Lightning, Minerals, and the Iron Bottleneck: A Probabilistic Geochemical Framework for Early Abiogenesis Environments V8

Lightning, Minerals, and the Iron Bottleneck: A Probabilistic Geochemical Framework for Early Abiogenesis Environments V8 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Lightning, Minerals, and the Iron Bottleneck: A Probabilistic Geochemical Framework for Early Abiogenesis Environments V8 Iñaki Del Amo Castillo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8579406/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding how life emerged from non-living chemistry remains one of the central challenges in science. This study develops a probabilistic and geochemical framework to quantify the likelihood of abiogenesis under early Earth conditions, explicitly linking environmental opportunity with chemical feasibility. Multiple environments have been proposed as plausible settings for abiogenesis, including oceans, hydrothermal systems, and surface environments. Each offers distinct advantages but also faces constraints related to concentration, energy availability, and reaction stability. Rather than favoring a single exclusive scenario, we introduce a quantitative approach that enables comparative evaluation across different prebiotic environments. Within this framework, shallow, mineral-rich surface ponds are examined as environments in which episodic wet--dry cycling, evaporative concentration, mineral catalysis, and localized energy inputs could coincide spatially and temporally. Ultraviolet radiation and lightning provide complementary energy sources, while mineral surfaces such as clays and iron sulfides enhance molecular stability and reactivity. The probability of abiogenesis is expressed as a function of environmental opportunity, parameterized by the number of active environments, their persistence timescales, and the frequency of productive chemical events (formalized in Appendix~A). Under conservative assumptions, the resulting probabilities are non-negligible, indicating that life’s emergence on early Earth was plausible but not inevitable. Comparative estimates suggest that surface ponds and, secondarily, the oceanic surface microlayer provide favorable conditions relative to more dilute or continuously aqueous environments. By quantitatively linking prebiotic chemistry, mineral evolution, and planetary energy fluxes, this framework constrains the emergence of life to realistic Archean conditions and offers testable guidance for astrobiology. Transient aqueous niches characterized by mineral diversity and cyclic energy inputs emerge as promising targets in the search for life beyond Earth. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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