Effect of Exposure to Conflict and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence on First-Order Marital and Non-marital Adolescent Fertility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Effect of Exposure to Conflict and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence on First-Order Marital and Non-marital Adolescent Fertility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Effect of Exposure to Conflict and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence on First-Order Marital and Non-marital Adolescent Fertility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Guerchom Mugisho This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5433321/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Canadian Studies in Population → Version 1 posted 3 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have resulted in significant conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) against girls under 18. This study examines the impact of conflict and CRSV on first-order marital and non-marital adolescent fertility in the DRC. We utilized data from the 2007 Demographic and Health Surveys, geo-referenced conflict data (UCDP-GED), and CRSV data (GEO-SVAC). Using the Mundlak approach, we first implemented a binary multilevel discrete-time event history model to assess how exposure to conflict and CRSV impacted the timing of first adolescent conception, both marital and non-marital. Second, we treated first marital and premarital conceptions as two competing events. We employed a multinomial multilevel discrete-time event history model to examine the impact of exposure to conflict and CRSV on each type of event. Our findings reveal that (1) exposure to CRSV increased the risk of non-marital adolescent conception; (2) conflict exposure reduced the likelihood of marital adolescent conception; (3) CRSV delayed adolescent conception within marriage. The first two findings align with existing literature, while the third offers new insights into how CRSV may delay the timing of first adolescent pregnancy, including through spousal rejection following extramarital sexual violence and resilience among survivors. These results underscore the need for (1) improved access to contraceptives for girls in conflict zones, (2) strengthened women's empowerment programs, and (3) lasting peace in the DRC to enhance adolescent health outcomes. conflict conflict-related sexual violence adolescent fertility marriage Democratic Republic of the Congo Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Canadian Studies in Population → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 05 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 15 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5433321","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":540606505,"identity":"11e9e02e-c3b4-4673-ab35-a607809e09cd","order_by":0,"name":"Guerchom 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