eeFNxW5agFgYGDgMGxjYgzQx2J4MjEVrYHzAw/EFw7QnrGAWjYBSMgpEGAFyOPE+VhjtcAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Malaya","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chen","middleName":"Chen","lastName":"Yong","suffix":""},{"id":624699456,"identity":"52f57317-7838-44f1-9ccc-e097b84bda92","order_by":2,"name":"Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Malaya","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elya","middleName":"Nabila Abdul","lastName":"Bahri","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-13 23:38:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408802/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408802/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107705339,"identity":"3cc5efde-4f8b-4c6e-b257-750679d7b7f0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-24 09:11:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":289152,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9408802/v1/3462ed31-9249-407d-8bfe-e551909c008e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Energy Efficiency Implications of the Iran Conflict on Thailand’s Agri-Food Supply Chains: A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of ASEAN","fulltext":[{"header":"1.⁠ ⁠Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn retaliation for the military conflict, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz when Iran was hit by a joint military strike by the United States and Israel after February 28, 2026. About 20% of the world's oil trade and some liquefied natural gas (LNG) need to be transported through this strait, according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2025) and the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2026). Most of the oil transported through this waterway is sold to the Asian market, so the conflict has caused a series of shocks to the Asian market (EIA, 2025). Among them, Thailand is the most severely affected, because Thailand, as a net importer of crude oil, relies on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the World Bank (2024) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB, 2023). After the conflict, the energy market has had huge fluctuations: for example, energy prices have soared; crude oil prices have skyrocketed; natural gas shortages have pushed up the cost of nitrogen fertilizers (Wang \u0026amp; Cheng, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e); agriculture is highly dependent on diesel-powered machinery, natural gas fertilizers and refrigerated supply chains, so energy price shocks are extremely sensitive (Pelletier et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e); rising energy costs will not only increase production costs, but also indirectly damage food security, such as through the biofuel market and other related channels (Taghizadeh-Hesary et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to data from the Asian Development Bank (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), Thailand, as a central hub in the ASEAN food trade network, has a deeply integrated regional value chain. This paper uses data from the Asian Development Bank's Multi-Regional Input-Output Database (ADB-MRIO), covering eight ASEAN member states (Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam), but focuses on Laos and Cambodia for three main reasons. First, the food trade in these two countries is closely linked to Thailand: Laos imports approximately 70% of its fuel and over 60% of its processed food ingredients from Thailand; Cambodia imports approximately 65% ​​of its fuel and 55% of its intermediate food products from Thailand (Asian Development Bank, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; World Bank, 2024). Second, both countries lack domestic energy resources and are almost entirely dependent on fuel imports from Thailand, which exacerbates the trade transmission effect. Third, as shown in Table\u0026nbsp;1, they experienced the largest declines in output, value added, and employment multipliers. The export multiplier is a key mechanism for the role of global transmission in this study. It is defined as the ratio of a country's exports to the destination area to the country's final demand. Under the framework of our multi-regional input-output model (MRIO), the export multiplier comes from the \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}W}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e term of the Leontief inverse matrix, which reflects how changes in the final demand for Thai food stimulate exports from ASEAN countries to the rest of the world. When the energy shock increases Thailand's production costs, it reduces the competitiveness of ASEAN food exports, leading to lower export multipliers to major destinations such as East Asia, Europe, and North America. This contraction reflects an increase in energy intensity in global food trade, as the same number of exports now requires more energy input. Therefore, the export multiplier constitutes the global layer of our three-level transmission mechanism, linking local energy shocks with international trade.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe spread of this shock is not limited to Thailand and its immediate neighbors. ASEAN economies have been deeply integrated into the global grain trade, and about 70\u0026ndash;80% of their agricultural exports are used in extra-regional markets (ADB, 2023). Therefore, the energy-driven interruption of Thailand's food processing sector can be further spread through the international supply chain, shrinking the export multiplier (exports generated by final demand per unit) to major destinations such as East Asia, Europe and North America, and increasing the energy intensity of global food trade. This global layer has completed the three-layer transmission mechanism of our investigation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlthough there are enough studies showing the impact of energy on agriculture (Taghizadeh-Hesary et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), few people explore how this impact affects energy efficiency in ASEAN and the entire geographical region through multi-regional food supply chains. Nguyen et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) found that Malaysia and Thailand have the greatest impact on energy prices in Southeast Asia. This paper uses the MRIO model (Nguyen et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) to simulate the 10% efficiency contraction of Thailand's coke, refined oil and nuclear fuel sectors, which is the agent of the soaring energy costs caused by the conflict in 2026 and the closure of Hormuz, and analyzes the output, added value, employment and export multipliers. The change reveals a three-layer transmission mechanism: Thailand's loss of domestic efficiency, regional spillover to ASEAN economies, and global trade interruption.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2.⁠ ⁠Methodology","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1 Data Sources\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll data comes from the Multi-Regional Input-Output Database of the Asian Development Bank (ADB-MRIO, 2024). The database provides a unified transnational transaction matrix of trade links between eight ASEAN member countries and the rest of the world. Choosing 2024 as the benchmark year avoids the instability caused by the reorganization of the geopolitical pattern after the COVID-19 pandemic and carries out a detailed overview of the internal consistency of the production and trade structure in the region.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2 Sectoral Definitions and Multi‑Regional Framework\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe focus on Thailand\u0026rsquo;s food, beverages, and tobacco sector, the core of its agri‑food processing industry. All multipliers are calculated for a 1\u0026nbsp;million USD increase in final demand for Thai food products.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFollowing Nguyen et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), the Leontief inverse matrix \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\rm\\:B}={(\\:{\\rm\\:I}-{\\rm\\:A})}^{-1}\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003eis partitioned into three layers:\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:{\\rm\\:B}=\\left[\\begin{array}{ccc}{B}_{{\\rm\\:T}{\\rm\\:T}}\u0026amp;\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:T}{\\rm\\:A}}\u0026amp;\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:T}W}\\\\\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}{\\rm\\:T}}\u0026amp;\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}{\\rm\\:A}}\u0026amp;\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}W}\\\\\\:{B}_{WT}\u0026amp;\\:{B}_{WA}\u0026amp;\\:{B}_{WW}\\end{array}\\right]$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;Thailand, \u003cem\u003eA\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;ASEAN, \u003cem\u003eW\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;rest of the world.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026middot; \u003cem\u003eMultiplier effects\u003c/em\u003e (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:T}{\\rm\\:T}},\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}{\\rm\\:A}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e): domestic output from own final demand.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026middot; \u003cem\u003eSpillover effects\u003c/em\u003e (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}{\\rm\\:T}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:T}{\\rm\\:A}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}W}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{WA})\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e: output generated in one country by final demand changes in another.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026middot; \u003cem\u003eInternational feedback effects\u003c/em\u003e: home‑country output from partner countries using home‑country inputs.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese correspond directly to our three‑layer transmission:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026middot; Domestic impacts in Thailand (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:T}{\\rm\\:T}})\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026middot; Regional spillovers to ASEAN (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}{\\rm\\:T}})\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026middot; Export multipliers from \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{B}_{{\\rm\\:A}W}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e for global transmission. As highlighted in the introduction, export multipliers measure how much exports from ASEAN to the rest of the world are generated per unit of final demand for Thai food products.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3 Shock Simulation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo simulate the energy price increase from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we apply a \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;10% efficiency contraction to the direct input coefficients of the coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors in Thailand. This contraction raises production costs for all energy‑using sectors, including food processing. The \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;10% magnitude is a stylized representation of a moderate energy cost increase, consistent with typical energy price shock scenarios (Nguyen et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The shock propagates through production networks, raising input costs for energy-intensive industries such as food processing, transport, and storage.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe compare baseline multipliers (2024 ADB‑MRIO and NESDC tables without shock) against shock‑scenario multipliers to trace energy‑driven cost‑push inflation from Thailand through ASEAN to global markets.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis shock has led to a decline in output, value added, and employment multipliers in all ASEAN countries, with Laos and Cambodia being the most affected.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 718px;\"\u003e\n \u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"7\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 1\u003c/strong\u003e. Output, value added, and employment multipliers under baseline and \u0026ndash;10% shock scenarios (Sources: ADB-MRIO 2024)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"7\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Values per 1 million USD increase in final demand for agri‑food products)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCountry\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"2\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOutput (USD million)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"2\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eValue added (USD million)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"2\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEmployment (persons)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBaseline\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eScenario\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBaseline\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eScenario\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBaseline\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eScenario\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThailand\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.4456\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.429\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.3659\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.3623\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e140\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e140\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLao People\u0026apos;s Democratic Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.03\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.9634\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.3837\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.3568\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e40\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e38\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCambodia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.5287\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.4875\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1974\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1809\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e18\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIndonesia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1277\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1194\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0528\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0495\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalaysia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.2005\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1918\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0882\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0847\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePhilippines\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1379\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1303\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0558\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0528\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSingapore\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1119\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1086\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.051\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0497\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eViet Nam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.1007\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0968\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.039\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0374\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrunei Darussalam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0907\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0883\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0423\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0413\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 718px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003csup\u003ea\u003c/sup\u003e All data are derived from the ADB‑MRIO 2024 database (ADB, 2024). The shock multiplier is based on a \u0026ndash;10% efficiency contraction in the coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors. Value-added and employment data for Thailand are from the same source.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"9\" style=\"width: 931px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 2(a)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003eBaseline scenario. Export multipliers by destination under baseline and \u0026ndash;10% efficiency shock scenarios (Values in USD million per 1 million USD increase in final demand for agri‑food products;\u0026nbsp;sources: ADB-MRIO 2024)\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDestination\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLao People\u0026apos;s Democratic Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCambodia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIndonesia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalaysia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePhilippines\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSingapore\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eViet Nam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrunei Darussalam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSoutheast Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0524\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0255\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0057\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0049\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0041\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0024\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0032\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0033\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCentral Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0002\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSouth Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0148\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0081\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0033\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0024\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0017\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0019\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0013\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEurope\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0455\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0249\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0068\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0105\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0073\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0066\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0048\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.005\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOceania\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0098\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0054\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0012\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0013\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0009\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRest of World\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0504\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0268\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0069\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0091\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0073\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0053\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0049\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0035\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSouth America\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0028\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0014\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0004\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0007\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0005\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0004\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNorth America\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0407\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0232\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0063\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0089\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0068\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0047\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0041\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0036\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEast Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 167px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0913\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0494\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0125\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0179\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.013\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0092\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0099\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0072\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"9\" style=\"width: 931px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 2(b\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cem\u003e)\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003e\u0026ndash;10% shock scenario\u003cem\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e Export multipliers by destination under baseline and \u0026ndash;10% efficiency shock scenarios (Values in USD million per 1 million USD increase in final demand for agri‑food products;\u0026nbsp;sources: ADB-MRIO 2024)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDestination\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLao People\u0026apos;s Democratic Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCambodia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIndonesia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalaysia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePhilippines\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSingapore\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eViet Nam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrunei Darussalam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSoutheast Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0477\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0231\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0053\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0046\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0038\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0023\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0030\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0032\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCentral Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0002\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0000\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSouth Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0137\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0074\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0032\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0023\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0017\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0018\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0013\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEurope\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0421\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0228\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0064\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0100\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0070\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0065\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0046\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0049\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOceania\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0091\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0050\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0012\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0012\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0009\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRest of World\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0458\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0242\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0064\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0086\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0068\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0051\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0046\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0034\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSouth America\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0026\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0013\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0004\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0007\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0005\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0004\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0003\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNorth America\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0376\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0212\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0059\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0084\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0065\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0045\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0039\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0035\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 107px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEast Asia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 158px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.084\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.045\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0116\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.017\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 104px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0122\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 94px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0088\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 95px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.0094\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" style=\"width: 108px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.007\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"9\" style=\"width: 931px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003csup\u003ea\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003eThe shock simulates a 10% efficiency contraction in Thailand\u0026rsquo;s coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.1 Domestic energy efficiency impacts of the Iran conflict\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBased on the ADB-MRIO 2024 database (ADB, 2024), the estimated baseline output multiplier for Thailand\u0026rsquo;s Food sector is 3.4456 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand (Table 1). When the efficiency of energy sectors \u0026ndash;10%, the multiplier declines to 3.4290 million USD, a reduction of 0.0166 million USD (Table 1). Declining domestic energy efficiency means rising energy costs and decreasing unit end-demand output, requiring more energy to maintain the same food production.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.2 Spillover effects from Thailand to ASEAN economies\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe energy shock propagates through regional production networks and reduces output multipliers across all eight ASEAN countries (Table 1). The economies with the largest declines in output multipliers among those closely linked to Thai agriculture included Lao PDR: output multiplier falls from 1.0300 to 0.9634 million USD (- 0.0666 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand); Cambodia: output multiplier decreases from 0.5287 to 0.4875 million USD (- 0.0412 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand); Other ASEAN countries show smaller declines, ranging from 0.0033 to 0.0120 million USD.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eValue-added multipliers follow a consistent pattern. In Lao PDR, a 1 million USD increase in final demand generates 0.3837 million USD of GDP under the baseline, but only 0.3568 million USD after the shock (a reduction of 0.0269). Cambodia\u0026rsquo;s value-added multiplier declines from 0.1974 to 0.1809 million USD (a reduction of 0.0165).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEmployment multipliers also contract: Lao PDR drops from 40 persons to 38 persons per 1 million USD (- 2 persons), Cambodia from 20 persons to 18 persons (- 2 persons). Other countries show smaller declines or no change. These differential effects confirm that the intensity of energy shocks varies among core hub countries because fixed logistical demands (cross-border transport, refrigeration) persist even with declining production.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.3 Transmission of the Iran conflict to global markets via ASEAN trade\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Iran-induced shock further reduces export multipliers to destinations beyond the region (Table 2). Per 1 million USD of final demand: Lao PDR\u0026rsquo;s exports to East Asia fall from 0.0913 to 0.0840 million USD (-0.0073); Cambodia\u0026rsquo;s exports to Europe fall from 0.0249 to 0.0228 million USD (-0.0021); Viet Nam\u0026rsquo;s exports to North America fall from 0.0041 to 0.0039 million USD (- 0.0002). Viet Nam is highlighted here because, unlike Lao PDR\u0026rsquo;s and Cambodia\u0026rsquo;s, its decline is not due to heavy dependence on Thai inputs but rather to its role as a competitor of Thailand in agricultural exports (e.g., rice, coffee, seafood). The energy shock raises production costs in Viet Nam indirectly through higher fuel prices, but its supply chains are less integrated with Thailand\u0026rsquo;s food sector. Similarly, Malaysia is mentioned because, as a net energy producer, its output multiplier decline is small (- 0.0087 million USD) and differs from the pattern of import-dependent economies. These examples illustrate that the transmission mechanism varies according to each country\u0026rsquo;s energy and trade structure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSimilar declines are observed across other extra-regional destinations. For example, Lao PDR\u0026rsquo;s exports to Southeast Asia decline from 0.0524 to 0.0477 million USD (-0.0047), Cambodia\u0026rsquo;s exports to East Asia decline from 0.0494 to 0.0450 million USD (-0.0044), These reductions reflect how a geopolitical shock in the Middle East (Iran conflict) cascades through Thailand\u0026rsquo;s agri-food system, then to ASEAN regional supply chains, and finally to global markets. Supply chain responses, such as rerouting shipments, increasing storage, and substituting inputs, typically raise transportation distances and energy use per unit of traded output, further diminishing global energy efficiency.\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.4 Three-layer transmission mechanism from the Iran conflict to global energy efficiency\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results reveal a clear three-layer transmission mechanism:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDomestic layer (Thailand): output multiplier by 0.0166 million USD per 1 million USD of final demand, indicating direct domestic energy efficiency loss.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRegional layer (ASEAN): spillovers to Lao PDR and Cambodia with largest output, value added, and employment multiplier declines, increasing regional energy intensity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGlobal layer (Extra-regional markets): export multipliers to all major destinations contract, with the largest reduction observed in East Asia‑bound trade (e.g., Lao PDR\u0026rsquo;s - 0.0073 million USD).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4.⁠ ⁠Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1 From the Iranian conflict to Thailand: domestic energy efficiency declines\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Iranian conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have raised global oil prices, directly affecting Thailand's net importer, where 50% of its oil passes through the strait. Our shock simulation - the efficiency of Thailand's energy sector shrinks by -10%, reduces the output multiplier of Thailand's food sector from 3.4456 to 3.429\u0026nbsp;million USD per 1\u0026nbsp;million USD in final demand. This decrease of 0.0166\u0026nbsp;million USD foreshadows a direct loss of domestic energy efficiency: higher energy costs reduce additional output per unit of final demand. Thailand's weakness stems from its role as an ASEAN food processing center. The supply chain is concentrated, and it relies heavily on imported fuels.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2 From Thailand to ASEAN: Regional Overflow\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe impact spreads from Thailand to neighboring countries through trade and supply chains. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Cambodia experienced the largest decline: output multipliers decreased by 0.0666 and 0.0412\u0026nbsp;million USD, respectively; added value decreased by 0.0269 and 0.0165\u0026nbsp;million USD; and 2 workers were employed. These countries rely on Thailand to provide 60\u0026ndash;70% of their fuel and processed food inputs and lack domestic energy buffers (World Bank, 2024). In contrast, Indonesia and Malaysia, which are net energy producers, the output multipliers have a smaller decline (0.0083\u0026ndash;0.0087\u0026nbsp;million USD). Vietnam's output multipliers small decline (0.0039\u0026nbsp;million USD) reflects its competitive agricultural processing capacity and reduced dependence on Thai investment (ADB, 2023). This asymmetrical spillover confirms that the energy impact of the core hub increases the energy intensity of the region.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3 From ASEAN to the Global Market: Global Communication\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe shock further contracted the export multiplier from ASEAN to out-of-regional destinations. The Lao People's Democratic Republic's exports to East Asia decreased by 0.0073\u0026nbsp;million USD, Cambodia's exports to Europe decreased by 0.0021\u0026nbsp;million USD, and Vietnam's exports to North America decreased by 0.0002\u0026nbsp;million USD. Similar declines have occurred in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Oceania and other parts of the world. These cuts illustrate how the geopolitical shock of the Middle East entered the ASEAN supply chain through Thailand's agri-food system and ultimately increased the energy intensity of global food trade. Supply chain response, rerouting goods, increasing storage, and replacing inputs usually increase the transportation distance and energy use per unit of transaction output.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.4 Policy impact: distinguish by layer\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe three interventions correspond to the three levels and suggest that the applicability varies throughout ASEAN.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFirst, ⁠Node target energy transformation (mainly for Thailand). The disconnection between Thailand's food processing node and the volatility of fossil fuels is the most direct way to prevent the spread of energy efficiency loss. The ASEAN Secretariat (2023) supports such initiatives. The policy is designed for Thailand as a central hub, but this concept of identifying and strengthening key nodes can be extended to other ASEAN countries with similar centralized supply chains.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecond,⁠ ⁠the regional strategic buffer zone (applicable to all ASEAN). Sharing fertilizer inventory and regional cold storage networks will stabilize the food processing of the whole region. The ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) called for the strengthening of regional energy connectivity and joint emergency response mechanisms. The policy also applies to all ASEAN members.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird,⁠ ⁠Adaptive trade policies (especially for members who rely on imports). Diversified input procurement and development of alternative processing centers reduce the risk of concentration. Wang and Cheng (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e) show that diversification enhances resilience. ADB (2023) emphasizes proactive supply chain diversification. This policy is most in line with the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Cambodia and other ASEAN economies that depend on imports, while energy-sufficient member countries (Malaysia and Indonesia) may prioritize different measures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTogether, these interventions solve the three-layer transmission mechanism: Thailand's loss of domestic efficiency (policy 1), regional spillover to neighboring economies (policy 2) and global trade disruption (policy 3).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.5 Restrictions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eLimitations include fixed technical coefficients in MRIO, the stylized \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;10% shock magnitude, and the backward‑looking nature of input‑output data. This study has several limitations inherent to the MRIO approach. First, the model assumes fixed technical coefficients, meaning that production technology and trade patterns do not adjust to energy price changes in the short run. Second, the \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;10% shock magnitude is a stylized representation of energy cost increases; actual price effects may vary by fuel type and time horizon. Third, input‑output tables are inherently backward‑looking and may not fully capture forward‑looking adaptive behaviors or structural changes that occur after the reference year.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5.⁠ ⁠Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study demonstrates that the 2026 Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz induced energy price shocks, reducing energy efficiency in Thailand\u0026rsquo;s food sector and generating substantial spillovers across ASEAN and global trade partners. Using the multiplier decomposition framework of Nguyen et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), we show:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDomestic multiplier effects in Thailand decline by 0.0166\u0026nbsp;million USD per 1\u0026nbsp;million USD of final demand.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegional spillovers in Lao PDR and Cambodia decline by 0.0666\u0026nbsp;million USD and 0.0412\u0026nbsp;million USD, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal transmission effects contract export multipliers, with Lao PDR\u0026rsquo;s East Asian exports declining by 0.0073\u0026nbsp;million USD.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe research results prove that the chain reaction triggered by geopolitical energy shocks is important for enhancing energy efficiency at the national, regional, and global levels. A multi-level resilience strategy is more beneficial to ASEAN's sustainable food supply chain.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eLi involves in paper writing and analysis. Yong contributes to idea development, methodology, paper refinement and supervision. Abdul Bahri contributes to paper revision.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFunding Declaration\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study was funded by an International Grant (grant no. IF078-2022) from the Singapore Food Agency.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eACE. (2020). ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020. ASEAN Centre for Energy.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAsian Development Bank. (2023). \u003cem\u003eASEAN and Global Value Chains: Locking in Resilience and Sustainability. Asian Development Bank.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAsian Development Bank. (2024). Key Indicators Database \u0026ndash; Asian Development Bank. https://kidb.adb.org/globalization/current\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations Secretariat. (2023). \u003cem\u003eASEAN Key Figures 2023\u003c/em\u003e. ASEAN Secretariat. https://www.aseanstats.org/publication/akf-2023/\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eInternational Energy Agency. (2026). \u003cem\u003eOil Market Report \u0026ndash; March 2026\u003c/em\u003e. IEA Publications. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eNguyen, D. B., Nong, D. T., Simshauser, P., \u0026amp; Pham, H. (2024). Economic and supply chain impacts from energy price hikes in Southeast Asia. \u003cem\u003eEconomic Analysis and Policy, 84, \u003c/em\u003e929\u0026ndash;940\u003cem\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.025\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eNguyen, Q. T., et al. (2020). Analysis of bilateral input-output trading between Vietnam and China. \u003cem\u003eThe Journal of Asian Finance,\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003eEconomics and Business, 7\u003c/em\u003e(6), 157\u0026ndash;172.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePelletier, N., Audsley, E., Brodt, S., Garnett, T., Henriksson, P., Kendall, A., Kramer, K. J., Murphy, D., Nemecek, T., \u0026amp; Troell, M. (2011). Energy intensity of agriculture and food systems. \u003cem\u003eAnnual Review of Environment and Resources, 36(1),\u003c/em\u003e 223\u0026ndash;246. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-081710-161014\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTaghizadeh-Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E., \u0026amp; Yoshino, N. (2019). Energy and food security: Linkages through price volatility. \u003cem\u003eEnergy Policy, 128,\u003c/em\u003e 796\u0026ndash;806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.043\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eU.S. Energy Information Administration. (2025, June 16). Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint. U.S. Department of Energy. Retrieved April 11, 2026, from https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWang, Y., \u0026amp; Cheng, P. (2025). Supply chain upstream shocks and downstream concentration in the new energy sector: Balancing diversification and centralization. \u003cem\u003eEnergy Economics, 145,\u003c/em\u003e 108510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108510\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWorld Bank Group. (2024). Open Knowledge Repository. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/982e03f5-79ab-4b81-857a-4820f3c4eef7\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy efficiency, Iran conflict, Agri-food supply chains, Input-output analysis, ASEAN, Thailand","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408802/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408802/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Iran, US, and Israel conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted global energy markets, raised energy costs and affecting agricultural supply chains. This study employs a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to simulate a \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;10% efficiency contraction in Thailand\u0026rsquo;s coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel sectors, a proxy for the energy price shock. We quantify the impact on output, value added, employment, and export multipliers across domestic, regional, and global layers. Results show that the domestic output multiplier for Thai food products declines from 3.4456\u0026nbsp;million USD to 3.4290\u0026nbsp;million USD per 1\u0026nbsp;million USD of final demand, indicating lower domestic energy efficiency. Spillovers are largest in Lao PDR and Cambodia, with output multipliers declining by 0.0666 and 0.0412\u0026nbsp;million USD, respectively. Export multipliers to major global markets also contract, with Lao PDR\u0026rsquo;s exports to East Asia declining by 0.0073\u0026nbsp;million USD. These findings reveal a three-tier transmission mechanism: domestic, regional and global, which increases the energy intensity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) entire food supply chain through geopolitical energy shocks. Policy impacts include node target energy transformation, regional strategic buffering and adaptive trade policies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Energy Efficiency Implications of the Iran Conflict on Thailand’s Agri-Food Supply Chains: A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of ASEAN","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-20 07:12:38","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408802/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"cb72e634-fdc9-4872-90aa-1cf5378398ad","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 20th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-20T07:12:51+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-20 07:12:38","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9408802","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9408802","identity":"rs-9408802","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}