Conflict-induced disruptions create a new regime of food price dynamics in the Gaza Strip

Conflict-induced disruptions create a new regime of food price dynamics in the Gaza Strip | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Conflict-induced disruptions create a new regime of food price dynamics in the Gaza Strip Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Rotem Zelingher This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6710106/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Accurate monitoring and forecasting of food prices is vital for anticipating humanitarian crises and informing policy responses. We investigate the effects of the war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, on the price dynamics of nine staple food commodities in the region. We combine time-series modeling and forecasting techniques to compare prewar trends with observed wartime deviations. We show that locally produced commodities, particularly chicken meat and olive oil, experienced the most extreme price shocks. These results reveal a marked departure from prior patterns of weak inter-commodity correlation and seasonal regularity, indicating a systemic shift in market dynamics. The findings suggest that conflict-induced disruptions created a new price regime, unanticipated by models trained on prewar data. In a broader context, this study underscores the critical role of structural resilience and infrastructure stability in mitigating food price volatility during crises. Social science/Economics Scientific community and society/Agriculture Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6710106","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":459804590,"identity":"01c8f383-247e-4358-8939-9559885b9c2a","order_by":0,"name":"Jesús Crespo Cuaresma","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYILUe6FmOYgATRWhMbiNbC3H724cOfO2zSN9xIYPzwg8GujrDDetKNjXnPpOUCtTBL9jAkE7aFcQYbmzRj2+HcbTcSGKSBthKlhf3nz7bD6WZAW34zMNQTZwsDb9vhBKAWNqAth4nQ0pPGLA30i+H+Mw/bLHsMjks2ENJi2H6M8SMwxOQl25MP3/hRUc1P0BZDkKGQ+ASRBgQ1MDDIwxSPglEwCkbBKMAJAFnsNnqiLg0TAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-6560","institution":"Vienna University of Economics and Business","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jesús","middleName":"Crespo","lastName":"Cuaresma","suffix":""},{"id":459804591,"identity":"503970e4-c4a0-4c57-95ed-779f0da6e478","order_by":1,"name":"Rotem Zelingher","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Vienna University of Economics and Business","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rotem","middleName":"","lastName":"Zelingher","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-20 17:45:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6710106/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6710106/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86047797,"identity":"5cd1933d-438e-4d65-b1c6-1b29132fa0d6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-04 22:38:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":645383,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"NatureFoodPaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6710106/v1_covered_66fe7a3d-9325-40e9-acb5-92fab56cd0d9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Conflict-induced disruptions create a new regime of food price dynamics in the Gaza Strip","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6710106/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6710106/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Accurate monitoring and forecasting of food prices is vital for anticipating humanitarian crises and informing policy responses. We investigate the effects of the war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, on the price dynamics of nine staple food commodities in the region. We combine time-series modeling and forecasting techniques to compare prewar trends with observed wartime deviations. We show that locally produced commodities, particularly chicken meat and olive oil, experienced the most extreme price shocks. These results reveal a marked departure from prior patterns of weak inter-commodity correlation and seasonal regularity, indicating a systemic shift in market dynamics. The findings suggest that conflict-induced disruptions created a new price regime, unanticipated by models trained on prewar data. In a broader context, this study underscores the critical role of structural resilience and infrastructure stability in mitigating food price volatility during crises.","manuscriptTitle":"Conflict-induced disruptions create a new regime of food price dynamics in the Gaza Strip","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-30 08:16:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6710106/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c6a1a387-8298-49ff-bb35-eee63d15bba4","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":48843439,"name":"Social science/Economics"},{"id":48843440,"name":"Scientific community and society/Agriculture"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-13T07:08:48+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-30 08:16:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6710106","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6710106","identity":"rs-6710106","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}