Global, regional, and national burden of particulate matter pollution (1990–2021) and projections to 2042: A comprehensive analysis for the Global Burden of Disease database

Global, regional, and national burden of particulate matter pollution (1990–2021) and projections to 2042: A comprehensive analysis for the Global Burden of Disease database | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global, regional, and national burden of particulate matter pollution (1990–2021) and projections to 2042: A comprehensive analysis for the Global Burden of Disease database Zhao Wang, Feng Shao, Yungang Sun, Li Wei, Xing Gong, Yi Zhang, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7087796/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Particulate matter pollution (PMP) is one of the leading risk factors of human health worldwide, contributing significantly increase in the prevalence and development of various diseases. Existing studies have some limitations, including the paucity of data and the absence of a focus. A comprehensive analysis is necessary to address this issue. Methods This paper utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to provide a comprehensive description of the burdens attributed to PMP from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, it forecasts the PMP burden to the year 2042. The study employed an array of analytical techniques to examine the temporal, spatial, and demographic patterns. The aforementioned techniques include joinpoint regression analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, Spearman correlation analysis, frontier analysis, health inequality analysis, decomposition analysis, and forecast analysis. Results From 1990 to 2021, a decline of 63.40% and 62.48%, respectively, in global age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates was observed. In 2042, the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate will decline to 38.40 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 23.62 to 53.17) and 1033.05 (95% CI: 673.13 to 1392.97) per 100,000 population, respectively. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates exhibited a significant negative correlation with socio-demographic index (SDI), with a p-value of less than 0.001, respectively. Health inequality analysis demonstrated that both absolute inequality and relative inequality decreased from 1990 to 2021. The decomposition of trends and drivers behind changes in the PMP-attributable burden demonstrated that declines in exposures were counteracted by population growth in most regions of the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusions The study showed that regions with a low SDI have a notably high prevalence of health challenges. It emphasizes systemic barriers to PMP mitigation in low-SDI areas and advocates for targeted interventions, such as clean energy subsidies in Africa, as well as regional policy coordination and integration with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in order to achieve health equity. Global Burden of Disease Particulate matter Mortality Disability-adjusted life years Temporal Social-demographic index Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Table.xlsx TableS2.xlsx TableS2.xlsx TableS3.xlsx TableS4.xlsx TableS6.xlsx TableS5.xlsx TableS1.xlsx TableS11.xlsx TableS10.xlsx TableS8.xlsx TableS9.xlsx TableS7.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 11 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Aug, 2025 Editor invited by journal 10 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 09 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7087796","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":498537204,"identity":"bcedaa1e-e0b5-4389-842a-0e4612931ea9","order_by":0,"name":"Zhao Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing Chest Hospital","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhao","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":498537208,"identity":"f6731b93-8c82-4323-a980-8c9ff681cdd4","order_by":1,"name":"Feng Shao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing Chest 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database","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-public-health","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"pubh","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Public Health](http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/pubh/default.aspx","title":"BMC Public Health","twitterHandle":"@BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Global Burden of Disease, Particulate matter, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years, Temporal, Social-demographic index","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7087796/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7087796/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eParticulate matter pollution (PMP) is one of the leading risk factors of human health worldwide, contributing significantly increase in the prevalence and development of various diseases. Existing studies have some limitations, including the paucity of data and the absence of a focus. A comprehensive analysis is necessary to address this issue.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis paper utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to provide a comprehensive description of the burdens attributed to PMP from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, it forecasts the PMP burden to the year 2042. The study employed an array of analytical techniques to examine the temporal, spatial, and demographic patterns. The aforementioned techniques include joinpoint regression analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, Spearman correlation analysis, frontier analysis, health inequality analysis, decomposition analysis, and forecast analysis.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eFrom 1990 to 2021, a decline of 63.40% and 62.48%, respectively, in global age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates was observed. In 2042, the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate will decline to 38.40 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 23.62 to 53.17) and 1033.05 (95% CI: 673.13 to 1392.97) per 100,000 population, respectively. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates exhibited a significant negative correlation with socio-demographic index (SDI), with a p-value of less than 0.001, respectively. Health inequality analysis demonstrated that both absolute inequality and relative inequality decreased from 1990 to 2021. The decomposition of trends and drivers behind changes in the PMP-attributable burden demonstrated that declines in exposures were counteracted by population growth in most regions of the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe study showed that regions with a low SDI have a notably high prevalence of health challenges. It emphasizes systemic barriers to PMP mitigation in low-SDI areas and advocates for targeted interventions, such as clean energy subsidies in Africa, as well as regional policy coordination and integration with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in order to achieve health equity.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global, regional, and national burden of particulate matter pollution (1990–2021) and projections to 2042: A comprehensive analysis for the Global Burden of Disease database","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-13 09:46:25","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7087796/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"72183622310243916499383504092112649277","date":"2025-08-25T06:08:28+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-08-11T06:13:30+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"19938455740509772335101566746056987362","date":"2025-08-08T15:17:19+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-08-08T11:43:32+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-07-10T12:59:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-10T12:17:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-07-10T12:16:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"BMC Public Health","date":"2025-07-10T00:40:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-public-health","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"pubh","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Public Health](http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/pubh/default.aspx","title":"BMC Public Health","twitterHandle":"@BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fef8b657-ec4f-4490-a450-338c7e35651d","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 13th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-13T09:46:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-13 09:46:25","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7087796","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7087796","identity":"rs-7087796","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}