Conflict and healthcare: Evidence from Gujarat

Conflict and healthcare: Evidence from Gujarat | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Conflict and healthcare: Evidence from Gujarat Shreya Swarnakar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8509279/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Editorial Note Editorial note: The supplementary file containing raw survey data was removed at the authors’ request, as the data are owned by IIPS and are available only upon request from the data owners ( https://iipsindia.ac.in/content/district-level-household-project ). Editorial notes are used to provide important context regarding the topic of a preprint or to alert readers to potential issues concerning that preprint or a downstream publication associated with it. For more information on editorial notes, see our Editorial Policies . Abstract This paper examines whether the 2002 Gujarat riot in India disrupted maternal healthcare utilisation, using data from the 2002–04 District-Level Household Sur- vey (DLHS-2) and a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design around the date of the riot. While the effect is in the negative hypothesised direction, I find no statistically significant effects on institutional delivery, caesarean section rates, post-pregnancy complications, or polio drops given to newborns at birth. Subgroup analysis, how- ever, suggests a decline in hospital deliveries among women aged 30 or younger and among Muslim women statewide. NGO activity and community health net- works may have mitigated the short-run disruptions to maternal healthcare, though this study does not directly test these mechanisms. The results provide actionable lessons for policymakers and development practitioners seeking to protect maternal health in conflict-prone, low-and middle-income settings, emphasizing the value of localized health interventions and institutional preparedness. JEL Code : J16, D74, I11 Health sciences/Health care Health sciences/Medical research Gender Short-term Communal Violence Healthcare Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 23 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 27 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 27 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 20 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 15 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 15 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8509279","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":582080664,"identity":"2db1c625-e179-4d88-b07a-1a175ce3facc","order_by":0,"name":"Shreya Swarnakar","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University College Dublin","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shreya","middleName":"","lastName":"Swarnakar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-03 23:38:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8509279/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8509279/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEditorial note:\u003c/strong\u003e The supplementary file containing raw survey data was removed at the authors’ request, as the data are owned by IIPS and are available only upon request from the data owners (\u003ca href=\"https://iipsindia.ac.in/content/district-level-household-project\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https://iipsindia.ac.in/content/district-level-household-project\"\u003ehttps://iipsindia.ac.in/content/district-level-household-project\u003c/a\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101509404,"identity":"4be748a5-0495-48f1-8c6c-70bd572f2e75","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-30 14:57:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":779401,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ConflictandhealthcareManuscriptwithauthordetailsCopy2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8509279/v1_covered_848c575b-5c84-4826-a5c8-7618de4273ac.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Conflict and healthcare: Evidence from Gujarat","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Gender, Short-term, Communal Violence, Healthcare","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8509279/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8509279/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper examines whether the 2002 Gujarat riot in India disrupted maternal healthcare utilisation, using data from the 2002–04 District-Level Household Sur- vey (DLHS-2) and a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design around the date of the riot. 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