Navigating Drought: Analyzing Panama Canal Transit Disruptions Using AIS Big Data

Navigating Drought: Analyzing Panama Canal Transit Disruptions Using AIS Big Data | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Navigating Drought: Analyzing Panama Canal Transit Disruptions Using AIS Big Data Cherryl Chico, Zhaowen Wang, Ed Kieran C. Reyes, Mahinthan J. Mariasingham This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4193827/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Aug, 2024 Read the published version in Economics of Disasters and Climate Change → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Panama Canal experienced historically low water levels due to a severe drought in 2023. In response, the Panama Canal Authority has imposed restrictions on daily transits since July 2023, causing significant backlogs of vessels awaiting passage. This study leverages big data from Automatic Identification System (AIS) to comprehen- sively analyze the impact of the drought on transit activities through the Panama Canal. We develops new methods for deriving indicators for passageways, including count of transits, waiting time, count of voyages from top economy pairs visited before and after transit, and count of vessels with rerouted voyages. Statistical analysis is carried out to recognize the evolving trend in the time series to quantify the drought’s impact on transit activities. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s estimator are applied to identify and determine the magnitude of the trend. Furthermore, as a critical conduit connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the Panama Canal holds immense impor- tance in regional and global trade. By utilizing AIS data, this study identifies the top 10 economy pairs that transit through the Panama Canal and investigates the monthly counts of transit activities between these economies during the drought. The number of vessels with rerouted voyages is also computed, shedding light on how the drought in Panama has impacted maritime transportation and the global supply chain. The ongoing water scarcity crisis in Panama serves as a reminder that climate change is fundamentally reshaping economic and trade landscapes, posing a significant threat to future growth and prosperity. Harnessing the potential of AIS data provides a pro- found and immediate understanding of the drought’s impact on the Panama Canal, empowering stakeholders to effectively mitigate economic vulnerabilities and ensure sustainable development amidst evolving climate patterns. AIS data Drought Panama Canal Maritime trade Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Aug, 2024 Read the published version in Economics of Disasters and Climate Change → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 21 May, 2024 Reviews received at journal 21 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 May, 2024 Reviews received at journal 24 Apr, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Apr, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Apr, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 02 Apr, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 02 Apr, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 01 Apr, 2024 First submitted to journal 30 Mar, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4193827","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":287569359,"identity":"abeb0164-dad1-4672-9bf8-53c0feb360ab","order_by":0,"name":"Cherryl Chico","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Asian Development Bank","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Cherryl","middleName":"","lastName":"Chico","suffix":""},{"id":287569361,"identity":"1108b2fc-bf11-4cf3-b39d-f2d9ace56486","order_by":1,"name":"Zhaowen Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABDklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACxj9QxgMQwd7AIE1YSwOUkZDAwMDDc4BkLRIJ+LXIz0h+9vDrDgZ5fun2ZxKJP+zy7CUfP7xdwGCTL++Aw4IZaebGsmcYDGfOOWMmkZCQXMwjnWZsPYMhzXLjAexamKUTzKQl2BgSDG7ksAG1MCf2gER4GA4bGDZg18Imnf4NqiX9GVBLfWKP5PFveLXwSOeYSX5sA2lJADnscGKPBA/EFnkc3peQf1MmzXBGwnDmjBxji4S044k9Z3KKrWcYpBkY4AqxnuPbJH9U2MjzS6Q/vPHBpjqxvf34xtsFFTYG8jgcBg4CHgYJdDGgFQYHcGth/IHdAXhsGQWjYBSMghEFALS+UoyLu/0eAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Asian Development Bank","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhaowen","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":287569362,"identity":"a265d99f-b27c-4869-b97d-350e735e517e","order_by":2,"name":"Ed Kieran C. 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