Burdens of Pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050 in China: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Burdens of Pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050 in China: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Burdens of Pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050 in China: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study Feng Yang, Jingyuan Bian, Xuxu He, Dong Xu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7925055/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Pancreatic cancer in China exhibits high incidence and mortality rates, imposing a significant disease burden. It is essential to clarify the trends in pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends up to 2050, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies. Objective Utilizing the latest data from GBD 2021, this study assessed and analyzed the distribution and patterns of the pancreatic cancer disease burden across different age groups and genders in China, along with projections for the next 30 years. Results In 2021, the number of incident cases, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) showed an increasing trend, reaching 118,665.43 (94,622.75–144,663.08), 119,601.86 (95,653.59–145,218.13), and 2,930,317.01 (2,301,048.70-3,575,078.95) person-years, respectively. Over the 30-year period, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for incidence, deaths, and DALYs were 3.13 (3.08–3.18), 3.06 (2.79–3.33), and 2.53 (2.31–2.75), respectively. The Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized DALY Rate were 5.64 (4.52–6.84), 5.72 (4.59–6.91), and 137.23 (108.15-166.74), respectively. However, from 1990 to 2021, the global average age-standardized incidence, death, and DALY rates increased by 2.14 (1.27–3.19), 2.08 (1.22–3.10), and 1.62 (0.87–2.52), respectively. Analysis of risk factors for pancreatic cancer revealed that from 1990 to 2021, high fasting plasma glucose surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor, with high body-mass index ranking third. Gender-specific analysis showed that incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were higher in males than females. Projections indicate an upward trend in the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of pancreatic cancer in China over the next 30 years. Conclusion This study comprehensively compares differences in the disease burden across populations and over time, providing further evidence for the development of pancreatic cancer prevention and control policies and etiological research. Pancreatic cancer Age Risk factor Gender Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 25 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Nov, 2025 Editor invited by journal 25 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 22 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 22 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 22 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7925055","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":549338422,"identity":"75f542de-f4d7-421e-b19f-8bc261895835","order_by":0,"name":"Feng Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingpu Branch of Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Feng","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":549338424,"identity":"0e29c62c-c57a-49b9-87f5-02c39570323d","order_by":1,"name":"Jingyuan Bian","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingpu Branch of Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan 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Study","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-cancer","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"bcan","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Cancer](http://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/bcan/default.aspx","title":"BMC Cancer","twitterHandle":"BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Pancreatic cancer, Age, Risk factor, Gender","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7925055/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7925055/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003ePancreatic cancer in China exhibits high incidence and mortality rates, imposing a significant disease burden. It is essential to clarify the trends in pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends up to 2050, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eObjective\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eUtilizing the latest data from GBD 2021, this study assessed and analyzed the distribution and patterns of the pancreatic cancer disease burden across different age groups and genders in China, along with projections for the next 30 years.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn 2021, the number of incident cases, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) showed an increasing trend, reaching 118,665.43 (94,622.75\u0026ndash;144,663.08), 119,601.86 (95,653.59\u0026ndash;145,218.13), and 2,930,317.01 (2,301,048.70-3,575,078.95) person-years, respectively. Over the 30-year period, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for incidence, deaths, and DALYs were 3.13 (3.08\u0026ndash;3.18), 3.06 (2.79\u0026ndash;3.33), and 2.53 (2.31\u0026ndash;2.75), respectively. The Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized DALY Rate were 5.64 (4.52\u0026ndash;6.84), 5.72 (4.59\u0026ndash;6.91), and 137.23 (108.15-166.74), respectively. However, from 1990 to 2021, the global average age-standardized incidence, death, and DALY rates increased by 2.14 (1.27\u0026ndash;3.19), 2.08 (1.22\u0026ndash;3.10), and 1.62 (0.87\u0026ndash;2.52), respectively. Analysis of risk factors for pancreatic cancer revealed that from 1990 to 2021, high fasting plasma glucose surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor, with high body-mass index ranking third. Gender-specific analysis showed that incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were higher in males than females. Projections indicate an upward trend in the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of pancreatic cancer in China over the next 30 years.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis study comprehensively compares differences in the disease burden across populations and over time, providing further evidence for the development of pancreatic cancer prevention and control policies and etiological research.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Burdens of Pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050 in China: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-24 12:14:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7925055/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-11-30T06:37:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-25T05:03:04+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-17T19:59:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"140591725986962260944262186599894288496","date":"2025-11-17T19:47:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-14T17:42:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"95502310244025344676683354305297194745","date":"2025-11-14T07:42:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"54223524010630273782458363425800073448","date":"2025-11-13T19:12:17+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"217363349214098634921482698427570379606","date":"2025-11-13T11:11:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"330215620431378278977019031982424221282","date":"2025-11-13T09:36:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-13T08:43:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-25T10:16:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-23T03:58:34+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-23T03:57:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"BMC Cancer","date":"2025-10-22T15:19:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-cancer","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"bcan","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Cancer](http://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/bcan/default.aspx","title":"BMC Cancer","twitterHandle":"BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1b32f802-f1cb-4939-98e8-6ef053f43fd3","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-16T05:38:17+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-24 12:14:53","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7925055","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7925055","identity":"rs-7925055","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}