A novel theoretical model to predict thawing settlement of clayey permafrost

A novel theoretical model to predict thawing settlement of clayey permafrost | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A novel theoretical model to predict thawing settlement of clayey permafrost Haigang Qu, Aiping Tang, Anping Zhao, Dianrui Mu, Zhongyue Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4009761/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As infrastructure construction increases in cold climates, the thermal deformation of frozen soil needs to be taken seriously. In contrast to frost heave, thawing settlement is another type of thermal deformation less attention received in recent years but has yet caused significant harm to early infrastructure like roadways, railways, and pipelines in cold climates. Engineers attempted to foresee the thawing settlement of frozen soil before design, but there was no universally accepted and satisfactory theoretical model for the prediction. Based on the four-phase charting of frozen soil and taking into account the change of frozen soil systems experiencing thawing settlement, an original theoretical model is developed. The derivation offers seven postulates, induces three new factors that describe the thermal-hydraulic- structural characteristics of soil, and attempts to take specimen scale into account. The innovative model adopts initial water content and dry density to forecast the thawing settlement coefficient. Thawing settlement data of clayey permafrost from various regions of Northeast China were substituted for verification. The model demonstrates that in addition to the initial water content and dry density, the unfrozen water content, water holding capacity, and skeletal structure maintenance properties of frozen soil also affect the thawing settlement of frozen clayey permafrost but with different weights. The model also explains some essence of thawing settlement distribution problems. Finally, a happening probability list of various thawing settlement coefficients is provided based on the probability of various combinations of water-holding capacity and skeleton structure. Thawing settlement permafrost frozen soil cold region clayey frozen soil Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4009761","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":277375104,"identity":"19c92504-b328-41f1-ac19-7d36bdd86dc5","order_by":0,"name":"Haigang Qu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNvb+gw8//JCQ42dvAPEP8IBICXxa+HjOJBtL9tgA8QHGBpAWHkJa5CRyzCR42NISDWYkgLUwENTCJpGTJiHBczjBQPL588c8DHdk7BmYD97mYbDLw6mF5/1hiwKLw3nm0jmGzTwMz4AOY0u25mFILsaphT0n8QbQlmLL2TmMQC2HgVp4zKR5GA4kNuDSwpBjAPTL4cQNN48/hGrh/4ZfC0eOEdj7G24wGMJsYcOvBRHIOYYz5xgAtRxmM7acY5CMU4t8Ozwqjz/48KbisD17e/PDG28q7HBqQQMGQMwMY4yCUTAKRsEoIBsAAEH2UQcjMBDaAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Harbin Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haigang","middleName":"","lastName":"Qu","suffix":""},{"id":277375105,"identity":"41345130-f1dc-4bf1-81d3-88a64239a374","order_by":1,"name":"Aiping Tang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Harbin Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aiping","middleName":"","lastName":"Tang","suffix":""},{"id":277375106,"identity":"2fc448f4-6561-4d2c-90e7-99caaa7dbfee","order_by":2,"name":"Anping Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai East Asia Geophysical Prospecting Company","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anping","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":277375107,"identity":"a6c148b5-4942-46b3-9ad5-1bb30ba3e680","order_by":3,"name":"Dianrui Mu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kunming University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dianrui","middleName":"","lastName":"Mu","suffix":""},{"id":277375108,"identity":"2555e58d-df6c-470c-804f-2f1613b0bda4","order_by":4,"name":"Zhongyue Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shenyang Jianzhu University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhongyue","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-03 22:29:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4009761/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4009761/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":60795665,"identity":"c379db41-f175-43d7-a1cb-904d83934934","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-22 07:59:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":957248,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"202402290304text10thversion.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4009761/v1_covered_5ddf7193-9034-4478-9d00-71e0c01474c8.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A novel theoretical model to predict thawing settlement of clayey permafrost","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Thawing settlement, permafrost, frozen soil, cold region, clayey frozen soil","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4009761/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4009761/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs infrastructure construction increases in cold climates, the thermal deformation of frozen soil needs to be taken seriously. In contrast to frost heave, thawing settlement is another type of thermal deformation less attention received in recent years but has yet caused significant harm to early infrastructure like roadways, railways, and pipelines in cold climates. Engineers attempted to foresee the thawing settlement of frozen soil before design, but there was no universally accepted and satisfactory theoretical model for the prediction. Based on the four-phase charting of frozen soil and taking into account the change of frozen soil systems experiencing thawing settlement, an original theoretical model is developed. The derivation offers seven postulates, induces three new factors that describe the thermal-hydraulic- structural characteristics of soil, and attempts to take specimen scale into account. The innovative model adopts initial water content and dry density to forecast the thawing settlement coefficient. 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