Beyond carbon: LMIC exports embed 27× greater ecological harm than HICs

Beyond carbon: LMIC exports embed 27× greater ecological harm than HICs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Brief Communication Beyond carbon: LMIC exports embed 27× greater ecological harm than HICs Osama Diab This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6997348/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Using environmentally extended multi-regional input-output data, this brief compares the ecological intensity of exports from high-income (HIC) and low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) per €1 million of exports. The results reveal that LMIC exports embed on average 27 times more non-emissions ecological harm per unit value than HIC exports. These findings shed light on the substantial scale of largely overlooked environmental costs in climate and green transition debates, metrics and policies. It highlights the urgent need to tackle an ‘ecological division of labour ’ and expand sustainability metrics beyond current carbon-centric approaches to address a broader range of primarily localized ecological damages associated with global value chains. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental impact Figures Figure 1 Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files BeyondcarbonLMICexportsembed27XXgreaterecologicalharmthanHICsSupplementaryinformation.docx Beyond carbon: LMIC exports embed 27× greater ecological harm than HICs Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6997348","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Brief Communication","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":479961974,"identity":"cc2ead13-988f-4cfd-8425-9c4a832b9dbb","order_by":0,"name":"Osama Diab","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACZh4GCebDDAwFUC6RWtiSGRgMSNDCwCDBY0ycFn7+w083/GCwluGf3fPZmMfAJnHD8d4DzAUVuLVIzkgzu9nDkM4jcefs5mQeg7TEDWfOJTDPOINbi8ENBrMbPAyHeRhu5G4+zGNwOHHmjBwDZt42PFrOH/928w9Qi/yNnMdALf8TZ85/A9TyD4+WAzlmt0G2GNzIYQY67EBivwQPUEsDPr/klN2WMUjnMbxzzNhwjkGycT9PjsHhGcdwa+HnP77t5psKa3u5282PJd5U2Mm2sZ8xfFxQg1sL1Hlo/AOENIyCUTAKRsEowA8AYbNOIe8/W6cAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3650-146X","institution":"KU Leuven","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Osama","middleName":"","lastName":"Diab","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-28 11:05:08","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6997348/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6997348/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88661526,"identity":"65fd6c24-e585-4e02-afb6-b0516c6a3fed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-08 21:15:28","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":24409,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEcological intensity figures (HIC:LMIC ratio)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1EcologicalintensityfiguresHICLMICratio.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6997348/v2/cdba17b72112db0408a16d33.png"},{"id":88661984,"identity":"c043cd6a-fabb-4f85-bcac-fc67ee88bbd9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-08 21:23:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":321042,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"2.MaintextBeyondcarbonLMICexportsembed27morenonemissionsharm.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6997348/v2_covered_9cb162eb-d5fb-4925-a22e-cb968e96bcb0.pdf"},{"id":88661527,"identity":"da712cfc-a52b-4a74-817c-e711a2b4ecf8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-08 21:15:28","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":11070,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Beyond carbon: LMIC exports embed 27\u0026#x00D7; greater ecological harm than HICs","description":"","filename":"BeyondcarbonLMICexportsembed27XXgreaterecologicalharmthanHICsSupplementaryinformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6997348/v2/fa3ee33d38515e380b970670.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"Beyond carbon: LMIC exports embed 27× greater ecological harm than HICs","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6997348/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6997348/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Using environmentally extended multi-regional input-output data, this brief compares the ecological intensity of exports from high-income (HIC) and low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) per €1 million of exports. 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