Satellite Observations of Water Origins Reveal New Dimensions of Hydroclimate Vulnerability of Global Croplands

Satellite Observations of Water Origins Reveal New Dimensions of Hydroclimate Vulnerability of Global Croplands | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Satellite Observations of Water Origins Reveal New Dimensions of Hydroclimate Vulnerability of Global Croplands Yan Jiang, Jennifer Burney This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4366139/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Food security depends on water availability; understanding the sources of atmospheric moisture for different crop producing regions is thus critical. Here, using Earth observations and physical and statistical models over the period 2003-2019, we explore the extent to which atmospheric moisture for the world’s major crops originates from oceans versus land. By integrating precipitation isotope observations and two satellite-derived atmospheric water isotope products, we find that the percentage of crop water originating from land varies from ~25% to 75% over the year, with strong variation over crop growing seasons and crop phenological stages. Although patterns vary by region, ocean-originating moisture tends to provide most precipitation during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the main crop growing season. Linking source and water supply information shows that crop water stress becomes more likely later during the reproductive period, due to continuous and increasing soil moisture depletion, and this phenomenon is much stronger for croplands dependent on land-originating moisture. This stress is highly associated with crop productivity as measured by greenness (NIRv): we find that croplands with ≥40% of moisture derived from land are more susceptible to water stress than those with <40%. Importantly, when disaggregated by crop type, we find that over 40% of the world’s maize and over 50% of the world’s wheat receive more than 40% of their moisture from land during the critical reproductive stage. For these areas, simple hydrological metrics -- integrated rainwater supply and root-zone soil moisture -- explain up to 60% of inter-annual variability in crop greenness. These results thus provide valuable insights for understanding dimensions of the vulnerability of global crop production and potential adaptation responses, including protection of local land moisture sources, selection of suitable crops, and design of smart irrigation strategies at sub-seasonal scales. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecophysiology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Stable isotope analysis Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.docx Supplementray information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4366139","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":302338784,"identity":"18d796b2-4a9c-4dc7-8dd3-e6e2d2b1c3f6","order_by":0,"name":"Yan Jiang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHCChAOJ/2xADAMGBjbitCQ++MCWRpoWZsMZbIdJ0GJw/MAzaR6e84n9/Yc3MHwoO0yEljMJadI8ErcTZ9xIK2CccY4YLQdAWgxuJ26Q4DFg5m0jRsv5B0AtCecSN/CfMWD+S5SWGwnJhjMOHEjcwJBjwMxIjBbJGw8SH3xsSDYG+eVgz7l0wlr4zucAo7LBThYYYhsf/CizJqxF4QBPApxzgLB6IJBvYCdO4SgYBaNgFIxgAABITEK9kGMtpAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-2288","institution":"University of California, San Diego","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yan","middleName":"","lastName":"Jiang","suffix":""},{"id":302338785,"identity":"0594dc00-d147-4f9e-a57d-350dc8012178","order_by":1,"name":"Jennifer Burney","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3532-2934","institution":"University of California, San Diego","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jennifer","middleName":"","lastName":"Burney","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-03 23:25:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4366139/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4366139/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":57465419,"identity":"11938303-8cd3-46ea-bed4-4c4aa5d98723","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-31 04:24:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1466592,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"mainmanu.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4366139/v1_covered_96105835-07b7-4643-b703-b624cca49967.pdf"},{"id":57465035,"identity":"41b8565d-52f8-4f57-90d4-1f62fc6dc8cd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-31 04:16:45","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5876367,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementray information","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryinformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4366139/v1/076ccb3048572ebf7a57bc2e.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Satellite Observations of Water Origins Reveal New Dimensions of Hydroclimate Vulnerability of Global Croplands","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4366139/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4366139/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Food security depends on water availability; understanding the sources of atmospheric moisture for different crop producing regions is thus critical. Here, using Earth observations and physical and statistical models over the period 2003-2019, we explore the extent to which atmospheric moisture for the world’s major crops originates from oceans versus land. By integrating precipitation isotope observations and two satellite-derived atmospheric water isotope products, we find that the percentage of crop water originating from land varies from ~25% to 75% over the year, with strong variation over crop growing seasons and crop phenological stages. Although patterns vary by region, ocean-originating moisture tends to provide most precipitation during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the main crop growing season. Linking source and water supply information shows that crop water stress becomes more likely later during the reproductive period, due to continuous and increasing soil moisture depletion, and this phenomenon is much stronger for croplands dependent on land-originating moisture. 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