Seasonal and inter-seasonal soil moisture controls on coseismic shallow landsliding near the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Seasonal and inter-seasonal soil moisture controls on coseismic shallow landsliding near the Cascadia Subduction Zone | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Seasonal and inter-seasonal soil moisture controls on coseismic shallow landsliding near the Cascadia Subduction Zone Nicolas Mathews, Ben A. Leshchinsky, Michael J. Olsen, Adam M. Booth This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9099855/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract High levels of soil moisture tied to antecedent rainfall may predispose hillslopes to failure during earthquakes, but due to the infrequency of large earthquakes in a single region and lack of associated landslide inventories with well-characterized soil moisture data, characterizing the influence of soil moisture on coseismic shallow landsliding remains challenging. We used RegionGrow3D – a three-dimensional slope stability model that simulates landslide initiation on a regional scale – to simulate coseismic shallow landslides in a region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA, near the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Using this framework, we quantified the influence of seasonally dependent soil moisture, seismic acceleration, and soil shear strength uncertainty on landslide density, landslide scaling relationships, and spatial distributions of yield accelerations. We also demonstrated that, in some cases, seasonality and soil moisture may be a stronger control on coseismic landsliding than peak ground accelerations. Full Text Supplementary Files coseismiclandslidesandsoilmoistureSInathaz.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 11 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9099855","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":617876783,"identity":"45905aed-08f0-47fd-b15a-7c90c7263d90","order_by":0,"name":"Nicolas Mathews","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABD0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACZhDBz8DYwNgAZLARoYOxGURKNjA2NpKmxeAAAyNYC0FgLnb4+eOCisP2xucPtz+cUVMnz8fee/DDBwabfHkH7FosZ6cZNs84czhx243ExsYNxw4btvGcS5acwZBmufEAdi0GtxMMm3nbbieY3QD65QHbgQQ2iRwzZh6GwwaGOJxpcDv9YzPvv9v2xv0HgVr+1SWwyb8xY/6DV0sO0JaG24wbGIAO29jGDLSFxwwY7IcN5HF4H6ilcDbPsf+JM4B+mTmzD+SXHGPJHoM0AwOcWtI3fOapSbPn7z/+4GPPtzp5+fYzhh9+VNgYyONwGC5gAI4pUgGptoyCUTAKRsGwBQBQRWDJ797nCQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4647-4039","institution":"Sitka Sound Science Center","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicolas","middleName":"","lastName":"Mathews","suffix":""},{"id":617876784,"identity":"4a9c449f-dd04-45d0-9a48-484e3ab717af","order_by":1,"name":"Ben A. 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