Re-evaluating the Effects of Agricultural Production Intensification on Carbon Emissions :The Role of Technological Innovation

Re-evaluating the Effects of Agricultural Production Intensification on Carbon Emissions :The Role of Technological Innovation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Re-evaluating the Effects of Agricultural Production Intensification on Carbon Emissions :The Role of Technological Innovation Dandan Zhao, Jiacheng Liu, Yiyan Zhao, Qiufen Zheng, Jiyuan Zheng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7045716/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract China’s agricultural transition toward low-carbon, high-quality development necessitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines how agricultural production intensification (API) affects carbon emissions, incorporating technological innovation as a mediator. Using 2014–2023 panel data, fixed-effects, mediation, and threshold models reveal: (1) API significantly reduces emissions, validated by robustness tests. (2) Heterogeneity tests show a U-shaped relationship in major grain-producing regions but no significant effect elsewhere. (3) Technological innovation partially mediates API’s emission-reducing effect. (4) Threshold tests indicate nonlinear impacts: API suppresses emissions above a threshold of 0.60, but this weakens beyond 0.95. intensive production carbon emissions technological innovation agriculture carbon sink carbon emission effect threshold effect Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7045716","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":491593620,"identity":"b6e93bf3-83eb-4ac1-ab37-bf748b7c67d4","order_by":0,"name":"Dandan Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jinling Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dandan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":491593621,"identity":"23792ae8-3ba5-46c8-a105-532edd5fc839","order_by":1,"name":"Jiacheng Liu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPmYGBgMGBgkGfmbmww+I0sIG0yLZzpZmQJwWGMPgPI+CBHFa2HkMCn62WeQZH+YBWldjE02Ew3gMDHvbJIrNDvMeeMBwLC23gRgtxgxnJBK3HeZLMGBsOEyCls3NPAYSJGipkEjcwEy8FrYCw54KiWKJw8BATiDGL/z8h7cZ/DCoy+PvP3z4wYcaG8JaQBaBYjABzEwgQjkIMD8gQfEoGAWjYBSMRAAAleUy2P6YL48AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing University of Finance and Economics","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiacheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":491593622,"identity":"994c982c-1ca8-4fc0-8e79-fca4e4e784db","order_by":2,"name":"Yiyan Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zhengzhou University of Light Industry","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yiyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":491593623,"identity":"f4f033e0-0603-4026-9a36-a1667b7a1fcb","order_by":3,"name":"Qiufen Zheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing Xiaozhuang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qiufen","middleName":"","lastName":"Zheng","suffix":""},{"id":491593624,"identity":"d676ccf4-8147-4903-b0d7-700871674d40","order_by":4,"name":"Jiyuan Zheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bengbu University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiyuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zheng","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-04 10:23:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7045716/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7045716/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102934569,"identity":"9fe8e9f1-055f-44a5-8935-1334ea2de0fb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-18 15:54:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":505057,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Reevaluating1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7045716/v1_covered_1cb0c165-7162-42fc-975a-6b074dff57b4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Re-evaluating the Effects of Agricultural Production Intensification on Carbon Emissions :The Role of Technological Innovation","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"intensive production, carbon emissions, technological innovation, agriculture carbon sink, carbon emission effect, threshold effect","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7045716/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7045716/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eChina\u0026rsquo;s agricultural transition toward low-carbon, high-quality development necessitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines how agricultural production intensification (API) affects carbon emissions, incorporating technological innovation as a mediator. Using 2014\u0026ndash;2023 panel data, fixed-effects, mediation, and threshold models reveal: (1) API significantly reduces emissions, validated by robustness tests. (2) Heterogeneity tests show a U-shaped relationship in major grain-producing regions but no significant effect elsewhere. (3) Technological innovation partially mediates API\u0026rsquo;s emission-reducing effect. 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