Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Train in Summer and Autumn Climate of South-Eastern Europe

Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Train in Summer and Autumn Climate of South-Eastern Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Train in Summer and Autumn Climate of South-Eastern Europe Eung-Sup Kim, Vladimir N. Kryjov, Joong-Bae Ahn, Sera Jo, Jina Hur, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7134650/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Southeastern Europe, particularly the western Dry Land Belt (DLB) of Northern Eurasia, is highly sensitive to hydroclimatic variability due to irregular precipitation and water scarcity. This study investigates the concurrent and lagged effects of the January–March Arctic Oscillation (JFM AO) on precipitation and temperature in this agriculturally critical region. Using 44 years (1979–2022) of monthly data, we performed statistical analyses to assess the links between JFM AO phases and hydroclimate anomalies. Winters of the positive (negative) AO phase are associated with reduced (increased) precipitation, higher (lower) temperatures, reduced (increased) snow cover, and drier (wetter) soil. Interesting is that with no signal in April, these hydroclimatic contrasts re-emerge in summer (May–August), when convective rainfall dominates, and autumn (November). The signal re-emergence contrasts to Northern Europe, where JFM AO lagged influence is confined to spring. We propose a mechanism explaining the wintertime AO influence on summer precipitation in the DLB via soil moisture and feedbacks between water cycle components. Also interesting is that the JFM AO imprints in annual precipitation and temperatures. These findings enhance understanding of JFM AO impact on warm season hydroclimate variability, and have implications for seasonal prediction and drought risk management in Southeastern Europe. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Dry Land Belt of Northern Eurasia Arctic oscillation lagged climate effects water cycle soil moisture memory land-atmospheric feedback statistical analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementaryvf.doc Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7134650","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":495484774,"identity":"ead9ec20-23d5-439e-879b-38cda91debf5","order_by":0,"name":"Eung-Sup Kim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Agricultural Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eung-Sup","middleName":"","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""},{"id":495484775,"identity":"a279df8b-5b6f-4867-bf40-f5f423fc88d8","order_by":1,"name":"Vladimir N. Kryjov","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCSA2YGCwgbDAgIc4LWkkagGCwyRokZx9xqDgY9v5xP7ZzQcfMNTYMBicOYBfizRfjoHhzLbbiTPuHEs2YDiWxmBwtgG/FjkeHgNjnjO3Extu5JhJMDYcZjA4T8BhUC3nEucTrUUarKXiQOIGuBZCDpPsYSswnFGRbLzxRlqyQcKxNB5JQt6XOMO8zeCDgZ3svBvJBx98qLGR4zuTQMBlDBxmwKhkcAS7JoFwrIAA++MHQNKeCJWjYBSMglEwUgEAPXdBNWw3KPUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vladimir","middleName":"N.","lastName":"Kryjov","suffix":""},{"id":495484776,"identity":"2b4fa0dc-7a62-466d-b309-d62f92ab758b","order_by":2,"name":"Joong-Bae Ahn","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joong-Bae","middleName":"","lastName":"Ahn","suffix":""},{"id":495484777,"identity":"aea3340e-79a3-409f-a984-fc7d754b1b36","order_by":3,"name":"Sera Jo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Agricultural Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sera","middleName":"","lastName":"Jo","suffix":""},{"id":495484778,"identity":"f9aac276-bd69-4625-b27d-a194e708f33d","order_by":4,"name":"Jina Hur","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Agricultural Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jina","middleName":"","lastName":"Hur","suffix":""},{"id":495484779,"identity":"0f8675b8-24dd-465c-90be-7b61c8b9f633","order_by":5,"name":"Kyo-Moon Shim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Agricultural Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kyo-Moon","middleName":"","lastName":"Shim","suffix":""},{"id":495484780,"identity":"9b553b12-2b8c-4882-8c6d-7ac5fe96e9d7","order_by":6,"name":"Hyo-Jung Lee","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hyo-Jung","middleName":"","lastName":"Lee","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-16 01:23:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7134650/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7134650/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93656444,"identity":"df53e7ea-f231-49f0-ac13-cd1d77b1e361","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-16 07:08:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1569174,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptvf3.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7134650/v1_covered_6de285dd-ee7d-4c42-9f6e-a377e6d2a1d1.pdf"},{"id":88472176,"identity":"f5800966-38bb-48b0-bd2a-dae1194fcb35","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-06 19:27:39","extension":"doc","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3616256,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"supplementaryvf.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7134650/v1/5cbf0c9495d0bc76478a00a1.doc"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Train in Summer and Autumn Climate of South-Eastern Europe","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Dry Land Belt of Northern Eurasia, Arctic oscillation, lagged climate effects, water cycle, soil moisture memory, land-atmospheric feedback, statistical analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7134650/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7134650/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSoutheastern Europe, particularly the western Dry Land Belt (DLB) of Northern Eurasia, is highly sensitive to hydroclimatic variability due to irregular precipitation and water scarcity. This study investigates the concurrent and lagged effects of the January\u0026ndash;March Arctic Oscillation (JFM AO) on precipitation and temperature in this agriculturally critical region. Using 44 years (1979\u0026ndash;2022) of monthly data, we performed statistical analyses to assess the links between JFM AO phases and hydroclimate anomalies. Winters of the positive (negative) AO phase are associated with reduced (increased) precipitation, higher (lower) temperatures, reduced (increased) snow cover, and drier (wetter) soil. Interesting is that with no signal in April, these hydroclimatic contrasts re-emerge in summer (May\u0026ndash;August), when convective rainfall dominates, and autumn (November). The signal re-emergence contrasts to Northern Europe, where JFM AO lagged influence is confined to spring. We propose a mechanism explaining the wintertime AO influence on summer precipitation in the DLB via soil moisture and feedbacks between water cycle components. Also interesting is that the JFM AO imprints in annual precipitation and temperatures. These findings enhance understanding of JFM AO impact on warm season hydroclimate variability, and have implications for seasonal prediction and drought risk management in Southeastern Europe.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Train in Summer and Autumn Climate of South-Eastern Europe","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-06 19:11:34","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7134650/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8fc2ff6a-1199-4f3c-83b0-166515305339","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 6th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":52620636,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":52620637,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-16T07:08:17+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-06 19:11:34","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7134650","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7134650","identity":"rs-7134650","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}