Air pollution and mortality in Portugal: AirQ+ analysis and COVID-19 impact

Air pollution and mortality in Portugal: AirQ+ analysis and COVID-19 impact | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Air pollution and mortality in Portugal: AirQ+ analysis and COVID-19 impact João Simões, Alexandra Bernardo, Luísa Gonçalves, José Brito This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4712646/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study uses the World Health Organization's AirQ + model to assess the relationship between air pollution and mortality in Portugal from 2010 to 2021, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. By integrating AirQ + with Linear Mixed Models, we analyzed long-term air pollution data and its health effects. Results indicate a significant decrease in \(\:{\text{N}\text{O}}_{2}\) and \(\:{\text{P}\text{M}}_{2.5}\) concentrations from 2017–2019 to 2020–2021 due to COVID-19 restrictions and reduced transportation emissions. Conversely, \(\:{\text{O}}_{3}\) exposure slightly increased. The model estimates over 5,000 annual deaths from \(\:{\text{N}\text{O}}_{2}\) and \(\:{\text{P}\text{M}}_{2.5}\) exposure and over 139 annual deaths from \(\:{\text{O}}_{3}\) -related respiratory diseases for 2010–2021. Despite limitations like the need for better assessment of pollutant mixtures and climatic variables, the study shows a decrease in \(\:{\text{N}\text{O}}_{2}\) -related disease burden during the pandemic. These trends reflect anomalies in mortality and pollution data rather than policy improvements. The study underscores the utility of AirQ + in guiding public health strategies and tracking progress towards the 2030 Agenda, offering insights into reducing mortality and morbidity through decreased air pollutant exposure and highlighting the need for sustained, multi-dimensional pollution reduction efforts. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Health sciences/Risk factors Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Statistics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files JS2024AirpollutionandmortalityinPortugalAirQanalysisandCOVID19impactSupplementarymaterials.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 25 Nov, 2024 Reviews received at journal 12 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Sep, 2024 Reviews received at journal 23 Aug, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Aug, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Aug, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 08 Aug, 2024 Editor invited by journal 23 Jul, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 22 Jul, 2024 First submitted to journal 09 Jul, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4712646","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":340713989,"identity":"a16e902b-a01c-4525-8f92-78a9540da601","order_by":0,"name":"João 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By integrating AirQ\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;with Linear Mixed Models, we analyzed long-term air pollution data and its health effects. Results indicate a significant decrease in \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{N}\\text{O}}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{P}\\text{M}}_{2.5}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e concentrations from 2017\u0026ndash;2019 to 2020\u0026ndash;2021 due to COVID-19 restrictions and reduced transportation emissions. Conversely, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{O}}_{3}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e exposure slightly increased. The model estimates over 5,000 annual deaths from \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{N}\\text{O}}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{P}\\text{M}}_{2.5}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e exposure and over 139 annual deaths from \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{O}}_{3}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e-related respiratory diseases for 2010\u0026ndash;2021. Despite limitations like the need for better assessment of pollutant mixtures and climatic variables, the study shows a decrease in \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\text{N}\\text{O}}_{2}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e-related disease burden during the pandemic. These trends reflect anomalies in mortality and pollution data rather than policy improvements. The study underscores the utility of AirQ\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;in guiding public health strategies and tracking progress towards the 2030 Agenda, offering insights into reducing mortality and morbidity through decreased air pollutant exposure and highlighting the need for sustained, multi-dimensional pollution reduction efforts.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Air pollution and mortality in Portugal: AirQ+ analysis and COVID-19 impact","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-16 18:47:30","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4712646/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-11-25T09:38:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-11-12T22:53:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"29730494093783191021314415673443692386","date":"2024-11-05T15:27:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"300691527913552425254707006936003617050","date":"2024-09-04T05:23:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-08-23T22:17:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"139720903345879689703540709011468712476","date":"2024-08-11T14:45:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-08-08T06:51:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-08-08T06:43:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2024-07-23T10:53:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-07-22T16:48:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2024-07-09T14:04:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3c5b8935-d922-4dae-93cf-1fb3772e3016","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 16th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":36099138,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science"},{"id":36099139,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"},{"id":36099140,"name":"Health sciences/Risk factors"},{"id":36099141,"name":"Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Statistics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-04-21T16:01:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4712646","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-97704-x","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2025-04-15 15:57:51","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 15th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-16 18:47:30","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-025-97704-x","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-97704-x","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4712646","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4712646","identity":"rs-4712646","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}