Can industrial overcapacity enable seasonal flexibility in electricity use? A case study of aluminum smelting in China

Can industrial overcapacity enable seasonal flexibility in electricity use? A case study of aluminum smelting in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Can industrial overcapacity enable seasonal flexibility in electricity use? A case study of aluminum smelting in China Jesse Jenkins, Ruike Lyu, Anna Li, Jianxiao Wang, Hongxi Luo, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8167813/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In many countries, declining demand in energy-intensive industries (EIIs) such as cement, steel, and aluminum is leading to industrial overcapacity. Although industrial overcapacity is traditionally envisioned as problematic and resource-wasteful, it could unlock EIIs’ flexibility in electricity use. Here, using China’s aluminum smelting industry as a case, we evaluate the system-level cost-benefit of retaining EII overcapacity for flexible electricity use in decarbonized energy systems. We find that overcapacity can enable aluminum smelters to adopt a seasonal operation paradigm, ceasing production during winter load peaks exacerbated by heating electrification and renewable seasonality. In the 2050-net-zero scenario, the seasonal operation paradigm can reduce China’s electricity system investment and operational costs by 15-72 billion CNY/year (or 8-34% of the aluminum smelting industry’s product value), sufficient to offset the costs of maintaining overcapacity and product storage. It also reduces workforce fluctuations across the aluminum smelting and thermal power generation sectors by up to 62%, potentially mitigating socio-economic disruptions from industrial restructuring and energy transition. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy and behaviour Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand Full Text Additional Declarations Yes there is potential Competing Interest. J.D.J. is a recipient of research funding from Fervo Energy, a developer of enhanced geothermal energy systems. J.D.J. is part owner of DeSolve, LLC, which provides techno-economic analysis and decision support for clean energy technology ventures and investors. A list of clients can be found at https://www.linkedin.com/in/jessedjenkins . He serves on the advisory boards of Eavor Technologies Inc., a closed-loop geothermal technology company; Rondo Energy, a provider of high-temperature thermal energy storage and industrial decarbonization solutions; and Dig Energy, a developer of low-cost drilling solutions for ground-source heat pumps and has an equity interest in each company. He also serves as a technical advisor to MUUS Climate Partners and Energy Impact Partners, both investors in early-stage climate technology companies. Supplementary Files SI.pdf supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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