Insights for Nature-based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Insights for Nature-based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Insights for Nature-based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability Bailey Murphy, Christine Rollinson, Michael Dietze, Christina Staudhammer, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4713512/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Successful implementation of forest management as a Nature-based Climate Solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multi-decadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecological modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Forest ecology Forest management climate resilience ecosystem stability demographic modeling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files MurphyNCCsubmittedJuly2024SI.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4713512","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":326094677,"identity":"a5721384-d647-4235-a931-eb3612265e2c","order_by":0,"name":"Bailey 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As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change,\r\nmuch remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how\r\ninteractions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across\r\nspatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multi-decadal\r\nprojections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations\r\nwere conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under\r\ntwo alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the\r\nquantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management\r\nin modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and\r\ntemporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. 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