Mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction by Palaeolithic humans on Cyprus

Mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction by Palaeolithic humans on Cyprus | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction by Palaeolithic humans on Cyprus Corey Bradshaw, Frederik Saltre, Stefani Crabtree, Christian Reepmeyer, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3889827/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 17 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The hypothesised main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor-Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~ 14.2 ka–13.2 ka), small area (~ 11,000 km 2 ), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus ( Phanourios minor ) and dwarf elephants ( Palaeoloxodon cypriotes ). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes ( N = 3,000–7,000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1,000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor-Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record ( Phanourios at ~ 12 ka–11.1 ka, followed by Palaeoloxodon at ~ 10.3 ka–9.1 ka). Biological sciences/Ecology/Palaeoecology Biological sciences/Ecology/Population dynamics Social science/Anthropology/Archaeology Social science/Anthropology/Biological anthropology carrying capacity cohort models dwarf elephant dwarf hippopotamus human expansion hunter-gatherers mammals Mediterranean offtake pre-agropastoralist Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files BradshawCyprusmegafaunaSI.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 17 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3889827","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":268758553,"identity":"dcbf5e40-f6f0-4d7c-8d96-b709df3b20ac","order_by":0,"name":"Corey 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mammals, Mediterranean, offtake, pre-agropastoralist","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3889827/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3889827/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The hypothesised main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor-Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~ 14.2 ka–13.2 ka), small area (~ 11,000 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus (\u003ci\u003ePhanourios minor\u003c/i\u003e) and dwarf elephants (\u003ci\u003ePalaeoloxodon cypriotes\u003c/i\u003e). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes (\u003ci\u003eN\u003c/i\u003e = 3,000–7,000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within \u003c 1,000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor-Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record (\u003ci\u003ePhanourios\u003c/i\u003e at ~ 12 ka–11.1 ka, followed by \u003ci\u003ePalaeoloxodon\u003c/i\u003e at ~ 10.3 ka–9.1 ka).","manuscriptTitle":"Mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction by Palaeolithic humans on Cyprus","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-01-24 04:38:00","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3889827/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1cd9db46-0382-45ec-ab46-18cd8e0dadc3","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 24th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":28311976,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Palaeoecology"},{"id":28311977,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Population dynamics"},{"id":28311978,"name":"Social science/Anthropology/Archaeology"},{"id":28311979,"name":"Social science/Anthropology/Biological anthropology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-09-24T18:39:59+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-3889827","link":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.0967","journal":{"identity":"proceedings-of-the-royal-society-b-biological-sciences","isVorOnly":true,"title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"},"publishedOn":"2024-09-18 00:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"September 18th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-01-24 04:38:00","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1098/rspb.2024.0967","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.0967","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-3889827","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-3889827","identity":"rs-3889827","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}